The model rates Karlovac 1919 as the clear favourite, with a 65% chance of victory, 22% for a draw and 13% for a Mladost Ždralovi win. This preference stems from the away side’s strong form against the home team’s weaker venue performance; Mladost Ždralovi average 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded at home, yet they face a stronger opponent. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most probable total being 2 goals, a 25% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 12.1% probability, reflecting Karlovac’s recent 2-2 draw and Mladost’s 1-0 win over Sesvete. Karlovac’s away scoring and conceding against this opponent are not specified, but the model’s selections underline a low-scoring affair: Under 7.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4%), Away +2 handicap (95.8%), and Home under 2.5 goals (95.2%). These picks reinforce the expectation that Karlovac will secure a modest win on the road.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mladost Ždralovi win
13.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 win
64.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mladost Ždralovi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Karlovac 1919) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karlovac 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.53
1.14
1.07
0.88
1.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.00
1.53
1.14
1.07
0.88
1.94
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Ždralovi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.1%
0-1
11.0%
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-3
8.1%
0-0
6.9%
1-3
6.6%
0-4
4.1%
Mladost Ždralovi goals ↓
Karlovac 1919 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
11%
12%
8.1%
4.1%
1
3.8%
11%
9.7%
6.6%
3.3%
2
1.9%
3.9%
3.9%
2.6%
1.3%
3
0.5%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mladost Ždralovi goals (down), columns = Karlovac 1919 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Mladost Ždralovi is 0.76 points worse than Karlovac 1919 in terms of average points per game (0.51 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Mladost Ždralovi is 0.78 goals worse than Karlovac 1919 in terms of goals scored per game (0.43 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Mladost Ždralovi is 1.82 goals worse than Karlovac 1919 in terms of goals conceded per game (3.18 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mladost Ždralovi or Draw
35.4%
Avg Implied -
13%
22%
65%
covers Mladost Ždralovi + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi or Karlovac 1919
77.7%
Avg Implied -
13%
22%
65%
covers Mladost Ždralovi + Karlovac 1919
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Karlovac 1919
86.9%
Avg Implied -
13%
22%
65%
covers Draw + Karlovac 1919
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 0.5
Over
55.4%
Under
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 1.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 2.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 0.5
Over
86.7%
Under
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 1.5
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 2.5
Over
32.8%
Under
67.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 3.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mladost Ždralovi, so a minus line means Mladost Ždralovi give that many goals of a start and Karlovac 1919 receive them. At -1, Mladost Ždralovi must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mladost Ždralovi win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mladost Ždralovi)
Mladost Ždralovi -2
0.9%
Draw -2
3.2%
Karlovac 1919 +2
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mladost Ždralovi)
Mladost Ždralovi -1
4.2%
Draw -1
8.9%
Karlovac 1919 +1
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mladost Ždralovi)
Mladost Ždralovi +1
35.4%
Draw +1
23.8%
Karlovac 1919 -1
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mladost Ždralovi)
Mladost Ždralovi +2
59.2%
Draw +2
20.1%
Karlovac 1919 -2
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mladost Ždralovi
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Karlovac 1919) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karlovac 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.57
0.50
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.67
0.57
0.50
0.31
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Ždralovi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.8%
Under 0.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.0%
Under 1.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.6%
Under 2.5
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.6%
Under
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mladost Ždralovi
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Karlovac 1919) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karlovac 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.57
0.57
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.57
0.87
0.57
0.57
0.56
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mladost Ždralovi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.6%
Under 0.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.1%
Under 1.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.1%
Under 2.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mladost Ždralovi over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karlovac 1919 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Mladost Ždralovi's squad is €3m less valuable than Karlovac 1919's (€0m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Mladost Ždralovi's attack is €2m less valuable than Karlovac 1919's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Mladost Ždralovi and Karlovac 1919 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Mladost Ždralovi and Karlovac 1919 have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Croatia Zmijavci
Jadran LP
Dugopolje
HNK Cibalia
Orijent 1919
Opatija
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vukovar
Sesvete
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Kustosija
Dubrava Zagreb
Hrvace