This match between MTK Budapest and Puskas Academy in the Hungarian NB I league is finely balanced, with Puskas Academy coming off a win against MTK Budapest in their last encounter, while MTK Budapest suffered a defeat in their last outing against Puskas Academy. The model's selection is the away win, with a 38% chance of success, closely followed by a 35% chance of a home win and a 27% chance of a draw.
The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's most likely score is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance of occurrence. MTK Budapest have averaged 2.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded at home, while Puskas Academy have averaged 1.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls at 80.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.1% with a 2% edge, and Over 3.5 cards at 70.6%. The predicted probabilities for the match result are 35% for a home win, 27% for a draw, and 38% for an away win.
Results analysis
The win extends MTK Budapest's run of draws and losses, but it's the away team that takes the spoils. The final score was 2-3 in favour of Puskas Academy, confirming the actual result of an away win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Puskas Academy, to win with a pre-match probability of 38%. The model's selection, an away win, was the correct call. The model also suggested several other selections, with 'Over 21.5 fouls' hitting at 80.7%, 'Over 1.5' hitting at 80.1%, and 'Over 3.5 cards' hitting at 70.6%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
MTK Budapest winâś— Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.63
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
Bet365
2.70
Superbet
2.67
Dafabet
2.65
Drawâś— Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.42
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.53
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Puskas Academy winâś“ Hit
38.3%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.39
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.48
Bet365
2.45
Dafabet
2.42
Superbet
2.42
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
MTK Budapest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.83
2.33
1.40
1.27
2.27
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
1.88
1.71
2.33
1.17
1.42
2.25
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.75
3.00
2.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.30
1.00
1.43
1.38
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
1.31
1.00
1.38
1.23
1.23
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
-
-
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
@ 1.20+2.5%
Under 1.5
19.9%
@ 4.13-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.38
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.0%
@ 1.66-0.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
@ 2.12+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.70
888Sport
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.18
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.6%
@ 2.62-1.7%
Under 3.5
66.4%
@ 1.43+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
888Sport
2.70
Betfair
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Under
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.1%
@ 1.55+0.5%
No
39.9%
@ 2.29-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.55
No
1xBet
2.32
Betano
2.32
888Sport
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%@ 6.28+5.7%
1-2
8.6%@ 8.37+3.4%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.65+3.1%
0-1
6.9%@ 9.12+2.1%
0-0
6.5%@ 11.78+2.8%
1-0
6.5%@ 9.35+1.8%
2-2
6.1%@ 10.48+2.0%
0-2
6.1%@ 11.69+2.3%
MTK Budapest goals ↓
Puskas Academy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
6.9%
6.1%
3.0%
1.1%
1
6.5%
13%
8.6%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.4%
8.2%
6.1%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.6%
3.9%
2.9%
1.5%
0.5%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MTK Budapest goals (down), columns = Puskas Academy goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Puskas Academy
2.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.80
Ferencvarosi TC
1.75
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
MTK Budapest is 0.50 points worse than Puskas Academy in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Gyori ETO FC
2.20
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ferencvarosi TC
1.25
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
MTK Budapest is 0.50 goals better than Puskas Academy in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gyori ETO FC
0.80
Vasas
1.17
Ferencvarosi TC
1.25
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
MTK Budapest is 0.33 goals worse than Puskas Academy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
57%
Gyori ETO FC
56%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
MTK Budapest is 4.6 percentage points better than Puskas Academy in terms of average possession (50% vs 45%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.87
0.80
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.71
0.83
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
1.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.43
0.57
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.62
0.46
0.62
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
-
-
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MTK Budapest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.00
1.47
0.60
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.21
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.92
1.50
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.25
1.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.57
0.86
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.69
0.54
0.77
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
80.1%
1.20
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
888Sport
1.20
+2.5%
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.5%
1.32
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+8.8%
âś— Miss
Over 3.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
MTK Budapest and Puskas Academy have a similar squad value (both €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
MTK Budapest's attack is €2m less valuable than Puskas Academy's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
MTK Budapest's midfield is €2m more valuable than Puskas Academy's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
MTK Budapest and Puskas Academy have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ujpest
Gyori ETO FC
Vasas
Paks
Ferencvarosi TC
Nyiregyhaza
Budapest Honved
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE