Mallorca’s dominant home form, averaging 2.33 goals scored and only 0.89 conceded against similar opposition, makes the model pick a home win with an 85 % probability. The opponent, AD Ceuta FC, has struggled away, conceding 2.13 goals per game, and their recent 0-2 loss to Las Palmas shows defensive frailty. The expected total goals is 3.9, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 20 %. The single most probable scoreline is 3-0 for Mallorca, carrying a 11.2 % chance. The probabilities for each result are 85 % home win, 11 % draw, and 5 % away win. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4 %, Home +2 handicap at 98.8 % with a 5 % edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6 % with a 6 % edge, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.6 % with a 6 % edge, Home over 0.5 goals at 95.9 % with a 12 % edge, Under 7.5 at 95.6 %, and Home or Draw at 95.5 % with an 11 % edge.
Results analysis
Mallorca’s recent win extends their strong run, and the model’s prediction of a home victory proved correct as the final score was 3-0. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried an 85% probability and the model’s call was right. Every suggested pick also hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5% confidence, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.5%, Home +2 handicap at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.7%, Home over 0.5 goals at 96.1%, Home or Draw at 95.7%, and Home +1 handicap at 95.7%. The selections performed as expected, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mallorca win✓ Hit
85.3%
Avg Implied 65.9% · @ 1.41
Edge
+19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Dafabet
1.43
Draw✗ Miss
10.4%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.52
Edge
-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.90
1xBet
4.84
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.70
Dafabet
4.70
AD Ceuta FC win✗ Miss
4.3%
Avg Implied 13.4% · @ 6.94
Edge
-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.60
Betano
7.30
Dafabet
7.20
1xBet
7.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mallorca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.47
2.00
1.07
0.75
1.81
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.88
1.40
1.40
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.29
2.33
0.89
0.67
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AD Ceuta FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.70
1.20
1.27
1.20
2.13
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.20
0.33
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
1.32
1.60
1.42
1.33
1.23
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mallorca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.7%
@ 1.21+13.2%
Under 1.5
9.3%
@ 4.15-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.37
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Betano
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
75.0%
@ 1.69+19.2%
Under 2.5
25.0%
@ 2.13-19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Under
1xBet
2.22
Betano
2.22
SBO
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.1%
@ 2.69+20.4%
Under 3.5
44.9%
@ 1.43-20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.89
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Under
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.2%
@ 1.85-1.8%
No
51.8%
@ 1.85+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.84
No
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0 ✓
11.2%@ 8.96+6.3%
2-0
10.4%@ 6.50+3.7%
4-0
9.1%@ 16.00+6.4%
3-1
7.7%@ 10.26+3.5%
2-1
7.2%@ 7.24+1.1%
4-1
6.2%@ 17.87+3.8%
1-0
6.0%@ 6.52-0.7%
5-0
5.9%@ 32.11+4.5%
Mallorca goals ↓
AD Ceuta FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.4%
0.9%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
1
6.0%
4.9%
1.5%
0.3%
0.1%
2
10%
7.2%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
3
11%
7.7%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
4
9.1%
6.2%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mallorca goals (down), columns = AD Ceuta FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Mallorca is 0.24 points better than AD Ceuta FC in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Mallorca is 0.41 goals better than AD Ceuta FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Mallorca is 0.44 goals better than AD Ceuta FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mallorca
For 4.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 11.5 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AD Ceuta FC
For 3.4 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 15.8 · Total 30.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mallorca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.7
10.6
4.2
4.2
4.1
24.4
24.9
23.9
vs Stronger (16)
11.2
9.6
12.6
4.0
4.7
3.4
22.9
25.4
21.0
vs Similar (33)
9.7
9.8
9.6
4.2
4.0
4.5
25.0
24.7
25.2
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
-
10.0
5.0
-
5.0
28.0
-
28.0
% over line
55%
57%
54%
56%
52%
59%
73%
78%
69%
% under line
45%
43%
46%
44%
48%
41%
27%
22%
31%
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AD Ceuta FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (48)
8.8
9.2
8.4
4.7
4.9
4.6
27.8
29.0
26.6
vs Stronger (8)
7.4
7.8
7.0
3.5
4.0
2.7
29.1
29.8
28.3
vs Similar (38)
9.1
9.6
8.6
5.2
5.2
5.3
27.5
28.8
26.3
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
43%
55%
32%
75%
74%
76%
93%
95%
91%
% under line
57%
45%
68%
25%
26%
24%
7%
5%
9%
This opponent (Mallorca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.8
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.2
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Almeria
9.5
Leganes
9.5
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eibar
9.3
Eldense
9.3
Oviedo
9.3
Girona
9.2
Granada CF
9.2
Tenerife
9.1
Valladolid
9.0
FC Andorra
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.7
Burgos
8.4
Las Palmas
8.1
Celta de Vigo II
7.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Celta de Vigo II
6.5
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Cordoba
5.7
Burgos
5.6
Almeria
5.6
Valladolid
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Leganes
5.0
Tenerife
4.8
Sabadell
4.7
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.5
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.4
Mallorca
4.3
Oviedo
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Celta de Vigo II
32.0
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.7
Valladolid
28.3
Castellón
28.3
FC Andorra
27.8
AD Ceuta FC
27.8
Las Palmas
27.6
Sabadell
27.6
Tenerife
27.1
Granada CF
27.0
Almeria
26.6
Burgos
26.5
Leganes
26.0
Eibar
25.7
Cadiz
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.6
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
40.0%
@ 1.91-8.9%
Under 9.5
60.0%
@ 1.82+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.93
10Bet
1.91
Under
Unibet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.5%
@ 1.36+4.7%
Under 3.5
26.5%
@ 3.00-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
3.00
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
82.0%
Under 21.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mallorca or Draw✓ Hit
95.7%
Avg Implied 86.0% · @ 1.09
Edge
+9.8%
85%
10%
4%
covers Mallorca + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Mallorca or AD Ceuta FC✓ Hit
89.6%
Avg Implied 80.1% · @ 1.17
Edge
+9.5%
85%
10%
4%
covers Mallorca + AD Ceuta FC
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
Draw or AD Ceuta FC✗ Miss
14.7%
Avg Implied 33.9% · @ 2.76
Edge
-19.3%
85%
10%
4%
covers Draw + AD Ceuta FC
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.85
1xBet
2.83
10Bet
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
William Hil
2.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mallorca over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
96.1%
@ 1.09+10.3%
Under
3.9%
@ 6.56-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Under
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.85
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Mallorca over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
83.3%
@ 1.50+21.2%
Under
16.7%
@ 2.47-21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
Unibet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.55
1xBet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Mallorca over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
62.7%
@ 2.58+26.7%
Under
37.3%
@ 1.46-26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
Unibet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Under
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.45
Mallorca over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
40.5%
@ 4.98+21.9%
Under
59.5%
@ 1.14-21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
AD Ceuta FC over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
49.7%
@ 1.67-6.0%
Under
50.3%
@ 2.10+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
BetVictor
1.70
Superbet
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
AD Ceuta FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 4.38-6.1%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.18+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.75
Pinnacle
4.58
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
AD Ceuta FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 12.79-4.2%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
AD Ceuta FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 45.50-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mallorca, so a minus line means Mallorca give that many goals of a start and AD Ceuta FC receive them. At -1, Mallorca must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mallorca win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mallorca)Actual: Mallorca
Mallorca -2
48.5%
@ 3.83+25.3%
Draw -2
20.5%
@ 4.12-1.1%
AD Ceuta FC +2
30.9%
@ 1.61-24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Handicap -1 (Mallorca)Actual: Mallorca
Mallorca -1
69.1%
@ 2.11+26.9%
Draw -1
16.3%
@ 3.50-9.1%
AD Ceuta FC +1
14.7%
@ 2.74-17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.18
Superbet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
Betfair
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Handicap +1 (Mallorca)Actual: Mallorca
Mallorca +1
95.7%
@ 1.09+13.2%
Draw +1
3.1%
@ 7.71-8.6%
AD Ceuta FC -1
1.1%
@ 15.50-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Mallorca)Actual: Mallorca
Mallorca +2
98.9%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Draw +2
0.9%
@ 24.50-3.0%
AD Ceuta FC -2
0.2%
@ 66.00-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Draw
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Away
Betfair
81.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mallorca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.64
0.71
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
0.80
1.20
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.48
0.56
0.44
0.42
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AD Ceuta FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.73
0.60
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.72
0.92
0.67
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mallorca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.8%
@ 1.30+7.2%
Under 0.5
21.2%
@ 3.30-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Superbet
3.45
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.29
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.44+0.3%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.51-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.45
Under
Superbet
1.56
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.4%
@ 5.73+3.2%
Under 2.5
80.6%
@ 1.11-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Betano
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mallorca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
67.2%
@ 1.53+6.4%
Under
32.8%
@ 2.37-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Unibet
1.54
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.32
Mallorca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
30.6%
@ 3.49+4.1%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.26-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.56
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.40
Under
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Mallorca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.7%
@ 8.75+8.1%
Under
81.3%
@ 1.04-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
AD Ceuta FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.1%
@ 2.97-6.1%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.35+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.31
10Bet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.92
1xBet
2.88
Under
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
AD Ceuta FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 11.24-3.1%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.02+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
AD Ceuta FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 55.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mallorca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
1.36
0.36
0.25
1.25
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.75
0.60
0.20
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.81
1.78
0.44
0.25
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (AD Ceuta FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AD Ceuta FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.47
0.67
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.88
0.50
0.67
0.46
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mallorca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
86.8%
@ 1.18+8.0%
Under 0.5
13.2%
@ 4.38-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Under
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
57.8%
@ 1.89+8.5%
Under 1.5
42.2%
@ 1.84-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Unibet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.0%
@ 3.71-1.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
@ 1.24+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.58
Under
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mallorca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
73.3%
@ 1.36+5.1%
Under
26.7%
@ 2.91-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Under
Betano
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
2.85
1xBet
2.80
Mallorca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
42.2%
@ 2.65+7.3%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.42-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.75
Superbet
2.72
10Bet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Mallorca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.9%
@ 6.26+6.1%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.08-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
AD Ceuta FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
35.3%
@ 2.39-3.5%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.51+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.43
Superbet
2.42
10Bet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
AD Ceuta FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 8.32-2.6%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.04+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.40
Marathonbet
8.80
Superbet
8.30
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
AD Ceuta FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 23.25-2.4%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.9%
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
96.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
10Bet
1.08
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
95.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
95.7%
1.09
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.5%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
90.7%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
89.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-5.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
89.6%
1.17
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
William Hil
1.18
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
86.8%
1.18
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.16
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home win
85.3%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Dafabet
1.43
+19.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
84.9%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
81.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-8.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
81.2%
1.29
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.6%
1.11
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Betfair
1.11
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
79.7%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
BetVictor
1.02
-10.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
79.1%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
-6.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.8%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.24
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
75.0%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.77
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
+19.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
74.9%
1.35
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.5%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.3%
1.36
1xBet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.7%
1.50
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
+10.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Mallorca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adrian Fuentes33%
Antonio Raíllo33%
Alex Sala33%
Pablo Torre33%
Toni Lato0%
Manu Morlanes0%
Martin Valjent0%
Antonio Sánchez0%
Zito Luvumbo0%
Arnau Tenas0%
Antoniu Roca0%
Adrian Liso0%
Miguel Calatayud0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miguel Calatayud67%
Antonio Raíllo33%
Alex Sala33%
Antoniu Roca33%
Toni Lato0%
Manu Morlanes0%
Adrian Fuentes0%
Martin Valjent0%
Antonio Sánchez0%
Zito Luvumbo0%
Arnau Tenas0%
Pablo Torre0%
Adrian Liso0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alex Sala67%
Zito Luvumbo33%
Toni Lato0%
Manu Morlanes0%
Adrian Fuentes0%
Antonio Raíllo0%
Martin Valjent0%
Antonio Sánchez0%
Arnau Tenas0%
Pablo Torre0%
Antoniu Roca0%
Adrian Liso0%
Miguel Calatayud0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antoniu Roca33%
Toni Lato0%
Manu Morlanes0%
Adrian Fuentes0%
Antonio Raíllo0%
Martin Valjent0%
Antonio Sánchez0%
Zito Luvumbo0%
Arnau Tenas0%
Alex Sala0%
Pablo Torre0%
Adrian Liso0%
Miguel Calatayud0%
AD Ceuta FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jordi Escobar33%
Anuar0%
Jose Matos0%
Carlos Hernández0%
Yann Bodiger0%
Guillermo Vallejo0%
Kuki Zalazar0%
Alejandro Camacho0%
Cedric Teguia0%
Alejandro Meléndez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yann Bodiger33%
Cedric Teguia33%
Alejandro Meléndez33%
Anuar0%
Jose Matos0%
Carlos Hernández0%
Guillermo Vallejo0%
Kuki Zalazar0%
Alejandro Camacho0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anuar0%
Jose Matos0%
Carlos Hernández0%
Yann Bodiger0%
Guillermo Vallejo0%
Kuki Zalazar0%
Alejandro Camacho0%
Cedric Teguia0%
Jordi Escobar0%
Alejandro Meléndez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordi Escobar33%
Anuar0%
Jose Matos0%
Carlos Hernández0%
Yann Bodiger0%
Guillermo Vallejo0%
Kuki Zalazar0%
Alejandro Camacho0%
Cedric Teguia0%
Alejandro Meléndez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Mallorca's squad is €38m more valuable than AD Ceuta FC's (€48m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Mallorca's attack is €18m more valuable than AD Ceuta FC's (€23m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Mallorca's midfield is €8m more valuable than AD Ceuta FC's (€9m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Mallorca's defence is €13m more valuable than AD Ceuta FC's (€16m vs €3m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Tenerife
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Eldense
Albacete