PythiaFootballBETA
Defensive solidity will set the tone as the model projects a tight affair, with an expected 1.9 goals and a most likely total of two. The probability of a 0-0 stalemate sits at 15.7%, the 1-1 draw at 14.8%, and the 0-1 result at 13.3%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, a 13.3% chance. The favoured outcome is an away win, with the model assigning 36% to Estac Troyes, 34% to a draw, and 30% to a Lorient victory.
Lorient, at home, averages 1.5 goals for and 1.5 against against similar opposition, while Estac Troyes, on the road, averages 1.75 goals for and 0.88 against. Recent form shows Lorient coming off a defeat, whereas Troyes enter on a win.
The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (91.9%), Under 3.5 (86.7%), Over 2.5 cards (81.6%), Under 11.5 corners (73.2%), Under 5.5 cards (71.9%). The other picks, Over 21.5 fouls (83.5%) and Over 23.5 fouls (71.4%), are expected to miss.
The model’s prediction of an away win proved accurate as Estac Troyes edged Lorient 0-1, extending their winning run. The pre-match favourite was the away victory, assigned a 36% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The most likely scoreline was 0-1, matching the final result. The suggested selections performed well: Over 19.5 fouls hit with a 91.9% probability, Under 3.5 hit at 86.7%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 81.6%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 73.2%, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 71.9%. Over 21.5 fouls and Over 23.5 fouls missed, with probabilities of 83.5% and 71.4% respectively. The model’s overall accuracy was solid, with most picks delivering as forecasted.
Lorient| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.07 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 1.67 | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 1.33 | 0.86 | 1.09 | 0.82 | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Estac Troyes| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.80 | 1.33 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.60 | 1.07 | 1.43 | 1.29 | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.00 | 0.31 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 0.86 | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Estac Troyes goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 16% | 13% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 12% | 15% | 6.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
LorientEstac TroyesLorient| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 28.7 | 27.6 | 29.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 8.6 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 30.6 | 31.9 | 29.2 |
| vs Weaker (34) | 9.2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 27.7 | 25.5 | 29.8 |
| % over line | 40% | 46% | 35% | 72% | 71% | 73% | 86% | 79% | 92% |
| % under line | 60% | 54% | 65% | 28% | 29% | 27% | 14% | 21% | 8% |
Estac Troyes| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 27.9 | 28.2 | 27.5 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 13.8 | 12.0 | 19.0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 26.8 | 27.0 | 26.0 |
| vs Similar (23) | 10.2 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 27.3 | 27.3 | 27.4 |
| vs Weaker (23) | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 28.6 | 29.5 | 27.8 |
| % over line | 46% | 42% | 50% | 62% | 58% | 67% | 90% | 88% | 92% |
| % under line | 54% | 58% | 50% | 38% | 42% | 33% | 10% | 12% | 8% |
Lorient| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.43 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 1.20 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 0.76 | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Estac Troyes| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.37 | 0.67 | 0.27 | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 0.29 | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.46 | 0.23 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Lorient| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 0.89 | 0.89 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (21) | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Estac Troyes| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.07 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.80 | 0.53 | 0.71 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 0.12 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.54 | 0.08 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 0.57 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 73% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 91.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 86.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 83.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 71.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 71.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/19 | H | 0-3 | |
| 23/11/18 | A | 2-0 | |
| 27/02/16 | A | 0-1 | |
| 07/11/15 | H | 4-1 |
Lorient| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/19 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/10/19 | H | 0-0 | |
| 27/09/19 | A | 0-1 | |
| 23/09/19 | H | 2-1 | |
| 14/09/19 | A | 0-2 | |
| 31/08/19 | H | 0-1 | |
| 23/08/19 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/08/19 | H | 1-0 | |
| 09/08/19 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/08/19 | A | 1-2 |
Estac Troyes| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/19 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/10/19 | A | 1-0 | |
| 27/09/19 | H | 1-2 | |
| 20/09/19 | A | 1-2 | |
| 13/09/19 | H | 2-1 | |
| 30/08/19 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/08/19 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/08/19 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/08/19 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/08/19 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Lorient | 28 | 54 | 61% | 1.9 | 45 | 25 | +20 | 2.5 | 64% | 57% | 21% | 9.9 | 50% | 4.2 | 46% | 25.8 | 86% | 87 | 20 | 32 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.9 | - |
| 2 |  Lens | 28 | 53 | 54% | 1.9 | 39 | 24 | +15 | 2.2 | 68% | 39% | 21% | 8.5 | 32% | 4.9 | 75% | 31.6 | 100% | 187 | 52 | 24 | 112 | 1.4 | 0.9 | - |
| 3 |  Ajaccio | 28 | 52 | 54% | 1.9 | 38 | 22 | +16 | 2.1 | 57% | 36% | 21% | 9.2 | 50% | 4.1 | 50% | 26.2 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Estac Troyes | 28 | 51 | 57% | 1.8 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 2.1 | 61% | 39% | 11% | 10.2 | 57% | 4.7 | 71% | 27.9 | 82% | 36 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 1.2 | 0.9 | - |
| 5 |  Clermont Foot | 28 | 50 | 50% | 1.8 | 35 | 25 | +10 | 2.1 | 64% | 36% | 18% | 9.1 | 43% | 4.8 | 75% | 27.2 | 86% | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1.2 | 0.9 | - |
| 6 |  Le Havre | 28 | 44 | 39% | 1.6 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 2.2 | 71% | 43% | 21% | 9.8 | 50% | 4.4 | 54% | 25.7 | 96% | 55 | 9 | 23 | 23 | 1.4 | 0.9 | - |
| 7 |  Valenciennes | 28 | 42 | 39% | 1.5 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 1.6 | 43% | 18% | 11% | 9.8 | 54% | 4.6 | 64% | 28.1 | 86% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 |  Guingamp | 28 | 39 | 36% | 1.4 | 40 | 33 | +7 | 2.6 | 71% | 46% | 25% | 10.5 | 54% | 3.7 | 50% | 25.9 | 82% | 11 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 |  Grenoble | 28 | 35 | 25% | 1.2 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 2.0 | 61% | 32% | 21% | 9.4 | 46% | 3.8 | 54% | 28.4 | 93% | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | C Chambly | 28 | 35 | 32% | 1.2 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 2.1 | 54% | 43% | 18% | 7.6 | 21% | 4.6 | 71% | 28.3 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | - |
| 11 |  Auxerre | 28 | 34 | 29% | 1.2 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 2.2 | 61% | 36% | 29% | 9.4 | 54% | 4.0 | 54% | 26.0 | 82% | 84 | 23 | 28 | 33 | 1.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 12 |  Nancy | 28 | 34 | 21% | 1.2 | 27 | 26 | +1 | 1.9 | 71% | 32% | 4% | 9.6 | 43% | 4.6 | 68% | 30.0 | 96% | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | - |
| 13 |  Caen | 28 | 34 | 29% | 1.2 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 2.4 | 68% | 43% | 14% | 9.2 | 39% | 4.4 | 68% | 29.3 | 93% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 14 |  Sochaux | 28 | 34 | 29% | 1.2 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 2.1 | 71% | 25% | 18% | 8.7 | 36% | 4.4 | 71% | 27.9 | 86% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | - |
| 15 |  Chateauroux | 28 | 34 | 32% | 1.2 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 2.1 | 61% | 39% | 11% | 9.6 | 54% | 4.3 | 54% | 25.4 | 82% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 16 |  Rodez | 28 | 32 | 29% | 1.1 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 2.3 | 71% | 46% | 11% | 9.2 | 39% | 4.5 | 64% | 26.7 | 82% | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | - |
| 17 |  Paris FC | 28 | 28 | 25% | 1.0 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 2.2 | 61% | 36% | 11% | 8.8 | 39% | 4.9 | 71% | 29.8 | 96% | 176 | 59 | 54 | 62 | 0.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 18 |  Niort | 28 | 26 | 21% | 0.9 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 2.5 | 64% | 36% | 25% | 9.1 | 43% | 3.8 | 50% | 28.4 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | - |
| 19 |  Le Mans | 28 | 26 | 25% | 0.9 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 2.7 | 71% | 54% | 21% | 7.7 | 21% | 4.2 | 61% | 30.2 | 86% | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 1.1 | 1.6 | - |
| 20 |  Orleans | 28 | 19 | 14% | 0.7 | 21 | 43 | -22 | 2.3 | 57% | 43% | 25% | 9.5 | 39% | 3.8 | 50% | 27.5 | 96% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.5 | - |