This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.37
0.81
1.38
0.71
1.36
vs Stronger (26)
0.77
1.46
0.79
1.43
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Morecambe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.4%
Under 1.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.2%
@ 1.89-5.8%
Under 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.89+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.1%
Under 3.5
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.7%
No
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.4%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
0-2 ✓
5.4%
Morecambe goals ↓
Carlisle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10.0%
8.4%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.7%
2
7.7%
8.5%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.4%
3.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Morecambe goals (down), columns = Carlisle goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Doncaster
1.83
Port Vale
1.74
Bradford
1.70
Walsall
1.67
AFC Wimbledon
1.59
Notts County
1.57
Chesterfield
1.52
Salford
1.50
Grimsby
1.48
Colchester
1.46
Bromley
1.43
Swindon
1.35
Crewe
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
Barrow
1.28
Gillingham
1.26
Harrogate
1.15
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Tranmere
1.11
Accrington
1.09
Newport County
1.07
Carlisle
0.91
Morecambe
0.78
Morecambe is 0.13 points worse than Carlisle in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 0.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Walsall
1.63
Doncaster
1.59
Chesterfield
1.59
Swindon
1.54
Notts County
1.48
Port Vale
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Bradford
1.39
Salford
1.39
Grimsby
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Accrington
1.15
Colchester
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Newport County
1.13
Barrow
1.13
Crewe
1.07
Tranmere
0.98
Carlisle
0.96
Harrogate
0.93
Gillingham
0.89
Morecambe
0.87
Morecambe is 0.09 goals worse than Carlisle in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 0.96).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AFC Wimbledon
0.76
Bradford
0.98
Port Vale
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Colchester
1.02
Crewe
1.04
Notts County
1.07
Doncaster
1.09
Barrow
1.09
Walsall
1.17
Salford
1.17
Chesterfield
1.17
Bromley
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Harrogate
1.33
Swindon
1.37
Tranmere
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Grimsby
1.46
Accrington
1.50
Cheltenham
1.52
Carlisle
1.54
Morecambe
1.57
Newport County
1.65
Morecambe is 0.02 goals worse than Carlisle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
62%
Chesterfield
61%
Milton Keynes Dons
60%
Carlisle
53%
Swindon
52%
Salford
52%
Doncaster
52%
Tranmere
52%
Colchester
51%
Port Vale
51%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
AFC Wimbledon
49%
Gillingham
49%
Grimsby
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Barrow
47%
Newport County
47%
Cheltenham
45%
Morecambe
45%
Accrington
45%
Walsall
44%
Harrogate
43%
Bromley
42%
Morecambe is 7.7 percentage points worse than Carlisle in terms of average possession (45% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Morecambe
For 3.6 · Against 6.9 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 13.6 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Carlisle
For 4.9 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morecambe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.4
3.6
3.6
3.6
24.5
24.2
24.8
vs Stronger (42)
10.2
10.2
10.3
3.6
3.5
3.7
24.8
24.6
25.1
vs Similar (8)
12.2
13.8
10.8
3.9
4.2
3.5
23.1
22.8
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
71%
52%
52%
52%
52%
72%
71%
74%
% under line
38%
29%
48%
48%
48%
48%
28%
29%
26%
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.2
4.1
3.9
4.3
22.5
22.8
22.2
vs Stronger (44)
10.3
10.2
10.4
3.9
3.5
4.3
22.6
23.1
22.1
vs Similar (6)
9.5
9.8
9.0
5.7
6.0
5.0
22.2
21.2
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
46%
54%
56%
50%
62%
60%
58%
62%
% under line
50%
54%
46%
44%
50%
38%
40%
42%
38%
This opponent (Morecambe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Doncaster
10.7
Morecambe
10.6
Harrogate
10.5
Bromley
10.3
Carlisle
10.3
Chesterfield
10.0
Port Vale
9.9
Walsall
9.8
Fleetwood Town
9.8
Newport County
9.8
Notts County
9.8
Swindon
9.8
Tranmere
9.8
Crewe
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Barrow
9.7
Grimsby
9.6
Colchester
9.2
Bradford
9.2
Accrington
9.0
AFC Wimbledon
8.8
Salford
8.8
Milton Keynes Dons
8.7
Gillingham
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Accrington
4.7
Bradford
4.7
Gillingham
4.5
Colchester
4.4
Salford
4.4
Grimsby
4.4
Crewe
4.3
Carlisle
4.3
Chesterfield
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
Barrow
4.1
Doncaster
4.1
AFC Wimbledon
4.0
Notts County
4.0
Morecambe
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Port Vale
3.8
Walsall
3.8
Newport County
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Cheltenham
3.6
Swindon
3.3
Harrogate
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
25.2
Grimsby
25.0
Cheltenham
24.8
Salford
24.7
Morecambe
24.6
Bradford
24.6
Colchester
24.3
Gillingham
23.8
Doncaster
23.7
Crewe
23.6
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Newport County
22.9
Carlisle
22.3
Tranmere
22.3
Barrow
22.1
Port Vale
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Fleetwood Town
22.0
Harrogate
21.9
Walsall
21.5
Swindon
21.2
Bromley
20.9
Notts County
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.0%
Under 9.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.1%
Under 3.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.6%
Under 21.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Morecambe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.43
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.47
vs Stronger (26)
0.35
0.50
0.31
0.46
0.38
0.54
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.50
0.44
0.62
0.29
0.36
vs Stronger (26)
0.35
0.58
0.43
0.71
0.25
0.42
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Morecambe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Morecambe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morecambe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morecambe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Morecambe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.07
0.73
0.87
0.33
1.27
vs Stronger (26)
0.46
1.12
0.69
0.85
0.23
1.38
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carlisle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.87
0.38
0.75
0.43
1.00
vs Stronger (26)
0.42
0.88
0.36
0.71
0.50
1.08
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Morecambe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Morecambe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morecambe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morecambe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (24)
€15m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Morecambe and Carlisle have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (8)
€5m
BRA (9)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€7m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Morecambe and Carlisle have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Morecambe and Carlisle have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Doncaster
Port Vale
Bradford
Walsall
AFC Wimbledon
Notts County
Chesterfield
Salford
Grimsby
Colchester
Bromley
Swindon
Crewe
Fleetwood Town
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