This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.20
2.00
0.79
1.88
1.56
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.67
1.00
2.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
2.13
1.17
2.30
0.60
2.00
1.62
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.9%
@ 1.74+1.8%
Under 2.5
44.1%
@ 2.05-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.5%
Under 3.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.6%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.0%
0-0
6.5%
0-1
6.4%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
6.1%
Milton Keynes Dons goals ↓
Doncaster goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
6.4%
5.4%
2.5%
0.9%
1
7.0%
13%
8.1%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.1%
8.7%
6.1%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.1%
4.4%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Milton Keynes Dons goals (down), columns = Doncaster goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Doncaster
1.83
Port Vale
1.74
Bradford
1.70
Walsall
1.67
AFC Wimbledon
1.59
Notts County
1.57
Chesterfield
1.52
Salford
1.50
Grimsby
1.48
Colchester
1.46
Bromley
1.43
Swindon
1.35
Crewe
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
Barrow
1.28
Gillingham
1.26
Harrogate
1.15
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Tranmere
1.11
Accrington
1.09
Newport County
1.07
Carlisle
0.91
Morecambe
0.78
Milton Keynes Dons is 0.70 points worse than Doncaster in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Walsall
1.63
Doncaster
1.59
Chesterfield
1.59
Swindon
1.54
Notts County
1.48
Port Vale
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Bradford
1.39
Salford
1.39
Grimsby
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Accrington
1.15
Colchester
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Newport County
1.13
Barrow
1.13
Crewe
1.07
Tranmere
0.98
Carlisle
0.96
Harrogate
0.93
Gillingham
0.89
Morecambe
0.87
Milton Keynes Dons is 0.46 goals worse than Doncaster in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.59).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AFC Wimbledon
0.76
Bradford
0.98
Port Vale
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Colchester
1.02
Crewe
1.04
Notts County
1.07
Doncaster
1.09
Barrow
1.09
Walsall
1.17
Salford
1.17
Chesterfield
1.17
Bromley
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Harrogate
1.33
Swindon
1.37
Tranmere
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Grimsby
1.46
Accrington
1.50
Cheltenham
1.52
Carlisle
1.54
Morecambe
1.57
Newport County
1.65
Milton Keynes Dons is 0.35 goals worse than Doncaster in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
62%
Chesterfield
61%
Milton Keynes Dons
60%
Carlisle
53%
Swindon
52%
Salford
52%
Doncaster
52%
Tranmere
52%
Colchester
51%
Port Vale
51%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
AFC Wimbledon
49%
Gillingham
49%
Grimsby
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Barrow
47%
Newport County
47%
Cheltenham
45%
Morecambe
45%
Accrington
45%
Walsall
44%
Harrogate
43%
Bromley
42%
Milton Keynes Dons is 7.9 percentage points better than Doncaster in terms of average possession (60% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Milton Keynes Dons
For 4.1 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 13.1 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Doncaster
For 4.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 14.3 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Milton Keynes Dons
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.0
9.0
4.1
4.3
4.0
23.2
22.2
24.2
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
11.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
17.0
17.0
-
vs Similar (25)
8.0
7.9
8.0
4.0
4.2
3.8
23.2
21.9
24.8
vs Weaker (24)
9.9
10.0
9.8
4.2
4.4
4.1
23.4
23.1
23.7
% over line
37%
36%
38%
62%
68%
56%
63%
56%
71%
% under line
63%
64%
62%
38%
32%
44%
37%
44%
29%
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.8
10.9
4.2
4.2
4.2
24.1
23.3
24.7
vs Stronger (5)
10.8
10.5
11.0
3.2
4.0
2.7
22.0
24.5
19.5
vs Similar (38)
10.5
10.2
10.7
4.2
4.1
4.2
24.2
23.1
25.2
vs Weaker (7)
9.7
7.8
12.3
5.0
4.8
5.3
24.4
24.0
25.0
% over line
67%
65%
68%
62%
65%
59%
71%
65%
76%
% under line
33%
35%
32%
38%
35%
41%
29%
35%
24%
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fleetwood Town
11.7
Tranmere
11.6
Bromley
11.5
Harrogate
11.1
Grimsby
11.0
Port Vale
11.0
Notts County
10.8
Morecambe
10.7
Crewe
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Swindon
10.4
Doncaster
10.3
Colchester
10.2
Cheltenham
10.1
Accrington
10.1
Bradford
10.1
Gillingham
10.0
Carlisle
9.9
Barrow
9.8
Newport County
9.8
Salford
9.7
AFC Wimbledon
9.6
Milton Keynes Dons
9.0
Chesterfield
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Colchester
4.6
Bradford
4.5
Salford
4.3
Doncaster
4.3
Morecambe
4.3
Crewe
4.3
Notts County
4.2
AFC Wimbledon
4.2
Milton Keynes Dons
4.2
Cheltenham
4.2
Fleetwood Town
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Barrow
4.1
Tranmere
4.1
Port Vale
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Accrington
3.9
Walsall
3.8
Bromley
3.7
Swindon
3.5
Grimsby
3.5
Carlisle
3.5
Newport County
3.4
Harrogate
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
24.6
Bromley
24.5
Cheltenham
23.9
Doncaster
23.8
Chesterfield
23.7
Grimsby
23.3
Milton Keynes Dons
23.1
Salford
23.1
Bradford
23.0
AFC Wimbledon
22.8
Barrow
22.1
Fleetwood Town
22.0
Colchester
21.9
Crewe
21.9
Newport County
21.8
Morecambe
21.6
Walsall
21.5
Gillingham
20.9
Port Vale
20.7
Swindon
20.3
Tranmere
20.2
Harrogate
20.0
Carlisle
20.0
Notts County
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
65.5%
Under 9.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.2%
Under 3.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
58.9%
Under 21.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Milton Keynes Dons
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.83
1.57
0.50
0.50
1.12
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
1.27
1.67
0.83
0.44
1.56
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.36
1.57
0.14
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
0.93
0.36
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.43
1.10
0.20
1.08
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Milton Keynes Dons
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.79
0.79
0.50
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.87
0.67
0.50
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
1.07
1.00
1.14
0.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Doncaster) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Doncaster
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
1.07
0.43
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.74
1.20
0.40
0.92
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Milton Keynes Dons) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milton Keynes Dons over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Doncaster over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Milton Keynes Dons · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aaron Collins33%
Ryan Wintle33%
Gethin Jones0%
Charlie Goode0%
Marvin Ekpiteta0%
Sam Nombe0%
Callum Paterson0%
Ben Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
Daniel Barlaser0%
Cohen Bramall0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aaron Collins33%
Charlie Goode33%
Gethin Jones0%
Ryan Wintle0%
Marvin Ekpiteta0%
Sam Nombe0%
Callum Paterson0%
Ben Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
Daniel Barlaser0%
Cohen Bramall0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ben Wiles33%
Gethin Jones0%
Aaron Collins0%
Ryan Wintle0%
Charlie Goode0%
Marvin Ekpiteta0%
Sam Nombe0%
Callum Paterson0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
Daniel Barlaser0%
Cohen Bramall0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Charlie Goode33%
Gethin Jones0%
Aaron Collins0%
Ryan Wintle0%
Marvin Ekpiteta0%
Sam Nombe0%
Callum Paterson0%
Ben Wiles0%
Craig McGillivray0%
Curtis Nelson0%
Daniel Barlaser0%
Cohen Bramall0%
Doncaster
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luke Molyneux33%
Billy Sharp33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Jack Senior0%
Joe Ironside0%
Joseph Olowu0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
Thomas Nixon0%
Patrick Kelly0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jack Senior67%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Molyneux0%
Billy Sharp0%
Joe Ironside0%
Joseph Olowu0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
Thomas Nixon0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Gibson33%
Jack Senior0%
Luke Molyneux0%
Billy Sharp0%
Joe Ironside0%
Joseph Olowu0%
Owen Bailey0%
George Broadbent0%
Thomas Nixon0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Owen Bailey33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Jack Senior0%
Luke Molyneux0%
Billy Sharp0%
Joe Ironside0%
Joseph Olowu0%
George Broadbent0%
Thomas Nixon0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (24)
€15m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Milton Keynes Dons's squad is €8m more valuable than Doncaster's (€15m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (8)
€5m
BRA (9)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Milton Keynes Dons's attack is €3m more valuable than Doncaster's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€7m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Milton Keynes Dons's midfield is €5m more valuable than Doncaster's (€7m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Milton Keynes Dons and Doncaster have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Port Vale
Bradford
Walsall
AFC Wimbledon
Notts County
Chesterfield
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Bromley
Swindon
Crewe
Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham
Barrow
Gillingham
Harrogate
Tranmere
Accrington
Newport County
Carlisle
Morecambe