Luton are expected to emerge victorious in this match, having been on a 4-game winning run, with a strong recent form of WWWWD. They've been scoring an average of 2.1 goals at home, conceding just 1.0. Their home win percentage stands at 51%, with a 28% chance of a draw and 21% of an Notts County win.
The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13.2% probability. Luton's home scoring and conceding rates are impressive, while Notts County's away scoring average is 0.8 goals, and they concede 1.2 goals on the road, against opponents of similar strength.
The model's selection is the home win, with the model also backing the Under 3.5 goals selection with a 75.4% probability, and the Over 1.5 goals selection with a 72.8% probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Luton, fell short of the expected 2-2 draw, leaving the model’s call wrong. The final score of 2-2 confirmed a draw, matching the model’s prediction of a draw in the actual result. The model had picked a home win with a 51 % probability, but this was missed. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.6 %, Under 6.5 hit at 98.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.5 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.3 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.2 %, and Under 5.5 hit at 95.7 %. Both sides remained unbeaten in their last five, with Luton’s run extending after the 2-2 result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Luton win✗ Miss
50.9%
Avg Implied 58.3% · @ 1.59
Edge
-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.63
Betano
1.62
888Sport
1.62
Dafabet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.99
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.23
Betfair
4.20
Dafabet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Notts County win✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied 18.3% · @ 5.08
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.51
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.21
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Luton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.23
2.07
1.14
1.56
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.08
2.17
0.67
1.00
1.43
vs Weaker (17)
2.00
1.35
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.22
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.07
1.80
0.93
1.20
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (12)
2.08
0.83
2.67
0.83
1.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.8%
@ 1.21-4.1%
Under 1.5
27.2%
@ 4.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.31
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.0%
@ 1.70-9.1%
Under 2.5
54.0%
@ 2.09+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
888Sport
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
Betfair
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.6%
@ 2.70-9.9%
Under 3.5
75.4%
@ 1.42+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Pinnacle
2.77
Betano
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.6%
@ 1.72-4.2%
No
50.4%
@ 2.00+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Unibet
1.74
888Sport
1.73
Betfair
1.73
No
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 7.13+6.9%
1-0
11.5%@ 7.19+5.3%
2-0
10.0%@ 7.67+4.2%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.42+3.4%
0-0
9.3%@ 11.91+5.5%
0-1
6.4%@ 13.80+3.2%
1-2
5.6%@ 14.39+2.5%
3-0
5.3%@ 11.48+1.4%
Luton goals ↓
Notts County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
6.4%
3.6%
1.1%
0.3%
1
12%
13%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10%
9.4%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.3%
4.9%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.1%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Luton goals (down), columns = Notts County goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Luton is 0.44 points better than Notts County in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Luton is 0.36 goals better than Notts County in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Luton is 0.32 goals better than Notts County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Luton
For 6.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 13.4 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Notts County
For 3.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 13.3 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Luton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.6
9.3
3.6
3.4
3.7
23.9
23.7
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
11.1
13.4
9.1
3.9
3.3
4.4
23.7
23.0
24.4
vs Weaker (27)
9.7
9.9
9.5
3.3
3.6
3.1
24.0
24.2
23.7
% over line
57%
65%
50%
50%
39%
59%
63%
61%
65%
% under line
43%
35%
50%
50%
61%
41%
37%
39%
35%
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.0
9.6
4.3
4.2
4.4
24.4
24.6
24.1
vs Stronger (2)
7.5
8.0
7.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
25.0
26.0
24.0
vs Similar (26)
8.6
8.0
9.2
4.5
4.0
4.9
26.0
26.1
25.8
vs Weaker (22)
10.3
10.2
10.4
4.3
4.6
3.9
22.5
22.8
22.1
% over line
46%
44%
48%
64%
64%
64%
74%
76%
72%
% under line
54%
56%
52%
36%
36%
36%
26%
24%
28%
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Leicester
11.0
Barnsley
10.9
Wigan
10.7
Blackpool
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Bromley
10.5
Sheffield Weds
10.3
Luton
10.3
Burton
10.3
Wycombe
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Doncaster
10.0
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
Reading
9.3
Notts County
9.3
Cambridge
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
9.1
Stevenage
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Notts County
4.3
Peterboro
4.3
Huddersfield
4.1
Bradford
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Stevenage
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Leicester
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Burton
3.6
Barnsley
3.5
Oxford
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.1
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.6
Notts County
24.4
Plymouth
24.4
Stevenage
24.4
Huddersfield
24.3
Peterboro
23.9
Luton
23.8
Milton Keynes Dons
23.6
Blackpool
23.5
Wigan
23.3
Leyton Orient
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.0
Doncaster
22.6
Cambridge
22.6
Reading
22.6
Mansfield
22.1
Leicester
22.0
Sheffield Weds
22.0
Burton
21.9
Oxford
21.9
Bromley
21.9
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
21.0
Barnsley
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.4%
@ 1.79+9.5%
Under 9.5
38.6%
@ 1.93-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Under
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Unibet
1.96
1xBet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 3.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.6%
Under 21.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Luton or Draw✓ Hit
78.6%
Avg Implied 81.2% · @ 1.15
Edge
-2.5%
51%
28%
21%
covers Luton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Luton or Notts County✗ Miss
72.3%
Avg Implied 77.0% · @ 1.21
Edge
-4.7%
51%
28%
21%
covers Luton + Notts County
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw or Notts County✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied 41.8% · @ 2.23
Edge
+7.3%
51%
28%
21%
covers Draw + Notts County
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Luton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.3%
@ 1.11-4.3%
Under
20.7%
@ 5.67+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Under
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.15
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Luton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.7%
@ 1.63-10.7%
Under
53.3%
@ 2.18+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
888Sport
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.63
Unibet
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Luton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.0%
@ 2.95-10.5%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.36+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
888Sport
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Under
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
Luton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 6.25-7.4%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.10+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
5.90
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Notts County over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.0%
@ 1.51-0.6%
Under
39.0%
@ 2.41+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.52
888Sport
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.42
Notts County over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.3%
@ 3.54-2.0%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.26+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.70
1xBet
3.64
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Notts County over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 9.76-2.6%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.04+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
888Sport
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Notts County over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 22.83-2.7%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Luton, so a minus line means Luton give that many goals of a start and Notts County receive them. At -1, Luton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Luton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Luton)Actual: Notts County
Luton -2
11.4%
@ 5.03-6.4%
Draw -2
16.0%
@ 4.56-3.7%
Notts County +2
72.6%
@ 1.44+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Draw
Marathonbet
4.85
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Away
Superbet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Handicap -1 (Luton)Actual: Notts County
Luton -1
27.4%
@ 2.58-7.5%
Draw -1
23.6%
@ 3.54-1.8%
Notts County +1
49.1%
@ 2.25+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.55
Superbet
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.45
Away
Marathonbet
2.31
Betfair
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Handicap +1 (Luton)Actual: Luton
Luton +1
78.6%
@ 1.15+1.3%
Draw +1
13.6%
@ 6.24-0.6%
Notts County -1
7.7%
@ 10.46-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.40
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.80
Handicap +2 (Luton)Actual: Luton
Luton +2
92.3%
@ 1.03+1.7%
Draw +2
5.7%
@ 14.33-0.8%
Notts County -2
2.0%
@ 32.33-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Luton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.29
0.50
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.69
1.50
0.50
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.65
1.12
0.50
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
1.00
0.47
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.56
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.33
1.17
0.50
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.32-3.8%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 3.21+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Under
William Hil
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
28.1%
@ 2.47-9.5%
Under 1.5
71.9%
@ 1.49+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Pinnacle
2.57
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Under
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.0%
@ 6.10-5.3%
Under 2.5
90.0%
@ 1.10+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
5.95
1xBet
5.95
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Luton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.1%
@ 1.62-20.4%
Under
62.9%
@ 2.18+20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.30
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
Luton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 3.97-14.6%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.21+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.20
Betano
4.10
10Bet
3.95
1xBet
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Under
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Luton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 9.75-8.0%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.03+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Notts County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.5%
@ 2.61+7.9%
Under
56.5%
@ 1.44-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
10Bet
2.65
Betano
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
Superbet
2.57
Under
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Notts County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 9.56+1.4%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.03-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
9.50
10Bet
9.50
Superbet
9.30
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Notts County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 40.00-97.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Luton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.79
0.64
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.67
0.17
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.71
0.88
1.00
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.80
0.47
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.69
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.88
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.50
1.50
0.33
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.1%
Under 1.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.7%
Under 2.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Luton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.03
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.21
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+14.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.9%
1.15
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Superbet
1.16
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.3%
1.11
Betano
1.15
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.0%
1.36
Superbet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.6%
1.15
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.17
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.7%
1.26
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
75.4%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
+9.9%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.0%
1.46
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.46
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.45
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.8%
1.21
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
888Sport
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.6%
1.44
Superbet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
+10.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.3%
1.21
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
-4.7%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.9%
1.49
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Betfair
1.50
+9.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Luton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
N. Wells80%
C. Marshall50%
G. Kodua20%
Benedict Benagr20%
K. Palmer0%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
J. Richards0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Naismith33%
K. Palmer20%
L. Walsh20%
N. Wells20%
G. Johnston20%
Isaiah Jones20%
G. Kodua20%
H. Odoffin0%
H. Ashby0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Benedict Benagr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Palmer20%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
N. Wells0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
G. Kodua0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Benedict Benagr0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
N. Wells40%
Benedict Benagr20%
K. Palmer0%
L. Walsh0%
K. Naismith0%
H. Odoffin0%
G. Johnston0%
H. Ashby0%
Isaiah Jones0%
Joshua Keeley0%
Emilio Lawrence0%
G. Kodua0%
C. Marshall0%
J. Richards0%
Notts County
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Roberts50%
Oliver Cooper50%
Luka Smyth33%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
H. Mustapha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Lipsiuc50%
Luka Smyth33%
H. Mustapha33%
J. Gibbons25%
J. Bedeau25%
Oliver Cooper25%
J. Evans25%
C. Roberts0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Conor Grant0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
Lucas Ness0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
N. Tsaroulla75%
C. Roberts25%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
Luka Smyth0%
H. Mustapha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luka Smyth67%
H. Mustapha33%
Conor Grant25%
C. Roberts0%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Oliver Cooper0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Luton's squad is €23m more valuable than Notts County's (€29m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Luton's attack is €11m more valuable than Notts County's (€13m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Luton's midfield is €2m more valuable than Notts County's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Luton's defence is €10m more valuable than Notts County's (€12m vs €2m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Barnsley
Cambridge
Leyton Orient
Stockport
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe