This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
1.12
0.44
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.48
1.00
0.36
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
1.00
1.75
0.75
0.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lugo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (32%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.3%
Under 1.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.6%
@ 2.59-18.8%
Under 2.5
82.4%
@ 1.48+18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
5.8%
Under 3.5
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
27.1%
No
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
24.9%
1-0
18.0%
0-1
13.7%
1-1
13.3%
2-0 ✓
7.8%
2-1
4.9%
0-2
4.7%
1-2
3.8%
Lugo goals ↓
Burgos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
25%
14%
4.7%
1.0%
0.2%
1
18%
13%
3.8%
0.8%
0.1%
2
7.8%
4.9%
1.5%
0.3%
0.1%
3
2.1%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
4
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lugo goals (down), columns = Burgos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Granada CF
1.79
Levante
1.72
Alaves
1.72
Las Palmas
1.71
Eibar
1.64
Albacete
1.52
FC Andorra
1.40
Oviedo
1.40
FC Cartagena
1.38
Tenerife
1.36
Burgos
1.29
Racing Santander
1.29
Leganes
1.26
Zaragoza
1.26
Huesca
1.24
Mirandes
1.24
Villarreal II
1.19
Sporting Gijon
1.19
Malaga
1.05
Ponferradina
1.05
Ibiza
0.81
Lugo
0.74
Lugo is 0.55 points worse than Burgos in terms of average points per game (0.74 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Albacete
1.34
Granada CF
1.31
Villarreal II
1.17
Las Palmas
1.17
Mirandes
1.14
Levante
1.13
FC Andorra
1.12
FC Cartagena
1.12
Alaves
1.11
Eibar
1.05
Sporting Gijon
1.02
Tenerife
1.00
Ponferradina
0.95
Zaragoza
0.95
Racing Santander
0.93
Malaga
0.88
Leganes
0.88
Huesca
0.86
Oviedo
0.81
Burgos
0.79
Ibiza
0.79
Lugo
0.64
Lugo is 0.14 goals worse than Burgos in terms of goals scored per game (0.64 vs 0.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Las Palmas
0.69
Levante
0.70
Granada CF
0.71
Alaves
0.74
Burgos
0.83
Oviedo
0.83
Huesca
0.86
Tenerife
0.88
FC Andorra
0.88
Eibar
0.89
Zaragoza
0.93
Racing Santander
0.95
Leganes
1.00
Malaga
1.05
Sporting Gijon
1.14
FC Cartagena
1.17
Albacete
1.20
Ponferradina
1.26
Mirandes
1.29
Villarreal II
1.31
Lugo
1.36
Ibiza
1.57
Lugo is 0.52 goals worse than Burgos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lugo
For 2.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 13.5 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burgos
For 5.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 13.9 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lugo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.7
8.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
28.1
27.7
28.4
vs Stronger (26)
8.8
9.2
8.5
4.0
3.9
4.0
28.4
27.3
29.5
vs Similar (24)
9.5
10.3
8.7
3.3
3.1
3.4
27.7
28.1
27.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
53%
40%
50%
42%
58%
87%
79%
95%
% under line
54%
47%
60%
50%
58%
42%
13%
21%
5%
This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.1
9.8
3.3
3.2
3.4
24.9
24.9
24.9
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
7.0
10.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
22.0
24.0
20.0
vs Similar (32)
8.9
8.2
9.5
3.0
2.9
3.1
24.8
24.8
24.8
vs Weaker (16)
10.4
10.7
10.1
3.9
4.0
3.9
25.5
25.1
25.9
% over line
41%
35%
47%
52%
50%
54%
67%
70%
63%
% under line
59%
65%
53%
48%
50%
46%
33%
30%
37%
This opponent (Lugo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mirandes
9.9
Huesca
9.9
Alaves
9.9
Ibiza
9.7
Zaragoza
9.6
Granada CF
9.3
Ponferradina
9.3
Eibar
9.2
Sporting Gijon
9.2
Malaga
9.2
Burgos
9.2
Lugo
9.1
Levante
9.0
Racing Santander
8.8
Oviedo
8.8
Tenerife
8.7
Las Palmas
8.7
Leganes
8.6
FC Cartagena
8.5
Albacete
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.0
Granada CF
5.6
Malaga
5.6
Albacete
5.5
Las Palmas
5.4
Levante
5.4
Tenerife
5.3
Zaragoza
5.1
Oviedo
5.0
FC Cartagena
4.9
Mirandes
4.9
Leganes
4.9
Huesca
4.8
Ponferradina
4.8
Alaves
4.7
Sporting Gijon
4.7
Lugo
4.6
Eibar
4.3
Ibiza
4.2
Burgos
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Racing Santander
33.9
Las Palmas
30.7
Leganes
30.0
Albacete
29.4
FC Cartagena
28.9
Ibiza
28.1
Huesca
28.1
Malaga
28.0
Tenerife
28.0
Lugo
27.7
Oviedo
27.2
Alaves
26.7
Zaragoza
26.6
Granada CF
25.9
Mirandes
25.6
Levante
25.3
Burgos
24.6
Eibar
24.6
Ponferradina
24.4
Sporting Gijon
24.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.4%
Under 9.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
65.3%
Under 3.5
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.1%
Under 21.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lugo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.43
0.43
0.14
0.31
0.69
vs Stronger (16)
0.25
0.38
0.25
0.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.27
0.56
0.19
0.21
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.29
0.24
0.36
0.18
0.20
0.30
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
1.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Lugo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lugo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lugo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.29
0.71
0.88
1.19
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.88
0.38
0.50
1.12
1.25
vs Similar (14)
0.43
1.07
0.17
1.00
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Burgos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burgos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.56
0.25
0.36
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.24
0.64
0.18
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Lugo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lugo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lugo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Burgos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
82.4%
1.48
-
-
-
-
-
+18.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS No
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lugo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Ramos25%
Sebas Moyano12%
Alberto Rodríguez8%
Manu Barreiro6%
Javier Avilés6%
Xavi Torres6%
Josep Señé6%
Jaume Cuéllar5%
Juanpe4%
Ángel Baena3%
Miguel Loureiro2%
Marko Šćepović0%
El Hacen0%
Bruno Pirri0%
Óscar Whalley0%
Aleksandar Pantić0%
Álex Pérez0%
Andoni López0%
Neyder Lozano0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Jordi Calavera0%
Pablo Clavería0%
Marc Carbo0%
Jose Ricardo0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
Idrissa Thiam0%
Dani Vidal0%
Cesar Rodriguez0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Gui0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Castrín0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neyder Lozano56%
Patrick Sequeira50%
Jose Ricardo40%
Bruno Pirri38%
Aleksandar Pantić30%
Juanpe26%
Miguel Loureiro25%
Cesar Rodriguez25%
Xavi Torres24%
Pablo Clavería24%
Gui23%
El Hacen19%
Josep Señé18%
Jaume Cuéllar16%
Jordi Calavera15%
Castrín14%
Alberto Rodríguez14%
Andoni López12%
Chris Ramos12%
Marc Carbo10%
Manu Barreiro9%
Javier Avilés6%
Ángel Baena3%
Óscar Whalley3%
Sebas Moyano2%
Marko Šćepović0%
Álex Pérez0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Idrissa Thiam0%
Dani Vidal0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Idrissa Thiam17%
Jaume Cuéllar11%
Jose Ricardo10%
Juanpe9%
Gui8%
Manu Barreiro6%
Ángel Baena6%
Pablo Clavería3%
Miguel Loureiro2%
Marko Šćepović0%
El Hacen0%
Bruno Pirri0%
Óscar Whalley0%
Aleksandar Pantić0%
Álex Pérez0%
Andoni López0%
Neyder Lozano0%
Xavi Torres0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Jordi Calavera0%
Javier Avilés0%
Chris Ramos0%
Josep Señé0%
Sebas Moyano0%
Marc Carbo0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
Alberto Rodríguez0%
Dani Vidal0%
Cesar Rodriguez0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Castrín0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Chris Ramos46%
Sebas Moyano15%
Javier Avilés12%
Juanpe9%
Manu Barreiro6%
Pablo Clavería3%
Ángel Baena3%
Marko Šćepović0%
El Hacen0%
Bruno Pirri0%
Óscar Whalley0%
Aleksandar Pantić0%
Álex Pérez0%
Andoni López0%
Neyder Lozano0%
Xavi Torres0%
Orest Lebedenko0%
Miguel Loureiro0%
Jordi Calavera0%
Josep Señé0%
Marc Carbo0%
Jose Ricardo0%
Patrick Sequeira0%
Alberto Rodríguez0%
Idrissa Thiam0%
Dani Vidal0%
Cesar Rodriguez0%
Jesús Fernández0%
Jaume Cuéllar0%
Gui0%
Leandro Antonetti0%
Castrín0%
Burgos
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Curro26%
Gaspar Campos24%
Álex Bermejo Escribano11%
Juan Artola9%
Mourad El Ghezouani9%
Miguel Muñoz Mora8%
Grego Sierra4%
Unai Elguezabal3%
Miguel Atienza2%
José Antonio Caro0%
Fran García Solsona0%
Pablo Valcarce0%
Matos0%
Saúl Berjón0%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada0%
Sergio Castel Martínez0%
David Goldar0%
Dani Barrio0%
Juan Hernández García0%
Míchel Zabaco0%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta0%
Jesús Areso0%
Raúl Navarro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Grego Sierra52%
Unai Elguezabal31%
Miguel Atienza28%
Miguel Muñoz Mora26%
Sergio Castel Martínez20%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta20%
Matos18%
Álex Bermejo Escribano16%
Raúl Navarro16%
Curro15%
Mourad El Ghezouani14%
David Goldar12%
Pablo Valcarce11%
Jesús Areso11%
Juan Artola9%
Fran García Solsona7%
Míchel Zabaco7%
Gaspar Campos3%
José Antonio Caro2%
Saúl Berjón0%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada0%
Dani Barrio0%
Juan Hernández García0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matos14%
Jesús Areso14%
Saúl Berjón11%
Sergio Castel Martínez10%
Pablo Valcarce8%
Fran García Solsona7%
Curro6%
Álex Bermejo Escribano3%
Raúl Navarro3%
Miguel Muñoz Mora3%
Miguel Atienza2%
José Antonio Caro0%
Unai Elguezabal0%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada0%
Grego Sierra0%
David Goldar0%
Mourad El Ghezouani0%
Dani Barrio0%
Juan Hernández García0%
Míchel Zabaco0%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta0%
Gaspar Campos0%
Juan Artola0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Bermejo Escribano24%
Curro18%
Sergio Castel Martínez10%
Gaspar Campos7%
Borja Gonzalez Tejada4%
Juan Hernández García4%
Juan Artola3%
Miguel Muñoz Mora3%
José Antonio Caro0%
Fran García Solsona0%
Pablo Valcarce0%
Matos0%
Saúl Berjón0%
Unai Elguezabal0%
Grego Sierra0%
David Goldar0%
Mourad El Ghezouani0%
Dani Barrio0%
Míchel Zabaco0%
Aitor Córdoba Querejeta0%
Miguel Atienza0%
Jesús Areso0%
Raúl Navarro0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Levante
Alaves
Granada CF
Las Palmas
Eibar
Albacete
FC Andorra
Oviedo
FC Cartagena
Tenerife
Racing Santander
Zaragoza
Leganes
Huesca
Mirandes
Sporting Gijon
Villarreal II
Malaga
Ponferradina
Ibiza