The model rates HNK Cibalia as the clear favourite, assigning an 80% chance of victory against Mladost Ždralovi, who sit at only 6% for a win and 14% for a draw. The high probability reflects Cibalia’s stronger form and the home side’s struggle at home against stronger opponents, where they average only one goal scored and half a goal conceded. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a busy match, and the most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Cibalia, with a 13.1% chance. The single most likely total of three goals carries a 22% probability. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Away +2 handicap (98.4%), Under 7.5 (98.0%), Home under 2.5 goals (97.3%), Under 6.5 (94.9%), Draw or Away (94.0%), Away +1 handicap (94.0%), and Away over 0.5 goals (93.0%). The model’s selections highlight the expectation of a low-scoring, away-dominated affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mladost Ždralovi win
6.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia win
79.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mladost Ždralovi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Cibalia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.00
1.82
0.65
1.31
1.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.60
1.00
1.82
0.65
1.31
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Ždralovi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.1%
Under 2.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 3.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.6%
No
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.1%
0-3
11.6%
0-1
9.2%
1-2
8.4%
0-4
7.7%
1-3
7.4%
1-1
6.9%
1-4
4.9%
Mladost Ždralovi goals ↓
HNK Cibalia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
9.2%
13%
12%
7.7%
1
1.7%
6.9%
8.4%
7.4%
4.9%
2
0.8%
2.0%
2.7%
2.4%
1.6%
3
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost Ždralovi goals (down), columns = HNK Cibalia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Mladost Ždralovi is 1.25 points worse than HNK Cibalia in terms of average points per game (0.51 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Mladost Ždralovi is 1.11 goals worse than HNK Cibalia in terms of goals scored per game (0.43 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Mladost Ždralovi is 2.18 goals worse than HNK Cibalia in terms of goals conceded per game (3.18 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mladost Ždralovi or Draw
20.4%
Avg Implied -
6%
14%
80%
covers Mladost Ždralovi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi or HNK Cibalia
85.6%
Avg Implied -
6%
14%
80%
covers Mladost Ždralovi + HNK Cibalia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or HNK Cibalia
94.0%
Avg Implied -
6%
14%
80%
covers Draw + HNK Cibalia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 0.5
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 1.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 2.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 3.5
Over
0.4%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 0.5
Over
93.0%
Under
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 1.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 2.5
Over
49.7%
Under
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 3.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mladost Ždralovi, so a minus line means Mladost Ždralovi give that many goals of a start and HNK Cibalia receive them. At -1, Mladost Ždralovi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mladost Ždralovi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mladost Ždralovi)
Mladost Ždralovi -2
0.3%
Draw -2
1.3%
HNK Cibalia +2
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mladost Ždralovi)
Mladost Ždralovi -1
1.6%
Draw -1
4.4%
HNK Cibalia +1
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mladost Ždralovi)
Mladost Ždralovi +1
20.4%
Draw +1
20.3%
HNK Cibalia -1
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mladost Ždralovi)
Mladost Ždralovi +2
40.7%
Draw +2
22.2%
HNK Cibalia -2
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mladost Ždralovi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Cibalia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.88
0.24
0.77
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.83
0.43
0.88
0.24
0.77
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Ždralovi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mladost Ždralovi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Cibalia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Cibalia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.94
0.41
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.77
0.57
0.94
0.41
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Ždralovi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Cibalia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Mladost Ždralovi's squad is €1m less valuable than HNK Cibalia's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Mladost Ždralovi and HNK Cibalia have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Mladost Ždralovi and HNK Cibalia have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Mladost Ždralovi and HNK Cibalia have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Croatia Zmijavci
Jadran LP
Dugopolje
Orijent 1919
Opatija
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vukovar
Karlovac 1919
Sesvete
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Kustosija
Dubrava Zagreb
Hrvace