Defensive solidity will shape the opening of the match, with both sides showing low scoring averages. The model favours an away win, assigning a 43% chance to CSF Bălți, a 33% chance to a draw and a 24% chance for Milsami Orhei. The expected total of 1.9 goals points to a tight game, and the most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 15.9%. Milsami’s home form against weaker opposition shows no goals scored or conceded on average, while CSF Bălți’s away form against stronger teams boasts three goals scored and none conceded. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 carries an 87% probability. The final score of 1-0, a home win, will be a surprise to the forecast. The recent form notes highlight Milsami coming off a draw and CSF Bălți after three straight defeats, adding context to the predicted low-scoring affair.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Milsami Orhei snatched a 1-0 win, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite, CSF Bălţi, which had a 43% chance of triumph. The home side’s recent form, a draw after a string of mixed results, was not enough to stop the visitors’ 3-in-4 losing streak, but the match ended in a home victory. The model’s call was wrong. The only other selection was Under 3.5 goals, with an 87% probability, and it hit as the total of one goal fell well below the threshold. The final score of 1-0 confirmed the home win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Milsami Orhei win✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți win✗ Miss
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
1.08
1.17
1.17
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
1.00
4.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.60
1.50
0.75
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.88
0.25
1.50
1.50
0.25
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
0.33
1.67
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
58.7%
Under 1.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
30.4%
Under 2.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.0%
Under 3.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.4%
No
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.9%
0-1
15.3%
1-1
14.4%
1-0 ✓
10.1%
0-2
9.5%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
5.1%
2-0
4.5%
Milsami Orhei goals ↓
CSF Bălți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
15%
9.5%
3.6%
1.0%
1
10%
14%
7.5%
2.8%
0.8%
2
4.5%
5.1%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
3
1.2%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milsami Orhei goals (down), columns = CSF Bălți goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.38
Floreşti
2.17
Petrocub
2.00
Speranis Nisporeni
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.75
Văsieni
1.50
Spartanii Selemet
1.33
Zimbru
1.29
Milsami Orhei
1.17
Dinamo-Auto
1.11
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
0.92
Făleşti
0.00
Speranța Drochia
0.00
Real Succes
0.00
Sucleia
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.25 points better than CSF Bălți in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Speranis Nisporeni
3.00
Văsieni
3.00
Floreşti
2.33
Victoria Bardar
2.00
Spartanii Selemet
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.67
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.62
Petrocub
1.50
Dinamo-Auto
1.33
Zimbru
1.12
Făleşti
1.00
Real Succes
1.00
Sucleia
1.00
Milsami Orhei
0.92
Sfîntul Gheorghe
0.92
CSF Bălți
0.75
Speranța Drochia
0.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.17 goals better than CSF Bălți in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.38
Petrocub
0.71
Dacia-Buiucani
0.71
Floreşti
0.92
Speranis Nisporeni
1.00
Zimbru
1.08
CSF Bălți
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.25
Dinamo-Auto
1.41
Sfîntul Gheorghe
1.46
Văsieni
1.50
Spartanii Selemet
1.92
Victoria Bardar
2.69
Speranța Drochia
4.00
Făleşti
4.91
Sucleia
6.00
Real Succes
7.00
Milsami Orhei is 0.17 goals worse than CSF Bălți in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.20
1.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.12
0.12
0.00
0.25
0.25
0.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
88% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.42
0.75
0.17
0.83
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.40
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
58% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.75
0.25
1.25
1.25
0.25
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.33
1.33
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Milsami Orhei's squad is €3m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and CSF Bălți have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Milsami Orhei and CSF Bălți have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
Milsami Orhei's defence is €1m more valuable than CSF Bălți's (€2m vs €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Zimbru
Dinamo-Auto
Floreşti
Sfîntul Gheorghe
Spartanii Selemet
Victoria Bardar
Speranis Nisporeni
Văsieni
Sheriff II
Speranța Drochia
Sucleia
Real Succes
Făleşti