PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Nafta vs Bistrica Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2026
Time: 14:30
Final 2-1
Nafta
Nafta
Vs
55%
25%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nafta win✓ Hit
55.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bistrica win✗ Miss
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NaftaNafta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W42W11D11D21W11D41W20W30W20WA·TRI14/11A·SLO22/11H·RUD27/02A·KRK08/03H·DRA16/03A·GOR21/03H·KRŠ28/03A·JES04/04H·DEK11/04A·TAB17/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.031.132.271.471.800.80
vs Stronger (2)1.003.001.006.001.000.00
vs Similar (12)1.501.251.201.601.711.00
vs Weaker (16)2.560.813.000.892.000.71
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D30W30W12L22D11D01L21W12LA·SLO15/11A·RUD21/11H·KRK28/02A·DRA07/03H·GOR14/03A·KRŠ21/03H·JES29/03A·DEK03/04H·TAB12/04A·ILI17/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.172.401.071.401.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.771.192.231.151.311.23
vs Weaker (4)2.751.003.500.502.001.50
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.3%
Under 2.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1 ✓
9.9%
2-0
9.3%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
6.3%
3-1
6.2%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
Nafta goals ↓
Bistrica goals →
01234
06.3%4.6%3.0%1.1%0.3%
18.9%12%5.6%2.0%0.5%
29.3%9.9%5.3%1.9%0.5%
35.8%6.2%3.3%1.2%0.3%
42.7%2.9%1.5%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Bistrica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Nafta is 1.00 points better than Bistrica in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Nafta is 0.50 goals better than Bistrica in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 1.67).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Nafta is 0.43 goals better than Bistrica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NaftaNafta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W00D01L10W00D01L10W00D20WA·TRI14/11A·SLO22/11H·RUD27/02A·KRK08/03H·DRA16/03A·GOR21/03H·KRŠ28/03A·JES04/04H·DEK11/04A·TAB17/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.430.730.601.000.27
vs Stronger (2)0.502.000.004.001.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.830.330.400.401.140.29
vs Weaker (16)0.940.311.000.330.860.29
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D10W20W01L11D11D00D00D10WA·SLO15/11A·RUD21/11H·KRK28/02A·DRA07/03H·GOR14/03A·KRŠ21/03H·JES29/03A·DEK03/04H·TAB12/04A·ILI17/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.701.070.730.930.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.920.730.920.770.920.69
vs Weaker (4)1.500.502.000.501.000.50
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NaftaNafta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W22D11D10W11D11D40W10W30W00DA·TRI14/11A·SLO22/11H·RUD27/02A·KRK08/03H·DRA16/03A·GOR21/03H·KRŠ28/03A·JES04/04H·DEK11/04A·TAB17/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.701.530.870.800.53
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.670.920.801.200.570.71
vs Weaker (16)1.620.502.000.561.140.43
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bistrica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BistricaBistrica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D20W10W11D11D00D01L21W02LA·SLO15/11A·RUD21/11H·KRK28/02A·DRA07/03H·GOR14/03A·KRŠ21/03H·JES29/03A·DEK03/04H·TAB12/04A·ILI17/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.471.330.330.470.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.850.461.310.380.380.54
vs Weaker (4)1.250.501.500.001.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bistrica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Nafta's squad is €1m more valuable than Bistrica's (€2m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Nafta and Bistrica have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Nafta and Bistrica have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Nafta and Bistrica have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
NAF wins
0
Draws
3
BIS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Nafta vs Bistrica · H/A from NAF
DateH/AGameScore
11/10/25ABistrica Vs NAF0-2
13/11/23HNAF Vs Bistrica3-1
29/08/23ABistrica Vs NAF1-0
22/04/23ABistrica Vs NAF1-0
07/10/22HNAF Vs Bistrica0-2

NaftaNafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/26ATabor Sežana Vs NAF0-2
11/04/26HNAF Vs Dekani3-0
04/04/26AJesenice Vs NAF0-2
28/03/26HNAF Vs Krško4-1
21/03/26AGorica Vs NAF1-1
16/03/26HNAF Vs Dravinja2-1
08/03/26AKrka Vs NAF1-1
27/02/26HNAF Vs Rudar1-1
22/11/25ASlovan Ljubljana Vs NAF2-4
14/11/25ATriglav Vs NAF0-2

BistricaBistrica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/26AIlirija Vs BIS2-1
12/04/26HBIS Vs Tabor Sežana2-1
03/04/26ADekani Vs BIS1-0
29/03/26HBIS Vs Jesenice1-1
21/03/26AKrško Vs BIS2-2
14/03/26HBIS Vs Gorica1-2
07/03/26ADravinja Vs BIS0-3
28/02/26HBIS Vs Krka3-0
21/11/25ARudar Vs BIS0-0
15/11/25ASlovan Ljubljana Vs BIS2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.66
HomeDDWWW1.80
AwayWDDWW1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%52%40%
AVG goals2.963.322.60
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %48%60%36%
Over 3.5 %34%40%28%
Scored1.621.921.32
Conceded1.341.401.28
BTTS58%72%44%
Clean Sheet28%16%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Bistrica
Bistrica
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL1.70
HomeWWLDW2.04
AwayDWDLL1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%60%32%
AVG goals3.023.482.56
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %58%64%52%
Over 3.5 %36%40%32%
Scored1.902.321.48
Conceded1.121.161.08
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet34%28%40%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3075
77%
2.5
7026+44
3.2
83%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.9
-
2NaftaNafta3075
77%
2.5
6523+42
2.9
90%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.8
-
3TriglavTriglav3064
67%
2.1
7228+44
3.3
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.40.9
-
4BeltinciBeltinci3060
60%
2.0
5525+30
2.7
77%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.80.8
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3050
50%
1.7
3733+4
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.1
-
6BistricaBistrica3045
43%
1.5
5036+14
2.9
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.2
-
7RudarRudar3037
30%
1.2
4639+7
2.8
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.51.3
-
8DravinjaDravinja3037
33%
1.2
3244-12
2.5
80%
43%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.5
-
9BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
2747-20
2.5
60%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.91.6
-
10DekaniDekani3033
27%
1.1
4046-6
2.9
83%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.31.5
-
11Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3032
30%
1.1
3252-20
2.8
77%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.7
-
12KrkaKrka3029
20%
1.0
3251-19
2.8
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.7
-
13IlirijaIlirija3027
20%
0.9
3852-14
3.0
87%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.7
-
14KrškoKrško3026
23%
0.9
2462-38
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.1
-
15GoricaGorica3022
13%
0.7
3145-14
2.5
73%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16JeseniceJesenice3018
13%
0.6
2668-42
3.1
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

← all matches