This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.33
1.94
1.12
1.46
1.62
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
1.67
1.50
1.25
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.91
1.30
2.08
1.08
1.70
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.9%
3-0
7.1%
3-1 ✓
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
1-2
4.6%
Manchester City goals ↓
Newcastle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
4.1%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
1
9.9%
11%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
7.1%
6.6%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.5%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Manchester City goals (down), columns = Newcastle goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Coventry
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Watford
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Cardiff
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.76
Oldham
0.70
Grimsby
0.50
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Accrington
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Hull
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Manchester City is 1.21 points worse than Newcastle in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Stevenage
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Watford
2.67
Cardiff
2.50
Southampton
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Sheffield United
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Wrexham
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Reading
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Everton
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Preston
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Rotherham
1.50
Shrewsbury
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Brentford
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
Walsall
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Coventry
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Hull
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Derby
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Luton
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Barnet
0.99
Oldham
0.92
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Burton
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Manchester City is 0.36 goals worse than Newcastle in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Fulham
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Coventry
0.67
Blackpool
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Watford
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Bristol City
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Preston
1.00
Luton
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Crystal Palace
1.25
Brentford
1.25
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
QPR
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Doncaster
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Leicester
1.67
Brighton
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Salford
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Hull
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Cardiff
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
Barnet
2.54
Barnsley
2.67
Oldham
2.73
Cheltenham
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Gillingham
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Manchester City is 1.07 goals worse than Newcastle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Manchester City
For 5.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 11.7 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newcastle
For 6.0 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.2
8.6
3.7
3.6
3.7
20.0
20.2
19.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
10.8
12.0
9.5
5.2
6.0
4.5
26.8
27.5
26.0
vs Weaker (46)
8.8
9.0
8.6
3.5
3.4
3.7
19.4
19.6
19.3
% over line
43%
46%
40%
56%
54%
58%
35%
38%
32%
% under line
57%
54%
60%
44%
46%
42%
65%
62%
68%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
11.6
11.3
3.8
4.2
3.3
20.6
21.9
19.0
vs Stronger (10)
13.7
13.7
13.7
4.0
4.8
2.8
21.1
23.0
17.3
vs Similar (36)
10.8
10.9
10.8
3.9
4.2
3.4
20.5
21.6
19.2
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
11.5
12.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
20.5
21.5
19.5
% over line
62%
63%
62%
50%
61%
36%
44%
52%
33%
% under line
38%
37%
38%
50%
39%
64%
56%
48%
67%
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.4
Crawley Town
11.3
Wigan
11.2
Sheffield United
11.2
Oxford
11.1
Huddersfield
10.9
Coventry
10.8
Plymouth
10.7
Bournemouth
10.7
Hull
10.7
Bromley
10.7
Doncaster
10.6
Liverpool
10.6
Swindon
10.6
Harrogate
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Millwall
10.4
Sheffield Weds
10.4
Luton
10.4
Oldham
10.4
Preston
10.3
Norwich
10.3
QPR
10.2
Portsmouth
10.2
Chesterfield
10.2
Blackburn
10.2
Cheltenham
10.2
Grimsby
10.1
Barrow
10.1
Middlesbrough
10.1
Watford
10.1
Nottingham Forest
10.1
Port Vale
10.1
Southampton
10.1
Salford
10.0
Burton
10.0
Rotherham
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Barnsley
10.0
West Ham
10.0
Leicester
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Bristol Rvs
9.8
Fulham
9.8
Shrewsbury
9.8
West Brom
9.8
Tottenham
9.8
Manchester United
9.8
Stoke
9.7
Brentford
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.7
Exeter
9.7
Blackpool
9.7
Walsall
9.7
Derby
9.6
Bolton
9.6
Everton
9.6
Swansea
9.6
Cardiff
9.6
Wrexham
9.6
Peterboro
9.5
Fleetwood Town
9.5
Newport County
9.5
Arsenal
9.5
Brighton
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Leeds
9.4
Bristol City
9.4
Northampton
9.4
Wycombe
9.4
Aston Villa
9.4
Birmingham
9.4
AFC Wimbledon
9.3
Accrington
9.3
Reading
9.3
Notts County
9.3
Bradford
9.2
Wolves
9.2
Mansfield
9.1
Lincoln
9.1
Tranmere
9.1
Stockport
9.0
Charlton
9.0
Cambridge
9.0
Burnley
9.0
Sunderland
8.9
Colchester
8.9
Manchester City
8.9
Crystal Palace
8.8
Stevenage
8.6
Milton Keynes Dons
8.6
Gillingham
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gillingham
4.8
Bournemouth
4.7
Chelsea
4.6
Accrington
4.6
Peterboro
4.5
Bradford
4.4
Colchester
4.3
Sunderland
4.3
Watford
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.2
Brighton
4.2
Manchester United
4.2
Plymouth
4.2
Grimsby
4.2
Tottenham
4.2
Tranmere
4.2
Crewe
4.1
Notts County
4.1
Nottingham Forest
4.1
Crystal Palace
4.1
Bristol Rvs
4.0
Ipswich
4.0
Portsmouth
4.0
Stoke
4.0
Aston Villa
4.0
Salford
3.9
Chesterfield
3.9
Newcastle
3.9
Bromley
3.9
Walsall
3.9
Port Vale
3.9
Oldham
3.9
Lincoln
3.9
Manchester City
3.9
Bolton
3.8
Barnet
3.8
Wolves
3.8
Exeter
3.8
Hull
3.8
Swansea
3.8
Blackburn
3.8
Doncaster
3.7
Everton
3.7
Huddersfield
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Leyton Orient
3.7
Southampton
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Swindon
3.7
Derby
3.7
Fleetwood Town
3.7
Rotherham
3.6
West Ham
3.6
Newport County
3.6
QPR
3.6
Brentford
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Birmingham
3.6
Cambridge
3.6
Reading
3.6
Burton
3.6
Sheffield United
3.5
Fulham
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Luton
3.5
Norwich
3.5
Preston
3.5
Oxford
3.5
AFC Wimbledon
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Wycombe
3.4
Cardiff
3.4
Stockport
3.4
Mansfield
3.4
Barnsley
3.4
Stevenage
3.4
Leicester
3.4
Millwall
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Arsenal
3.3
Burnley
3.3
Barrow
3.3
Bristol City
3.3
Sheffield Weds
3.2
Wrexham
3.2
Blackpool
3.2
Leeds
3.1
Liverpool
3.1
Harrogate
3.0
Wigan
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Oldham
26.2
Crewe
25.6
Colchester
25.4
Milton Keynes Dons
25.0
Grimsby
24.8
Gillingham
24.5
Cheltenham
24.5
Wolves
24.4
Peterboro
24.4
Salford
24.4
Crawley Town
24.2
Barnet
24.2
Bradford
24.2
Bournemouth
24.0
Cambridge
23.8
Stevenage
23.8
Plymouth
23.8
Rotherham
23.6
Notts County
23.6
Bristol Rvs
23.2
Accrington
23.2
Huddersfield
23.2
Tranmere
23.2
Shrewsbury
23.2
Fleetwood Town
23.2
West Ham
23.2
Exeter
23.2
Bolton
23.1
Luton
23.1
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Lincoln
23.1
Aston Villa
23.1
Swansea
23.0
Stockport
23.0
Blackburn
23.0
Doncaster
23.0
Northampton
22.9
Southampton
22.9
Walsall
22.8
Nottingham Forest
22.8
Ipswich
22.8
Newport County
22.8
Chelsea
22.7
Wigan
22.7
Blackpool
22.7
Mansfield
22.7
Brighton
22.5
Everton
22.5
Reading
22.5
Portsmouth
22.4
Tottenham
22.3
Middlesbrough
22.3
Wycombe
22.3
Sunderland
22.2
QPR
22.2
Millwall
22.1
Birmingham
22.1
Burton
22.1
Cardiff
22.1
Bromley
22.0
Arsenal
21.9
Charlton
21.9
Chesterfield
21.9
Swindon
21.8
Sheffield United
21.7
Manchester United
21.7
Stoke
21.7
West Brom
21.6
Sheffield Weds
21.6
Leyton Orient
21.6
Leicester
21.5
Harrogate
21.5
Norwich
21.5
Derby
21.4
Hull
21.4
Oxford
21.3
Leeds
21.3
Port Vale
21.1
Barnsley
21.1
Burnley
21.0
Watford
21.0
Preston
20.8
Newcastle
20.7
Coventry
20.7
Barrow
20.5
Bristol City
20.4
Crystal Palace
20.2
Wrexham
20.1
Fulham
20.1
Manchester City
19.9
Liverpool
19.5
Brentford
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.5%
Under 9.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.6%
Under 3.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
30.1%
Under 21.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Manchester City or Draw✓ Hit
84.2%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Manchester City + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Manchester City or Newcastle✓ Hit
76.9%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Manchester City + Newcastle
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Newcastle✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied -
61%
23%
16%
covers Draw + Newcastle
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Manchester City over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.2%
Under
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
31.8%
Under
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.6%
Under
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Manchester City, so a minus line means Manchester City give that many goals of a start and Newcastle receive them. At -1, Manchester City must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Manchester City win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Manchester City)Actual: Draw
Manchester City -2
18.7%
Draw -2
19.0%
Newcastle +2
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Manchester City)Actual: Manchester City
Manchester City -1
37.7%
Draw -1
23.3%
Newcastle +1
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Manchester City)Actual: Manchester City
Manchester City +1
84.2%
Draw +1
10.3%
Newcastle -1
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Manchester City)Actual: Manchester City
Manchester City +2
94.5%
Draw +2
4.1%
Newcastle -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Manchester City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.33
1.60
0.20
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.22
0.33
1.62
0.23
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.76
0.24
0.92
0.69
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.43
0.85
0.31
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Manchester City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
1.33
0.47
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.15
0.67
1.46
0.46
0.86
0.86
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
1.18
0.88
0.54
0.92
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.00
0.87
1.23
0.77
0.70
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Manchester City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Manchester City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Erling Haaland55%
Antoine Semenyo42%
Rayan Cherki20%
Max Alleyne17%
Jérémy Doku15%
Phil Foden14%
Omar Marmoush14%
Nico O'Reilly13%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Savinho11%
Marc Guéhi10%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Rodri6%
Rúben Dias6%
Bernardo Silva6%
Nico González5%
Rico Lewis5%
Matheus Nunes2%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bernardo Silva28%
Gianluigi Donnarumma23%
Nico González20%
Rodri19%
Abdukodir Khusanov17%
Nico O'Reilly15%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Rúben Dias12%
Savinho11%
Phil Foden10%
Marc Guéhi10%
Omar Marmoush9%
Joško Gvardiol8%
Oscar Bobb7%
Tijjani Reijnders4%
Erling Haaland4%
Rayan Cherki4%
Antoine Semenyo4%
Nathan Aké3%
John Stones0%
Jérémy Doku0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Divine Mukasa33%
Rayan Cherki24%
Jérémy Doku19%
Joško Gvardiol16%
Erling Haaland16%
Rayan Aït-Nouri15%
Matheus Nunes15%
Rico Lewis14%
Tijjani Reijnders13%
Phil Foden12%
Antoine Semenyo12%
Nico O'Reilly12%
Mateo Kovačić11%
Bernardo Silva9%
Omar Marmoush9%
Oscar Bobb7%
Savinho6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rodri0%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Nathan Aké0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Erling Haaland53%
Antoine Semenyo19%
Omar Marmoush17%
Tijjani Reijnders15%
Rayan Cherki12%
Phil Foden10%
Savinho8%
Rodri6%
Marc Guéhi5%
Rico Lewis5%
Jérémy Doku4%
Joško Gvardiol4%
Nico O'Reilly4%
Rúben Dias0%
John Stones0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Gianluigi Donnarumma0%
Mateo Kovačić0%
Nathan Aké0%
Rayan Aït-Nouri0%
Matheus Nunes0%
Nico González0%
James Trafford0%
Oscar Bobb0%
Max Alleyne0%
Abdukodir Khusanov0%
Divine Mukasa0%
Newcastle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Gordon29%
Bruno Guimarães22%
Harvey Barnes21%
William Osula21%
Nick Woltemade20%
Joelinton12%
Yoane Wissa11%
Jacob Murphy9%
Lewis Miley9%
Malick Thiaw8%
Sven Botman5%
Fabian Schär5%
Jacob Ramsey5%
Dan Burn5%
Sandro Tonali4%
Joe Willock3%
Lewis Hall2%
Anthony Elanga2%
Kieran Trippier0%
Emil Krafth0%
Nick Pope0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Alex Murphy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joelinton38%
Dan Burn28%
Bruno Guimarães22%
Malick Thiaw17%
Kieran Trippier17%
Joe Willock16%
Yoane Wissa15%
Fabian Schär14%
Aaron Ramsdale14%
Sandro Tonali13%
Jacob Ramsey12%
Anthony Gordon9%
Lewis Hall9%
Nick Pope6%
Sven Botman5%
Jacob Murphy4%
Valentino Livramento4%
Harvey Barnes4%
Anthony Elanga2%
Nick Woltemade2%
Emil Krafth0%
William Osula0%
Alex Murphy0%
Lewis Miley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bruno Guimarães15%
Lewis Miley12%
Dan Burn12%
Sandro Tonali12%
Kieran Trippier11%
Jacob Murphy11%
Anthony Gordon11%
Harvey Barnes11%
Nick Woltemade8%
Joe Willock8%
Jacob Ramsey7%
Joelinton5%
Lewis Hall4%
Valentino Livramento4%
Yoane Wissa4%
William Osula3%
Nick Pope3%
Sven Botman3%
Anthony Elanga2%
Fabian Schär0%
Emil Krafth0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Alex Murphy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Gordon24%
Bruno Guimarães15%
Harvey Barnes14%
Jacob Murphy13%
Fabian Schär10%
Joelinton7%
Nick Woltemade6%
William Osula6%
Sandro Tonali4%
Yoane Wissa4%
Sven Botman3%
Joe Willock3%
Kieran Trippier0%
Emil Krafth0%
Nick Pope0%
Dan Burn0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Alex Murphy0%
Lewis Miley0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
Manchester City's squad is €758m more valuable than Newcastle's (€1326m vs €568m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
Manchester City's attack is €401m more valuable than Newcastle's (€635m vs €234m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Manchester City's midfield is €36m more valuable than Newcastle's (€160m vs €124m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
Manchester City's defence is €321m more valuable than Newcastle's (€531m vs €210m).
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Brighton
Brentford
Chelsea
Fulham
Everton
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
West Ham
Burnley
Wolves