Manchester United are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 63 % chance of a home win. The prediction hinges on United’s strong home form, averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Ipswich, on the road, averages 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded. The expected total is 3.4 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 22 %. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for United, carrying a 9.7 % probability. The model also projects a 21 % draw and a 16 % chance of an Ipswich win. Suggested picks include an away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2 %, away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8 % with a 6 % edge, under 7.5 at 97.7 % (1 % edge), away under 3.5 goals at 97.4 %, home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5 % (5 % edge), under 6.5 at 94.2 %, home +2 handicap at 93.9 %, and away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.8 % (2 % edge). Manchester United’s recent form, coming off a defeat, contrasts with Ipswich’s two-game winning run, reinforcing the home advantage.
Results analysis
Manchester United’s recent form, coming off a 5-2 win, set the tone for a decisive home victory, while Ipswich, after a 2-5 defeat, struggled to find footing. The model’s favourite, a home win with a 63% probability, proved correct as United triumphed 5-2. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 fell short, yet the final result still aligned with the predicted home advantage. Every suggested selection was addressed: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3%; Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.6%; Under 7.5 hit at 97.7%; Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.4%; Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.9%; Under 6.5 missed at 94.3%; Home +2 handicap hit at 93.7%; and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 92.7%. The model’s predictions largely materialised, underscoring its reliability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Manchester United win✓ Hit
62.9%
Avg Implied 69.8% · @ 1.36
Edge
-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
Dafabet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Draw✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied 18.3% · @ 5.21
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
5.55
Dafabet
5.40
1xBet
5.38
Pinnacle
5.31
Marathonbet
5.30
Ipswich win✗ Miss
16.3%
Avg Implied 11.9% · @ 8.03
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
8.50
BetVictor
8.50
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Pinnacle
8.38
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Manchester United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.27
1.93
1.33
1.60
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.82
1.32
2.09
1.45
1.55
1.18
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
1.29
1.33
1.33
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ipswich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.07
2.07
0.73
1.47
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.54
1.80
1.20
1.38
1.75
vs Weaker (17)
1.94
0.71
2.20
0.50
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.1%
@ 1.14+3.5%
Under 1.5
13.9%
@ 5.39-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Under
BetVictor
5.75
Superbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.9%
@ 1.51+3.3%
Under 2.5
34.1%
@ 2.53-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.60
Unibet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Under
Superbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
Betfair
2.60
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.0%
@ 2.29+2.2%
Under 3.5
56.0%
@ 1.64-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.36
SBO
2.35
Unibet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.0%
@ 1.73+7.1%
No
39.0%
@ 2.03-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.75
1xBet
1.74
No
Betfair
2.15
Superbet
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.02
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.7%@ 8.10+3.9%
1-1
9.4%@ 9.49+4.4%
2-0
8.8%@ 7.43+2.5%
3-1
7.4%@ 10.17+2.8%
1-0
6.8%@ 8.52+1.3%
3-0
6.7%@ 9.38+1.7%
2-2
5.4%@ 15.95+2.4%
1-2
4.7%@ 20.31+2.4%
Manchester United goals ↓
Ipswich goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
2.9%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
1
6.8%
9.4%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
2
8.8%
9.7%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
6.7%
7.4%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.8%
4.2%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Manchester United goals (down), columns = Ipswich goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Manchester United is 0.68 points better than Ipswich in terms of average points per game (1.87 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Manchester United is 0.62 goals better than Ipswich in terms of goals scored per game (1.82 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Manchester United is 0.27 goals better than Ipswich in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Manchester United
For 6.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ipswich
For 5.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.7 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.7
4.1
4.5
3.7
21.7
21.5
21.8
vs Stronger (2)
6.5
7.0
6.0
2.5
5.0
0.0
18.5
21.0
16.0
vs Similar (37)
9.5
9.3
9.8
4.4
4.7
4.0
22.1
21.7
22.5
vs Weaker (11)
10.2
10.2
10.2
3.6
3.8
3.5
20.7
20.8
20.7
% over line
50%
50%
50%
62%
75%
50%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
38%
25%
50%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ipswich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.8
4.2
4.0
4.5
23.8
23.9
23.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
10.4
10.1
10.8
4.5
4.5
4.4
24.7
24.9
24.4
vs Weaker (31)
9.8
10.3
9.2
4.1
3.7
4.5
23.3
23.3
23.3
% over line
42%
42%
42%
60%
50%
71%
68%
65%
71%
% under line
58%
58%
58%
40%
50%
29%
32%
35%
29%
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Brighton
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Aston Villa
9.4
Everton
9.3
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Hull
4.2
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Brentford
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.8
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.8
Sunderland
22.7
Brighton
22.3
Leeds
22.2
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Manchester United
21.7
Everton
21.6
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
19.9
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.3%
@ 1.85+1.8%
Under 9.5
47.7%
@ 1.89-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.88
Unibet
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.3%
@ 2.08+18.3%
Under 3.5
36.7%
@ 1.70-18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
55.3%
@ 1.96+8.0%
Under 21.5
44.7%
@ 1.76-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.59
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Manchester United or Draw✓ Hit
83.7%
Avg Implied 87.1% · @ 1.09
Edge
-3.5%
63%
21%
16%
covers Manchester United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
Manchester United or Ipswich✓ Hit
79.3%
Avg Implied 82.0% · @ 1.15
Edge
-2.8%
63%
21%
16%
covers Manchester United + Ipswich
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Draw or Ipswich✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied 30.8% · @ 3.07
Edge
+6.2%
63%
21%
16%
covers Draw + Ipswich
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.22
Superbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Betfair
3.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Manchester United over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.8%
@ 1.05+1.2%
Under
10.2%
@ 8.23-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.20
1xBet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Manchester United over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
66.5%
@ 1.37-1.8%
Under
33.5%
@ 2.95+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
3.08
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.92
Manchester United over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
40.0%
@ 2.17-3.2%
Under
60.0%
@ 1.65+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Under
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Manchester United over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
19.7%
@ 4.02-3.5%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.22+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.29
BetVictor
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Unibet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Ipswich over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.0%
@ 1.61+9.1%
Under
33.0%
@ 2.21-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Ipswich over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.4%
@ 4.02+7.1%
Under
69.6%
@ 1.22-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.19
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Ipswich over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 11.49+1.9%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.03-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
13.25
1xBet
13.20
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Superbet
11.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Ipswich over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 30.00-0.6%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
36.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Manchester United, so a minus line means Manchester United give that many goals of a start and Ipswich receive them. At -1, Manchester United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Manchester United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Manchester United)Actual: Manchester United
Manchester United -2
22.3%
@ 3.29-5.4%
Draw -2
19.0%
@ 4.22-2.6%
Ipswich +2
58.7%
@ 1.80+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
Unibet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Unibet
3.95
Away
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Betfair
1.73
Handicap -1 (Manchester United)Actual: Manchester United
Manchester United -1
41.3%
@ 1.91-6.2%
Draw -1
21.6%
@ 3.83-2.0%
Ipswich +1
37.1%
@ 3.15+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.99
Unibet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Bet365
1.83
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Away
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
Superbet
3.20
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.00
Handicap +1 (Manchester United)Actual: Manchester United
Manchester United +1
83.7%
@ 1.08+0.3%
Draw +1
10.1%
@ 8.41-0.6%
Ipswich -1
6.3%
@ 15.03+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
Unibet
15.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Handicap +2 (Manchester United)Actual: Manchester United
Manchester United +2
93.7%
@ 1.01-0.5%
Draw +2
4.5%
@ 23.00+0.3%
Ipswich -2
1.8%
@ 61.00+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
23.00
Away
Betfair
71.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Manchester United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.73
0.47
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.41
0.82
0.45
0.64
0.36
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.86
0.67
0.67
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ipswich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
1.07
0.33
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.77
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.41
1.30
0.20
0.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.4%
@ 1.25+0.1%
Under 0.5
24.6%
@ 3.81-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
William Hil
3.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.9%
@ 2.21-3.8%
Under 1.5
61.1%
@ 1.65+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.33
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.28
1xBet
2.28
Betano
2.27
Under
Superbet
1.72
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
William Hil
1.65
Betano
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.5%
@ 4.88-3.7%
Under 2.5
84.5%
@ 1.16+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.15
Unibet
4.90
Betano
4.80
Under
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
61.3%
@ 1.44-3.4%
Under
38.7%
@ 2.64+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Unibet
1.43
Superbet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.77
Superbet
2.70
Unibet
2.60
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.55
Manchester United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.3%
@ 3.09-4.7%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.32+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.20
Betano
3.20
Unibet
3.15
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Under
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Manchester United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 7.62-7.0%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.05+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Unibet
8.00
Betano
7.30
Superbet
7.00
Under
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Ipswich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
33.9%
@ 2.85+1.2%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.39-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.07
Unibet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.84
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
Ipswich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 10.08-2.0%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Ipswich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 50.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Manchester United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.77
1.20
0.87
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.91
1.27
1.00
0.91
0.82
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.43
0.67
0.67
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ipswich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ipswich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.77
1.20
0.60
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (17)
1.00
0.29
0.90
0.30
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.8%
@ 1.14+1.5%
Under 0.5
16.2%
@ 5.31-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Under
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Betano
5.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.73-3.1%
Under 1.5
48.5%
@ 2.07+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Under
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Unibet
2.04
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
23.4%
@ 3.26-5.5%
Under 2.5
76.6%
@ 1.32+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.25
1xBet
3.24
Under
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
71.4%
@ 1.28-1.1%
Under
28.6%
@ 3.38+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Under
Betano
3.40
1xBet
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Manchester United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
36.4%
@ 2.31-3.7%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.55+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.34
Superbet
2.32
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Manchester United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
10.7%
@ 5.07-7.6%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.14+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.15
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Ipswich over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.6%
@ 2.30+3.2%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.56-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.34
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Under
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.53
Ipswich over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 7.90-3.4%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.05+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Ipswich over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 20.75-3.2%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.9%
1.05
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
+1.3%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.3%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-
-
+7.6%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
87.2%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
+0.0%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
86.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.5%
1.16
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
83.7%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.09
-3.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
83.7%
1.08
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.9%
1.46
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Unibet
1.45
-
+17.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
80.3%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
79.3%
1.15
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.4%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.7%
1.32
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
74.6%
1.25
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
-1.4%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.7%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
-
-
-
-8.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
71.5%
1.61
1xBet
1.61
-
-
-
-
+14.7%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
71.4%
1.28
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.4%
1.32
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
+1.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Manchester United · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Šeško34%
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha29%
Casemiro26%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Mason Mount12%
Harry Maguire8%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Matthijs de Ligt7%
Amad Diallo6%
Kobbie Mainoo3%
Diogo Dalot3%
Luke Shaw3%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Casemiro29%
Shea Lacey25%
Luke Shaw24%
Patrick Dorgu18%
Harry Maguire16%
Joshua Zirkzee15%
Noussair Mazraoui15%
Diogo Dalot14%
Bruno Fernandes14%
Bryan Mbeumo12%
Matheus Cunha11%
Ayden Heaven11%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Mason Mount8%
Benjamin Šeško6%
Amad Diallo6%
Manuel Ugarte4%
Leny Yoro3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Senne Lammens0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bruno Fernandes51%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Amad Diallo9%
Bryan Mbeumo9%
Diogo Dalot8%
Harry Maguire8%
Casemiro6%
Matheus Cunha6%
Ayden Heaven6%
Mason Mount4%
Joshua Zirkzee4%
Benjamin Šeško3%
Luke Shaw3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Shea Lacey0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha31%
Benjamin Šeško25%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Amad Diallo15%
Casemiro14%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Patrick Dorgu7%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Diogo Dalot0%
Luke Shaw0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Harry Maguire0%
Mason Mount0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Kobbie Mainoo0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
Ipswich
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chuba Akpom33%
Leif Davis33%
Marcelino Núñez33%
Dara O'Shea0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Kasey McAteer0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chuba Akpom0%
Dara O'Shea0%
Leif Davis0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Marcelino Núñez0%
Kasey McAteer0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Chuba Akpom33%
Dara O'Shea0%
Leif Davis0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Marcelino Núñez0%
Kasey McAteer0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kasey McAteer33%
Chuba Akpom0%
Dara O'Shea0%
Leif Davis0%
Daizen Maeda0%
Marcelino Núñez0%
Abdoul Ouattara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Manchester United's squad is €649m more valuable than Ipswich's (€929m vs €280m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Manchester United's attack is €302m more valuable than Ipswich's (€432m vs €130m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Manchester United's midfield is €171m more valuable than Ipswich's (€236m vs €66m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Manchester United's defence is €177m more valuable than Ipswich's (€261m vs €85m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Sunderland
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham