

Maccabi Tel Aviv is the clear favourite to win against Sheriff Tiraspol, with a 74% chance of victory at home. The model rates them highly due to their strong home record, scoring 2 goals on average and conceding only 1 against weaker opponents. In contrast, Sheriff Tiraspol's recent form is inconsistent, coming off a win but also a defeat in their last 5 matches.
The model predicts a 17% chance of a draw and a 9% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.4, with an average of 3 goals as the most likely total. The most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 11%.
Maccabi Tel Aviv's home scoring and conceding form is strong, while Sheriff Tiraspol's away scoring and conceding form is weaker. The model's selection is the Home win, with a 73.9% probability. The Home win is also the model's pick, suggesting it is the most likely match result.
The model also suggests the Over 1.5 selection, with an 86.1% probability, indicating an edge of 6%.
The win extends Maccabi Tel Aviv's run of inconsistent form, having just come off a defeat. The final score of 1-0 was a far cry from the expected total of 3.4 goals, with the actual result being a home win. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 74%. The model's call was also correct, as it was the favourite. The model's selection, Home win, hit, with a probability of 73.9%. Over 1.5 missed, with a probability of 86.1%.
Maccabi Tel Aviv| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.47 | 1.79 | 1.14 | 1.94 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 2.50 | - | - | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (8) | 1.38 | 2.00 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 2.20 | 1.15 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.40 | 1.30 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
Sheriff Tiraspol| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 0.90 | 1.69 | 0.81 | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 3.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.83 | 0.39 | 2.00 | 0.44 | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
| Sheriff Tiraspol goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 9.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Sheriff Tiraspol
Maccabi Tel Aviv| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 29.4 | 29.1 | 29.8 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 7.4 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 28.4 | 24.0 | 29.5 |
| vs Similar (14) | 10.6 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 28.0 | 27.9 | 28.2 |
| vs Weaker (31) | 9.1 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 30.8 | 30.8 | 30.9 |
| % over line | 46% | 44% | 47% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 97% | 94% | 100% |
| % under line | 54% | 56% | 53% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 3% | 6% | 0% |
Sheriff Tiraspol| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | - | 11.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 24.0 | - | 24.0 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 11.0 | - | 11.0 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 24.0 | - | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (15) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (30) | - | - | - | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 100% | - | 100% | 4% | 8% | 0% | 100% | - | 100% |
| % under line | 0% | - | 0% | 96% | 92% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86.1% | 1.16 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | +5.8% | ✗ Miss |
| Home win | 73.9% | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.34 | +4.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/26 | A | 0-5 |
Maccabi Tel Aviv| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 19/05/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 05/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 4-2 | |
| 28/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-3 |
Sheriff Tiraspol| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 23/07/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 19/07/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 12/07/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 1.2 | 25% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 67% | 16.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | - |
| 2 | Anderlecht | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 50% | 5.3 | 100% | 30.0 | 100% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 4.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 67% | 38.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 7.0 | 0% | 2.0 | 33% | 21.0 | 0% | 40 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 5 | Benfica | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 4.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 8.0 | 0% | 4.7 | 100% | 24.0 | 100% | 288 | 105 | 93 | 90 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 6 | 100% | 3.0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 11.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | 23.0 | 100% | 53 | 21 | 8 | 23 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 38% |
| 7 | PAOK | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 67% | 38.0 | 100% | 96 | 50 | 24 | 23 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 8 | Hradec Králové | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 11.0 | 50% | 4.3 | 67% | 20.5 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Qarabag | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 1.0 | 33% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | 6.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 1.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 50% | 25% | 4.0 | 0% | 6.3 | 67% | 38.0 | 100% | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Pafos | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 14.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 100% | 28 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 12 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 13.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 100% | 192 | 93 | 40 | 59 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 13 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | 26.0 | 100% | 62 | 43 | 2 | 17 | 1.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 8.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | 34.0 | 100% | 37 | 15 | 9 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 15 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | 39.0 | 100% | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | - |
| 16 | Saburtalo | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 50% | 46.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | - |
| 17 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 18 | FC Thun | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 10.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0% | 30 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 2.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 19 | Žilina | 1 | 3 | 100% | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 20 | Shamrock Rovers | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 21 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 10.0 | 100% | 4.0 | 100% | 20.0 | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 2.5 | - |
| 22 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 15.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 23 | FC ST. Gallen | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | - | 0% | 41 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 24 | Twente | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | 2.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 84 | 26 | 13 | 45 | 1.5 | 2.0 | - |
| 25 | KuPS | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 8.0 | 0% | 3.0 | 0% | 34.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 26 | Rangers | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 0% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.0 | 100% | 26.0 | 100% | 127 | 59 | 28 | 40 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 27 | Larne | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 0% | 12.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 50% | 46.0 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 28 | Gornik Zabrze | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 7.0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 29 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 29 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 9.0 | 0% | 7.0 | 100% | 39.0 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 30 | Hammarby FF | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 10.0 | 100% | 5.5 | 100% | 22.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 31 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | 24.0 | 100% | 33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 1.0 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Trabzonspor | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 116 | 48 | 23 | 45 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 33 | OFI | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 34 | Kairat Almaty | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 35 | Plzen | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 57 | 15 | 22 | 20 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45% |
| 36 | Aarhus | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 37 | Kauno Žalgiris | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 38 | Ararat-Armenia | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 39 | Lillestrom | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 14 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 40 | Mjallby AIF | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 41 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 49% |
| 42 | St. Truiden | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 43 | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 85 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 44% |
| 44 | Tromso | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 9.0 | 0% | 3.5 | 50% | 25.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | - |
| 45 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | 4.5 | 50% | - | 0% | 120 | 62 | 27 | 32 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 46 | Vestri | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 47 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | 4.0 | 50% | - | 0% | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 48 | KI Klaksvik | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 11.0 | 50% | 5.5 | 100% | 23.0 | 100% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |