Millwall are the clear favourites, with a 47% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of a Wrexham win. The model predicts a 2-goal match, most likely ending 1-1 with a 13.4% probability. Millwall’s home form shows they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Wrexham, on the road, average 1.14 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The match is expected to produce 2.6 goals on average. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2% with a 7% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (97.2% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1% with a 5% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.0% with a 5% edge). Both sides have recently come off defeats, with Millwall losing 1-5 to Southampton and Wrexham losing 1-2 to Birmingham.
Results analysis
The upset was stark: Wrexham overturned Millwall’s recent run of two defeats to win 3-0, a result that shocked the pre-match favourite. The model had tipped a home win with a 48% probability, but that call was wrong. The match delivered on every one of the model’s suggested picks, all of which hit: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%), and Home under 3.5 goals (95.8%). The final score of 0-3 confirmed the away side’s dominance, leaving the model’s home-win prediction incorrect.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Millwall win✗ Miss
48.5%
Avg Implied 42.1% · @ 2.24
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.35
Betano
2.32
Dafabet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.32
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.50
Pinnacle
3.44
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.35
Wrexham win✓ Hit
24.1%
Avg Implied 29.6% · @ 3.19
Edge
-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Superbet
3.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Millwall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.00
1.75
0.92
1.39
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.55
1.03
1.75
0.92
1.41
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.50
1.69
1.69
1.36
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.42
1.95
1.58
1.92
1.14
2.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.60
2.00
0.67
1.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
@ 1.29+2.7%
Under 1.5
24.6%
@ 3.42-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.64
Superbet
3.55
Betano
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.4%
@ 1.93+0.2%
Under 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.86-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
SBO
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.93
Under
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
@ 3.29-1.0%
Under 3.5
72.5%
@ 1.31+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.46
Unibet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.31
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.2%
@ 1.72-0.9%
No
46.8%
@ 2.03+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
No
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 5.99+5.6%
1-0
10.1%@ 7.41+4.0%
2-1
9.5%@ 8.36+4.1%
2-0
8.9%@ 10.24+4.6%
0-0
8.3%@ 9.23+3.4%
1-2
6.3%@ 10.43+2.0%
0-1
6.3%@ 9.35+1.5%
3-1
5.0%@ 16.38+2.3%
Millwall goals ↓
Wrexham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.3%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.5%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.7%
5.0%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.9%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Millwall goals (down), columns = Wrexham goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Millwall is 0.21 points better than Wrexham in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.54).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Millwall is 0.17 goals worse than Wrexham in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Millwall is 0.35 goals better than Wrexham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Millwall is 0.5 percentage points worse than Wrexham in terms of average possession (48% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Millwall
For 6.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 8.0 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wrexham
For 4.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 9.4 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Millwall
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.2
10.7
3.4
3.1
3.7
20.4
19.7
21.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
11.1
11.2
11.0
3.4
3.1
3.8
20.3
19.7
20.8
vs Weaker (1)
4.0
-
4.0
2.0
-
2.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
56%
61%
52%
44%
30%
56%
30%
22%
37%
% under line
44%
39%
48%
56%
70%
44%
70%
78%
63%
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.9
10.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
19.6
19.6
19.7
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
13.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
17.0
17.0
-
vs Similar (30)
9.2
9.5
8.8
3.7
3.6
3.7
19.6
19.4
19.8
vs Weaker (19)
11.5
10.2
12.6
3.1
2.9
3.3
19.8
20.1
19.5
% over line
52%
44%
61%
48%
41%
57%
32%
30%
35%
% under line
48%
56%
39%
52%
59%
43%
68%
70%
65%
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
QPR
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Birmingham
21.7
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.4
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
65.3%
@ 1.44+1.1%
Under 9.5
34.7%
@ 2.58-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Unibet
1.43
Under
Betano
2.80
Betfair
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.50
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.7%
@ 2.14+2.3%
Under 3.5
54.3%
@ 1.64-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Unibet
2.30
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.15
1xBet
1.91
Under
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.52
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
41.2%
@ 2.31+3.3%
Under 21.5
58.8%
@ 1.41-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.31
Under
1xBet
1.41
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Millwall or Draw✗ Miss
73.0%
Avg Implied 70.3% · @ 1.33
Edge
+2.7%
48%
27%
24%
covers Millwall + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Millwall or Wrexham✓ Hit
69.2%
Avg Implied 72.0% · @ 1.30
Edge
-2.8%
48%
27%
24%
covers Millwall + Wrexham
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Draw or Wrexham✓ Hit
57.8%
Avg Implied 57.7% · @ 1.62
Edge
+0.1%
48%
27%
24%
covers Draw + Wrexham
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.67
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.64
SBO
1.63
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Millwall over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.4%
@ 1.23-3.3%
Under
27.6%
@ 3.81+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.12
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Millwall over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 2.18-6.1%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.64+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Millwall over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.0%
@ 4.82-5.3%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.15+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
BetVictor
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
Millwall over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 10.46-4.8%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Unibet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Wrexham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.4%
@ 1.35-6.1%
Under
37.6%
@ 2.95+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.16
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.95
Wrexham over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.7%
@ 2.76-8.1%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.41+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.87
Unibet
2.80
1xBet
2.78
Marathonbet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Wrexham over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
7.7%
@ 6.78-6.1%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.08+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Wrexham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 16.67-4.0%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Millwall, so a minus line means Millwall give that many goals of a start and Wrexham receive them. At -1, Millwall must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Millwall win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Millwall)Actual: Wrexham
Millwall -2
7.0%
@ 9.58-2.4%
Draw -2
12.8%
@ 6.27-1.5%
Wrexham +2
80.2%
@ 1.18+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.55
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.00
Away
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Handicap -1 (Millwall)Actual: Wrexham
Millwall -1
19.8%
@ 4.22-1.4%
Draw -1
22.4%
@ 3.81-1.1%
Wrexham +1
57.8%
@ 1.61+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Away
Unibet
1.65
Superbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Handicap +1 (Millwall)Actual: Wrexham
Millwall +1
73.0%
@ 1.33+5.7%
Draw +1
16.8%
@ 4.67-2.4%
Wrexham -1
10.3%
@ 6.63-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Handicap +2 (Millwall)Actual: Wrexham
Millwall +2
89.7%
@ 1.07+5.0%
Draw +2
7.4%
@ 9.25-2.4%
Wrexham -2
2.8%
@ 16.75-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
Unibet
15.00
10Bet
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Millwall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.33
0.83
0.08
0.39
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.34
0.83
0.08
0.35
0.53
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.06
0.69
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.79
0.92
0.83
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.20
1.67
0.00
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.5%
@ 1.38-1.7%
Under 0.5
34.5%
@ 2.84+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Superbet
2.90
10Bet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.6%
@ 2.79-3.8%
Under 1.5
70.4%
@ 1.40+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.81
Under
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.1%
@ 7.12-3.0%
Under 2.5
89.9%
@ 1.07+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Millwall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
51.3%
@ 1.95+3.6%
Under
48.7%
@ 1.78-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.93
Unibet
1.93
Under
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Unibet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Millwall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.7%
@ 5.79-1.2%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.10+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
6.05
Unibet
5.75
Superbet
5.60
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Millwall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 14.75-3.4%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Wrexham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
32.7%
@ 2.27-8.3%
Under
67.3%
@ 1.58+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.34
Unibet
2.33
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Superbet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Wrexham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 7.52-2.7%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.06+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Marathonbet
8.10
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Wrexham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 27.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Millwall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
0.92
0.83
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.00
0.69
0.92
0.83
1.06
0.59
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wrexham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.62
1.00
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
1.16
0.67
1.08
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.67
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.9%
@ 1.23+2.4%
Under 0.5
22.1%
@ 3.79-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.6%
@ 2.11-2.7%
Under 1.5
58.4%
@ 1.68+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.8%
@ 4.51-4.8%
Under 2.5
84.2%
@ 1.17+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.65
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Millwall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
56.7%
@ 1.66+0.8%
Under
43.3%
@ 2.10-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Millwall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.1%
@ 4.25-2.7%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.19+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
1xBet
4.25
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Millwall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 10.62-3.9%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Wrexham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
38.0%
@ 1.88-11.3%
Under
62.0%
@ 1.82+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Wrexham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.7%
@ 5.47-5.2%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.11+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Wrexham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 14.38-5.0%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
+6.1%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
92.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
+5.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.3%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
+5.2%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.17
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.19
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.2%
1.18
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.3%
1.24
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
+2.1%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.4%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.3%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
73.1%
1.31
Unibet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.22
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.0%
1.33
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
73.0%
1.33
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
+5.7%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.5%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.31
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
10Bet
1.22
-3.3%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.40
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
+3.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Millwall
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luke Cundle40%
Tairyk Arconte25%
Josh Coburn20%
Jake Cooper17%
Mark Sykes17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Jenson Metcalfe0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jenson Metcalfe33%
Casper De Norre20%
Lyndon Dykes20%
Josh Coburn20%
Mark Sykes17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Max Crocombe0%
Jake Cooper0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zak Lovelace25%
Jake Cooper17%
Camiel Neghli17%
Jenson Metcalfe17%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Mark Sykes0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Josh Coburn0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Coburn20%
Jordi Osei-Tutu0%
Casper De Norre0%
Max Crocombe0%
Jake Cooper0%
Mark Sykes0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Elkan Baggott0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Jenson Metcalfe0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Wrexham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kieffer Moore40%
Daniel Imray20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben Whiteman40%
Dominic Hyam40%
Bailey Cadamarteri33%
Nathan Broadhead25%
Kieffer Moore20%
Sam Smith20%
Lewis O'Brien20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Daniel Imray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Imray40%
Lewis O'Brien20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Kieffer Moore0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Callum Doyle0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kieffer Moore40%
Sam Smith20%
Daniel Imray20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Millwall's squad is €8m more valuable than Wrexham's (€85m vs €77m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Millwall's attack is €15m more valuable than Wrexham's (€30m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Millwall's midfield is €6m more valuable than Wrexham's (€29m vs €23m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Millwall's defence is €14m less valuable than Wrexham's (€25m vs €39m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston