Moreirense vs Benfica Result & Analysis

Moreirense’s recent win over Casa Pia offers a brief lift, yet the Primeira Liga clash still favours Benfica, who are on a four-game winning streak and have been scoring 1.33 goals per away match against weaker opposition. The model picks an away win, with probabilities of 27% for a home win, 28% for a draw and 46% for an away win. The expected total is 2.7 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that is 26% likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.2% chance.

Moreirense, playing at home against a stronger side, averages zero goals scored and one conceded, while Benfica, away from home, averages 1.33 scored and 0.83 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s suggested picks are: Over 2.5 cards at 85.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 83.1%, Over 1.5 at 76.2%, Under 3.5 at 71.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 70.2% and Over 3.5 cards at 70.2%.

The pre-match favourite, Benfica, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction of an away win with a 46% probability. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score was a stalemate. Moreirense’s win in their previous game had lifted their form, while Benfica was on a four-game winning streak before this fixture. The model’s selections all hit: Over 2.5 cards at 85.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 83.1%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.2%, Under 3.5 goals at 71.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 70.2%, and Over 3.5 cards again at 70.2%. The most likely scoreline was 1-1, matching the actual result.