Monza, the clear favourite, is poised to take advantage of Empoli's struggles at home, particularly against teams of similar strength. This is evident in the model's high probability of a home win, standing at 68%. The model also predicts a draw at 22% and an away win at 10%. The expected total goals for this match is 2.6, with the most likely total goals being 2. The model's selection for the match result is a home win.
The most likely scoreline is 2-0 for Monza, with a probability of 14.5%. Monza has a strong home form, scoring 1.62 goals on average and conceding 0.5 goals. Empoli, on the other hand, has struggled away, scoring 1 goal on average and conceding 1.42 goals.
The model's suggested picks include Over 21.5 fouls at 89.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 74.1%, and Under 3.5 goals at 73.7%. The home win percentage is 68%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 10%.
Results analysis
A stunning draw unfolded at Monza, where Empoli's resilient performance thwarted the home side's winning momentum. The win extends Monza's run to three consecutive draws, but it was not enough to lift them above Empoli's recent form, which had seen them draw two and lose one of their last four matches. The final score was a 2-2 stalemate, a far cry from the 2-0 or 1-0 wins that the model had predicted with 14.5% and 13.8% likelihood respectively. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, as it had been forecasted with a 68% probability. Meanwhile, the model's other selections, Over 21.5 fouls and Over 1.5, hit and hit respectively, with 89.9% and 74.1% probability respectively. Under 3.5, however, missed the mark with a 73.7% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Monza win✗ Miss
68.4%
Avg Implied 55.4% · @ 1.65
Edge
+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.7%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.83
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Empoli win✗ Miss
9.9%
Avg Implied 20.8% · @ 4.40
Edge
-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Monza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.80
2.00
0.57
1.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.76
0.88
1.62
0.50
1.89
1.22
vs Weaker (13)
1.69
0.69
2.50
0.67
1.00
0.71
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Empoli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.40
1.07
0.93
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.16
1.32
1.25
1.00
1.08
1.62
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.20
2.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.69-6.8%
Under 2.5
52.0%
@ 2.05+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.9%
No
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.5%
1-0
13.8%
1-1
10.1%
3-0
9.5%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.4%
3-1
5.9%
4-0
4.7%
Monza goals ↓
Empoli goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
3.7%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
1
14%
10%
2.9%
0.6%
0.1%
2
15%
9.0%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
9.5%
5.9%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
4.7%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Monza goals (down), columns = Empoli goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Venezia
2.16
Frosinone
2.13
Monza
1.98
Palermo
1.88
Catanzaro
1.58
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Cesena
1.21
Padova
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Bari
1.05
Reggiana
0.97
Spezia
0.92
Pescara
0.92
Monza is 0.90 points better than Empoli in terms of average points per game (1.98 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
2.03
Frosinone
2.00
Catanzaro
1.63
Monza
1.60
Palermo
1.57
Pescara
1.34
Modena
1.26
Carrarese
1.24
Empoli
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Spezia
1.13
Avellino
1.10
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Bari
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Reggiana
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Monza is 0.36 goals better than Empoli in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Venezia
0.82
Monza
0.88
Frosinone
0.89
Palermo
0.90
Modena
0.95
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Cesena
1.47
Reggiana
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Bari
1.50
Mantova
1.50
Spezia
1.55
Pescara
1.74
Monza is 0.54 goals better than Empoli in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Venezia
64%
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Monza
52%
Pescara
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Frosinone
50%
Palermo
49%
Spezia
48%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Bari
46%
Reggiana
41%
Sudtirol
41%
Monza is 4.1 percentage points better than Empoli in terms of average possession (52% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Monza
For 5.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 13.2 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Empoli
For 4.9 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.0 · Against 15.3 · Total 33.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monza
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.5
8.6
4.1
3.7
4.5
27.1
27.1
27.1
vs Stronger (6)
10.2
11.5
9.5
3.2
4.5
2.5
19.2
24.0
16.8
vs Similar (28)
8.6
8.9
8.2
4.6
3.4
5.9
27.9
26.6
29.1
vs Weaker (16)
9.5
10.1
8.9
3.6
4.1
3.0
28.6
28.6
28.6
% over line
40%
50%
31%
54%
42%
65%
82%
83%
81%
% under line
60%
50%
69%
46%
58%
35%
18%
17%
19%
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Empoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.2
9.7
4.3
4.5
4.2
29.8
30.1
29.4
vs Stronger (6)
8.0
8.7
7.3
4.7
4.3
5.0
25.2
22.3
28.0
vs Similar (36)
9.3
8.7
9.9
4.3
4.4
4.2
29.9
30.9
28.8
vs Weaker (8)
11.4
12.2
10.5
4.2
5.2
3.2
32.6
32.0
33.2
% over line
48%
42%
54%
70%
77%
62%
90%
92%
88%
% under line
52%
58%
46%
30%
23%
38%
10%
8%
12%
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Pescara
10.6
Carrarese
10.4
Padova
10.1
Virtus Entella
10.1
Spezia
10.0
Frosinone
10.0
Palermo
9.8
Bari
9.8
Mantova
9.6
Empoli
9.5
Reggiana
9.3
Cesena
9.3
Juve Stabia
9.2
Avellino
9.2
Sampdoria
9.1
Venezia
9.1
Monza
9.1
Catanzaro
8.9
Modena
8.9
Sudtirol
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spezia
5.4
Mantova
5.2
Sampdoria
5.2
Carrarese
5.2
Pescara
5.1
Avellino
5.0
Juve Stabia
4.9
Modena
4.9
Reggiana
4.8
Palermo
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Padova
4.8
Catanzaro
4.7
Bari
4.7
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.4
Empoli
4.4
Venezia
4.3
Monza
4.2
Cesena
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.9
Spezia
32.3
Juve Stabia
31.3
Avellino
31.2
Pescara
31.1
Sudtirol
30.5
Frosinone
30.5
Venezia
29.9
Catanzaro
29.8
Virtus Entella
29.8
Empoli
29.8
Reggiana
29.5
Padova
29.5
Modena
28.9
Carrarese
28.2
Bari
28.2
Palermo
27.9
Monza
27.1
Cesena
26.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.6%
Under 9.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.2%
Under 3.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.2%
Under 21.5
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Monza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.79
0.29
0.69
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.47
0.50
0.38
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.31
1.17
0.17
0.29
0.43
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Empoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.56
0.33
0.67
0.62
0.46
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Monza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Monza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.40
1.21
0.29
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.41
1.12
0.12
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.38
1.33
0.50
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Empoli) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Empoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
1.00
0.33
0.40
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.76
0.92
0.33
0.46
1.15
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Monza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Empoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
MON (29)
€70m
PAL (27)
€54m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
SPE (34)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
PES (27)
€8m
REG (27)
€8m
BAR (22)
€8m
Monza's squad is €50m more valuable than Empoli's (€70m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (9)
€39m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
PES (10)
€4m
SPE (10)
€3m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
JS (8)
€2m
BAR (6)
€2m
REG (6)
€1m
Monza's attack is €15m more valuable than Empoli's (€26m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (11)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
SPE (11)
€4m
BAR (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
REG (9)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
PES (6)
€1m
Monza's midfield is €18m more valuable than Empoli's (€24m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VEN (16)
€47m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
JS (14)
€6m
REG (12)
€4m
EMP (9)
€4m
SPE (13)
€4m
PES (11)
€3m
BAR (10)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Monza's defence is €16m more valuable than Empoli's (€20m vs €4m).
Italy: Serie B 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Venezia
Frosinone
Palermo
Catanzaro
Modena
Juve Stabia
Avellino
Padova
Cesena
Mantova
Carrarese
Sampdoria
Sudtirol
Virtus Entella
Bari
Reggiana
Pescara
Spezia