This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dender
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.07
1.27
0.87
1.87
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.21
1.31
0.92
1.73
1.55
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.4%
0-1
8.2%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
1-0
7.9%
0-2
6.4%
2-0
6.0%
Lommel United goals ↓
Dender goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
8.2%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.9%
14%
8.4%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.0%
8.1%
5.5%
2.5%
0.8%
3
2.6%
3.5%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lommel United goals (down), columns = Dender goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beerschot VA
1.87
Dender
1.80
Lommel United
1.76
Deinze
1.76
Liège
1.63
Zulte Waregem
1.62
Patro Eisden
1.59
SK Beveren
1.50
Oostende
1.27
Club Brugge II
1.23
KRC Genk II
1.23
K. Lierse S.K.
1.17
RSC Anderlecht II
1.13
Francs Borains
1.07
Seraing United
0.93
Standard Liège II
0.57
Lommel United is 0.04 points worse than Dender in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dender
1.83
Lommel United
1.65
Deinze
1.65
Liège
1.63
Zulte Waregem
1.62
KRC Genk II
1.53
Beerschot VA
1.53
SK Beveren
1.47
K. Lierse S.K.
1.47
Club Brugge II
1.33
RSC Anderlecht II
1.30
Patro Eisden
1.28
Francs Borains
1.27
Seraing United
1.10
Oostende
1.07
Standard Liège II
0.83
Lommel United is 0.19 goals worse than Dender in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beerschot VA
0.97
Lommel United
1.00
Patro Eisden
1.06
Dender
1.07
Zulte Waregem
1.12
Deinze
1.21
Oostende
1.30
SK Beveren
1.33
Liège
1.37
RSC Anderlecht II
1.57
Club Brugge II
1.63
Seraing United
1.70
Francs Borains
1.73
KRC Genk II
1.73
K. Lierse S.K.
1.97
Standard Liège II
2.00
Lommel United is 0.07 goals better than Dender in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Beerschot VA
61%
Lommel United
59%
SK Beveren
55%
Club Brugge II
54%
Zulte Waregem
54%
RSC Anderlecht II
51%
KRC Genk II
50%
Deinze
49%
Dender
49%
K. Lierse S.K.
49%
Seraing United
47%
Francs Borains
46%
Standard Liège II
46%
Liège
45%
Oostende
44%
Patro Eisden
41%
Lommel United is 9.8 percentage points better than Dender in terms of average possession (59% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lommel United
For 5.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dender
For 5.7 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 13.9 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lommel United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.5
9.9
1.1
1.1
1.1
22.1
22.7
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
10.9
11.7
10.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
23.9
25.3
22.8
vs Weaker (21)
9.3
9.3
9.3
1.0
1.0
1.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
% over line
54%
67%
43%
20%
21%
19%
46%
50%
43%
% under line
46%
33%
57%
80%
79%
81%
54%
50%
57%
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dender
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.5
9.9
1.5
1.6
1.4
29.1
29.0
29.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.5
9.5
9.6
1.5
1.9
1.2
29.0
29.0
29.0
vs Weaker (10)
10.5
-
10.5
1.2
0.0
2.0
29.5
-
29.5
% over line
54%
50%
57%
22%
20%
24%
85%
83%
86%
% under line
46%
50%
43%
78%
80%
76%
15%
17%
14%
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Liège
12.5
K. Lierse S.K.
11.4
Beerschot VA
11.3
Seraing United
11.2
Deinze
11.1
Standard Liège II
11.0
Club Brugge II
10.9
Francs Borains
10.7
SK Beveren
10.6
RSC Anderlecht II
10.6
KRC Genk II
10.5
Zulte Waregem
10.3
Lommel United
10.2
Oostende
9.7
Dender
9.7
Patro Eisden
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
KRC Genk II
6.4
RSC Anderlecht II
6.1
K. Lierse S.K.
5.9
Dender
5.6
Liège
5.5
Seraing United
5.5
Standard Liège II
5.2
Francs Borains
5.1
Deinze
5.1
Beerschot VA
5.0
Patro Eisden
5.0
Oostende
4.8
Lommel United
4.7
SK Beveren
4.2
Club Brugge II
4.2
Zulte Waregem
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dender
29.1
Patro Eisden
27.7
Deinze
27.5
RSC Anderlecht II
27.1
Seraing United
26.8
Standard Liège II
26.8
Francs Borains
26.6
KRC Genk II
26.4
Beerschot VA
26.0
K. Lierse S.K.
25.4
Oostende
24.7
SK Beveren
24.6
Liège
24.5
Club Brugge II
23.7
Zulte Waregem
22.6
Lommel United
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.9%
Under 9.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.7%
Under 3.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
80.7%
Under 21.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lommel United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.79
0.36
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.44
0.14
0.29
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.29
1.43
0.43
0.43
0.14
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dender
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.71
0.54
0.38
0.27
1.09
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.17
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lommel United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lommel United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lommel United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lommel United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.00
0.36
0.88
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.94
1.29
0.43
0.56
1.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.36
0.71
0.29
1.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dender) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dender
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.47
0.67
0.47
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.50
0.77
0.54
1.45
0.45
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Lommel United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lommel United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lommel United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lommel United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dender over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lommel United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Arthur Sales38%
Igor Vetokele36%
Zalán Vancsa30%
Lucas Schoofs26%
Leon Lalić25%
Diego Rosa18%
Karim Dermane12%
Juho Talvitie11%
Dries Wouters8%
Amar Ahmed7%
Sam De Grand5%
Kluiverth Aguilar4%
Jari De Busser0%
Stijn Wuytens0%
Alex Granell0%
Rob Nizet0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Jesper Tolinsson0%
Jamal Baptiste0%
Nikola Ivezić0%
Henry Oware0%
Álvaro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leon Lalić50%
Rob Nizet43%
Alex Granell33%
Henry Oware33%
Karim Dermane32%
Sam De Grand30%
Dries Wouters24%
Lucas Schoofs19%
Diego Rosa18%
Jesper Tolinsson13%
Zalán Vancsa11%
Yeboah Amankwah10%
Arthur Sales10%
Kluiverth Aguilar8%
Juho Talvitie7%
Jari De Busser0%
Igor Vetokele0%
Stijn Wuytens0%
Jamal Baptiste0%
Nikola Ivezić0%
Amar Ahmed0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam De Grand25%
Leon Lalić25%
Alex Granell21%
Lucas Schoofs19%
Diego Rosa18%
Zalán Vancsa11%
Karim Dermane8%
Juho Talvitie7%
Arthur Sales5%
Kluiverth Aguilar4%
Dries Wouters0%
Jari De Busser0%
Igor Vetokele0%
Stijn Wuytens0%
Rob Nizet0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Jesper Tolinsson0%
Jamal Baptiste0%
Nikola Ivezić0%
Amar Ahmed0%
Henry Oware0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Arthur Sales38%
Zalán Vancsa22%
Lucas Schoofs19%
Igor Vetokele18%
Diego Rosa9%
Juho Talvitie7%
Dries Wouters0%
Jari De Busser0%
Stijn Wuytens0%
Alex Granell0%
Kluiverth Aguilar0%
Rob Nizet0%
Yeboah Amankwah0%
Jesper Tolinsson0%
Jamal Baptiste0%
Nikola Ivezić0%
Karim Dermane0%
Sam De Grand0%
Amar Ahmed0%
Leon Lalić0%
Henry Oware0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Dender
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruny Nsimba35%
Ali Akman25%
Arnaud Dony20%
Jordy Soladio19%
Michael Lallemand18%
Desmond Acquah17%
Olivier Myny14%
Kobe Cools12%
Ridwane M'Barki10%
Lennard Hens10%
Stefano Marzo9%
Dylan Ragolle6%
Jasper Van Oudenhove6%
Nicolas Antoine Rajsel5%
Ibrahima Sory Sankhon0%
Nathan Rodes0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Gilles Ruyssen0%
Xavier Gies0%
Kéres Masangu0%
Fabio Ferraro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joedrick Pupe38%
Stefano Marzo27%
Olivier Myny27%
Bruny Nsimba26%
Dylan Ragolle25%
Ridwane M'Barki24%
Lennard Hens24%
Gilles Ruyssen17%
Xavier Gies17%
Kobe Cools17%
Jordy Soladio14%
Kéres Masangu11%
Nathan Rodes9%
Fabio Ferraro7%
Nicolas Antoine Rajsel5%
Ibrahima Sory Sankhon0%
Ali Akman0%
Michael Lallemand0%
Jasper Van Oudenhove0%
Arnaud Dony0%
Desmond Acquah0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ridwane M'Barki33%
Lennard Hens33%
Stefano Marzo27%
Nicolas Antoine Rajsel11%
Ali Akman10%
Jordy Soladio10%
Bruny Nsimba9%
Olivier Myny5%
Ibrahima Sory Sankhon0%
Nathan Rodes0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Dylan Ragolle0%
Michael Lallemand0%
Gilles Ruyssen0%
Xavier Gies0%
Kobe Cools0%
Jasper Van Oudenhove0%
Kéres Masangu0%
Fabio Ferraro0%
Arnaud Dony0%
Desmond Acquah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bruny Nsimba43%
Lennard Hens33%
Ridwane M'Barki19%
Ali Akman15%
Nicolas Antoine Rajsel11%
Jordy Soladio10%
Gilles Ruyssen6%
Ibrahima Sory Sankhon0%
Nathan Rodes0%
Stefano Marzo0%
Olivier Myny0%
Joedrick Pupe0%
Dylan Ragolle0%
Michael Lallemand0%
Xavier Gies0%
Kobe Cools0%
Jasper Van Oudenhove0%
Kéres Masangu0%
Fabio Ferraro0%
Arnaud Dony0%
Desmond Acquah0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (25)
€26m
ZW (27)
€20m
SB (24)
€12m
BV (26)
€9m
DEN (19)
€8m
RAI (19)
€8m
KGI (18)
€7m
PE (25)
€7m
KLS (21)
€5m
FB (22)
€4m
SU (15)
€3m
Lommel United's squad is €18m more valuable than Dender's (€26m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZW (10)
€8m
LU (10)
€8m
SB (9)
€4m
BV (13)
€4m
RAI (8)
€3m
KGI (9)
€2m
KLS (7)
€2m
FB (8)
€2m
DEN (4)
€1m
PE (7)
€1m
SU (4)
€1m
Lommel United's attack is €6m more valuable than Dender's (€8m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LU (5)
€15m
ZW (4)
€4m
DEN (6)
€3m
SB (5)
€3m
PE (7)
€2m
KGI (1)
€2m
RAI (3)
€2m
FB (5)
€1m
SU (3)
€1m
KLS (3)
€1m
BV (2)
€0m
Lommel United's midfield is €11m more valuable than Dender's (€15m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZW (13)
€9m
BV (11)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
LU (10)
€4m
DEN (9)
€4m
PE (11)
€3m
RAI (8)
€3m
KLS (11)
€3m
KGI (8)
€2m
FB (9)
€2m
SU (8)
€2m
Lommel United and Dender have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Deinze
Beerschot VA
Zulte Waregem
Patro Eisden
Liège
SK Beveren
Oostende
KRC Genk II
Club Brugge II
K. Lierse S.K.
RSC Anderlecht II
Francs Borains
Seraing United
Standard Liège II