Middlesbrough are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of a home victory, 27% for a draw and 24% for West Brom to come away with the win. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most probable total of two goals occurring 26% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is a 1-1 draw, with a 13.1% probability. Middlesbrough’s home form shows they score an average of 0.75 goals and concede 0.5 against weaker opposition, while West Brom’s away record against this tier is not provided but their recent three-game winning streak suggests they can keep the pressure on. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.3% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (97.5% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.3% with a 7% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1% with a 7% edge).
Results analysis
Middlesbrough’s 3-1 victory over West Brom extended their two-game winning run, confirming the model’s home-win pick with a 50% probability. The final score matched the predicted 3-1 outcome, and the model’s favourite was right. The suggested selections performed well: Under 7.5 (99.8%) hit, Under 6.5 (99.3%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%) hit, Under 5.5 (97.6%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1%) hit, while Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.7%) missed. The model’s predictions largely came through, reinforcing its accuracy for this match.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Middlesbrough win✓ Hit
50.0%
Avg Implied 53.8% · @ 1.74
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.74
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.90
Bet365
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Betano
3.80
Dafabet
3.80
West Brom win✗ Miss
20.1%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.46
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.67
BetVictor
4.60
Betfair
4.60
Betano
4.55
Marathonbet
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Middlesbrough
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.03
1.50
0.57
1.69
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.18
1.80
0.60
1.58
1.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.62
0.75
0.50
2.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
West Brom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.30
1.29
1.29
1.12
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.11
1.30
1.38
1.38
0.86
1.21
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.25-9.7%
Under 1.5
34.4%
@ 3.78+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
BetVictor
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.99
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.5%
@ 1.82-14.7%
Under 2.5
62.5%
@ 1.98+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.86
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.9%
@ 2.99-13.5%
Under 3.5
82.1%
@ 1.37+13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Betano
3.05
Unibet
3.05
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.37
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.5%
@ 1.74-11.0%
No
57.5%
@ 2.00+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
No
Betfair
2.05
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.4%@ 6.86+7.8%
1-1
13.6%@ 6.81+7.0%
0-0
12.4%@ 10.88+8.3%
2-0
10.9%@ 7.94+5.2%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.63+2.8%
0-1
7.6%@ 12.08+3.9%
3-0
5.1%@ 13.14+1.7%
1-2
4.9%@ 13.14+1.5%
Middlesbrough goals ↓
West Brom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.6%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
4.9%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
8.7%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.1%
4.0%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.4%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Middlesbrough goals (down), columns = West Brom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Middlesbrough is 0.52 points better than West Brom in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Middlesbrough is 0.45 goals better than West Brom in terms of goals scored per game (1.49 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Middlesbrough is 0.26 goals better than West Brom in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Middlesbrough is 7.8 percentage points better than West Brom in terms of average possession (59% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Middlesbrough
For 6.6 · Against 3.4 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
West Brom
For 3.2 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 12.3 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Middlesbrough
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
12.0
9.7
3.6
3.0
4.1
21.5
21.5
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
10.7
12.2
9.3
3.7
3.1
4.3
21.7
21.2
22.2
vs Weaker (13)
11.0
11.3
10.7
3.2
2.8
3.6
21.0
22.3
19.9
% over line
58%
75%
42%
54%
46%
62%
46%
42%
50%
% under line
42%
25%
58%
46%
54%
38%
54%
58%
50%
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
West Brom
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.2
9.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
20.9
21.3
20.6
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
8.0
8.5
4.3
5.0
4.0
21.0
18.0
22.5
vs Similar (46)
9.4
9.2
9.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
21.0
21.4
20.7
vs Weaker (1)
3.0
-
3.0
2.0
-
2.0
16.0
-
16.0
% over line
42%
48%
37%
42%
39%
44%
42%
43%
41%
% under line
58%
52%
63%
58%
61%
56%
58%
57%
59%
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.2%
@ 1.66+5.3%
Under 9.5
38.8%
@ 2.10-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Under
Unibet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.16
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.5%
@ 1.88-3.7%
Under 3.5
54.5%
@ 1.82+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.87
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
46.5%
@ 1.88-0.9%
Under 21.5
53.5%
@ 1.69+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Under
Superbet
1.69
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Middlesbrough or Draw✓ Hit
79.9%
Avg Implied 78.6% · @ 1.19
Edge
+1.3%
50%
30%
20%
covers Middlesbrough + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Middlesbrough or West Brom✓ Hit
70.0%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
-5.6%
50%
30%
20%
covers Middlesbrough + West Brom
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw or West Brom✗ Miss
50.0%
Avg Implied 45.7% · @ 2.04
Edge
+4.3%
50%
30%
20%
covers Draw + West Brom
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.12
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Unibet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.3%
@ 1.14-6.0%
Under
24.7%
@ 4.96+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
40.7%
@ 1.77-11.9%
Under
59.3%
@ 1.97+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
16.6%
@ 3.44-10.4%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.27+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Under
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Middlesbrough over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 7.57-6.9%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.06+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
West Brom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
54.8%
@ 1.48-8.1%
Under
45.2%
@ 2.51+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.52
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
Betfair
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.50
West Brom over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
18.9%
@ 3.36-8.8%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.29+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.55
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Unibet
3.35
Under
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
West Brom over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 8.99-5.7%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.04+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
West Brom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 21.67-3.6%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Middlesbrough, so a minus line means Middlesbrough give that many goals of a start and West Brom receive them. At -1, Middlesbrough must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Middlesbrough win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Middlesbrough)Actual: Draw
Middlesbrough -2
9.6%
@ 5.94-5.4%
Draw -2
15.6%
@ 4.89-2.7%
West Brom +2
74.8%
@ 1.34+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Superbet
5.70
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Away
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Handicap -1 (Middlesbrough)Actual: Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough -1
25.2%
@ 2.94-5.2%
Draw -1
24.8%
@ 3.53-0.5%
West Brom +1
50.0%
@ 2.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Superbet
2.92
Unibet
2.90
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Away
Marathonbet
2.06
Unibet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Handicap +1 (Middlesbrough)Actual: Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough +1
79.9%
@ 1.19+5.3%
Draw +1
13.6%
@ 5.66-2.1%
West Brom -1
6.5%
@ 9.21-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.75
Superbet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Superbet
8.60
Handicap +2 (Middlesbrough)Actual: Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough +2
93.5%
@ 1.04+3.3%
Draw +2
5.0%
@ 14.00-1.7%
West Brom -2
1.5%
@ 30.00-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Middlesbrough
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.64
0.14
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.41
0.80
0.10
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.12
0.25
0.25
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
West Brom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.64
0.57
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.63
0.69
0.62
0.29
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
65.2%
@ 1.34-4.2%
Under 0.5
34.8%
@ 3.05+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.9%
@ 2.62-5.6%
Under 1.5
70.1%
@ 1.44+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.75
Pinnacle
2.74
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.0%
@ 6.50-5.3%
Under 2.5
91.0%
@ 1.08+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
6.50
Unibet
6.40
Under
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.9%
@ 1.72-6.1%
Under
52.1%
@ 2.03+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Betano
2.00
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 4.53-7.0%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.16+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 11.62-5.2%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
West Brom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.3%
@ 2.56-2.1%
Under
65.7%
@ 1.46+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.53
Under
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
West Brom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 9.07-3.7%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.03+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
9.40
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.70
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
West Brom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 36.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
36.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Middlesbrough
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.86
0.43
0.81
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.77
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (West Brom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
West Brom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.64
0.71
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.67
0.69
0.77
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Middlesbrough) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.6%
@ 1.21-2.5%
Under 0.5
25.4%
@ 4.06+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
4.10
Unibet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.1%
@ 2.00-8.6%
Under 1.5
61.9%
@ 1.75+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Under
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 4.15-7.7%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.20+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Unibet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Middlesbrough over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.7%
@ 1.49-7.5%
Under
45.3%
@ 2.45+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Superbet
2.40
Middlesbrough over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
18.6%
@ 3.29-9.5%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.28+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Middlesbrough over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
4.3%
@ 8.30-6.9%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.04+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
8.60
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
West Brom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
42.3%
@ 2.10-1.9%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.66+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Under
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Marathonbet
1.63
West Brom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 6.60-4.0%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.08+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.50
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
West Brom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 17.00-3.7%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+6.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.04
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.9%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.08
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.3%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+7.7%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+10.4%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.1%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.37
+13.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.28
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
81.1%
1.29
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.9%
1.19
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
79.9%
1.19
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.13
-6.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
74.8%
1.34
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.6%
1.21
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.2%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.35
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.9%
1.38
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.1%
1.44
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.44
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.0%
1.24
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-5.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Middlesbrough
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Will Lankshear67%
Jeremy Sarmiento40%
Alfie Jones25%
Aidan Morris25%
Kyle Joseph17%
Neto Borges0%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Luke Ayling0%
Morgan Whittaker0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Sebastian Berhalter0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Will Lankshear50%
Alfie Jones25%
Myles Peart-Harris25%
Neto Borges17%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Luke Ayling0%
Morgan Whittaker0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Sebastian Berhalter0%
Aidan Morris0%
Jeremy Sarmiento0%
Kyle Joseph0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Berhalter33%
Riley McGree25%
Morgan Whittaker20%
Jeremy Sarmiento20%
Luke Ayling17%
Neto Borges0%
Callum Brittain0%
Alfie Jones0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Aidan Morris0%
Kyle Joseph0%
Radek Vitek0%
Leo Castledine0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
Will Lankshear0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Morgan Whittaker40%
Will Lankshear33%
Leo Castledine20%
Sebastian Berhalter17%
Kyle Joseph17%
Neto Borges0%
Riley McGree0%
Callum Brittain0%
Alfie Jones0%
Luke Ayling0%
Adilson Malanda0%
Myles Peart-Harris0%
Aidan Morris0%
Jeremy Sarmiento0%
Radek Vitek0%
Maximilian Arfsten0%
West Brom
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jimmy Morgan50%
Harry Whitwell40%
Isaac Price33%
Aune Selland Heggebø25%
Callum Styles17%
Felix Horn Myhre17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Nolan Galves0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ousmane Diakité50%
Nathaniel Phillips20%
Rabby Nzingoula20%
George Campbell17%
Barney Stewart17%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
Callum Styles0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Isaac Price0%
Jimmy Morgan0%
Nolan Galves0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jimmy Morgan33%
Max O'Leary20%
Harry Whitwell20%
Callum Styles17%
Isaac Price17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Nolan Galves0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isaac Price33%
Jimmy Morgan17%
Ousmane Diakité0%
Chris Mepham0%
Jayson Molumby0%
Max O'Leary0%
Callum Styles0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
George Campbell0%
Nathaniel Phillips0%
Aune Selland Heggebø0%
Nolan Galves0%
Harry Whitwell0%
Rabby Nzingoula0%
Barney Stewart0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Middlesbrough's squad is €90m more valuable than West Brom's (€142m vs €52m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Middlesbrough's attack is €59m more valuable than West Brom's (€74m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Middlesbrough's midfield is €4m more valuable than West Brom's (€27m vs €22m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Middlesbrough's defence is €26m more valuable than West Brom's (€41m vs €15m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Bristol City
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston