Nafta’s recent run of three consecutive defeats has left them looking for a turnaround, while Brinje-Grosuplje, fresh from a win, will try to keep the momentum. The model favours a home win, giving Nafta a 45% chance, a draw 24%, and an away win 31%. The expected total of 3.6 goals points to a lively match, and the most likely total is three goals, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at 9.8%. Nafta’s home form shows an average of two goals scored and 1.75 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Brinje-Grosuplje averages 2.14 scored and 2.0 conceded on the road. The model’s selection is Over 1.5, with an 87.9% probability, and it has hit. The match is set to be high-scoring and competitive, with Nafta slightly favoured to lift the trophy.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Nafta, failed to deliver, ending the game in a 1-1 draw that left the model’s call wrong. The model had given Nafta a 45% chance of victory, but the match finished level. The home side’s recent form - three straight defeats before a win over Maribor - did not translate into a win, while Brinje-Grosuplje, after a win over Celje, managed to hold them to a stalemate. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 87.9% probability, as the match saw two goals. The most likely score of 1-1, with a 21% chance, proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nafta win✗ Miss
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje win✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nafta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.53
2.25
1.69
1.36
1.36
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.33
1.00
2.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.75
1.29
1.57
vs Weaker (9)
2.67
0.78
3.40
1.00
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brinje-Grosuplje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.90
2.50
0.44
2.43
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.69
1.15
1.17
0.17
2.14
2.00
vs Weaker (17)
3.06
0.71
3.30
0.60
2.71
0.86
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.9%
Under 1.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.0%
Under 2.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.7%
Under 3.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.5%
No
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
9.8%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
7.0%
3-1
5.7%
2-0
5.4%
1-0
4.7%
3-2
4.6%
Nafta goals ↓
Brinje-Grosuplje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
3.7%
3.6%
1.9%
0.8%
1
4.7%
9.8%
7.1%
3.8%
1.5%
2
5.4%
8.7%
7.0%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.6%
5.7%
4.6%
2.4%
1.0%
4
1.7%
2.8%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Brinje-Grosuplje goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Nafta and Brinje-Grosuplje are level in average points per game (both 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Nafta is 0.17 goals worse than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 2.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Nafta is 0.10 goals better than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 0.87).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nafta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.88
0.88
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.17
0.00
1.67
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.73
0.75
0.88
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.33
1.60
0.40
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brinje-Grosuplje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.40
1.12
0.25
1.14
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.46
0.50
0.17
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (17)
1.29
0.35
1.50
0.30
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nafta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.83
1.38
0.81
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.93
1.25
0.88
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
0.44
1.80
0.60
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brinje-Grosuplje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.50
1.38
0.19
1.29
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.69
0.67
0.00
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (17)
1.76
0.35
1.80
0.30
1.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Nafta and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
Nafta and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Nafta and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Nafta and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Triglav
Beltinci
Tabor Sežana
Bistrica
Rudar
Dravinja
Bilje
Dekani
Slovan Ljubljana
Krka
Ilirija
Krško
Gorica
Jesenice