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Nafta vs Triglav Result & Analysis

Date: 22/05/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Nafta
Nafta
Vs
37%
28%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Triglav
Triglav
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Odd / Even7 Home & Away Over/Under8 Handicap9 Top picks for this game10 Squad value11 Games History12 Overall Statistics13 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Nafta a 37% win probability against Triglav in the Slovenia: 2. SNL on 2026-05-22, with 28% for the draw and 35% for Triglav. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (78%).

Results analysis

Nafta finished 1-1 against Triglav (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 37% home win, 28% draw and 35% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (78%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nafta win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Triglav win✗ Miss
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NaftaNafta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D41W20W30W20W21W20W10W21W12LA·GOR21/03H·KRŠ28/03A·JES04/04H·DEK11/04A·TAB17/04H·BIS25/04A·ILI30/04A·BIL06/05H·BEL10/05A·BRI17/05
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.170.732.570.861.810.62
vs Stronger (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (11)1.820.821.800.801.830.83
vs Weaker (18)2.440.723.000.891.890.56
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TriglavTriglav

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W20W20W21W10W40W30W20W10W04LA·SLO20/03H·RUD27/03A·KRK03/04H·DRA11/04A·GOR18/04H·KRŠ24/04A·JES30/04H·DEK06/05A·TAB10/05H·BIS16/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.401.032.621.192.140.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.331.561.601.601.001.50
vs Weaker (21)2.860.813.091.002.600.60
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.3%
Under 2.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.0%
Under 3.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.1%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.4%
0-0
7.2%
0-1
7.1%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
Nafta goals ↓
Triglav goals →
01234
07.2%7.1%5.8%2.7%0.9%
17.4%13%8.2%3.8%1.3%
26.1%8.5%5.9%2.7%0.9%
32.9%4.0%2.8%1.3%0.4%
41.0%1.4%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Triglav goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.50
Nafta
2.50
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Gorica
0.73
Jesenice
0.60
Nafta is 0.37 points better than Triglav in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 2.13).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Brinje-Grosuplje
2.33
Nafta
2.17
Beltinci
1.83
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Gorica
1.03
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Nafta is 0.23 goals worse than Triglav in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 2.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.77
Beltinci
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje
0.87
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Dravinja
1.47
Gorica
1.50
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Ilirija
1.73
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Nafta is 0.17 goals better than Triglav in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 0.93).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (43)
€3m
BRI (26)
€3m
BEL (31)
€2m
NAF (24)
€2m
TRI (32)
€2m
BIS (39)
€2m
DEK (50)
€2m
RUD (52)
€2m
SL (36)
€2m
BIL (46)
€2m
ILI (46)
€2m
KRK (42)
€2m
DRA (34)
€1m
KRŠ (36)
€1m
JES (35)
€1m
Nafta and Triglav have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (0)
€0m
NAF (0)
€0m
BEL (0)
€0m
BIL (0)
€0m
BIS (0)
€0m
DEK (0)
€0m
DRA (0)
€0m
ILI (0)
€0m
JES (0)
€0m
KRK (0)
€0m
KRŠ (0)
€0m
RUD (0)
€0m
SL (0)
€0m
TS (0)
€0m
TRI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Nafta vs Triglav · H/A from NAF
DateH/AGameScore
14/11/25ATriglav Vs NAF0-2
03/05/24ATriglav Vs NAF1-2
15/10/23HNAF Vs Triglav0-0
07/04/23ATriglav Vs NAF1-0
23/09/22HNAF Vs Triglav2-0

NaftaNafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/05/26ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs NAF2-1
10/05/26HNAF Vs Beltinci2-1
06/05/26ABilje Vs NAF0-1
30/04/26AIlirija Vs NAF0-2
25/04/26HNAF Vs Bistrica2-1
17/04/26ATabor Sežana Vs NAF0-2
11/04/26HNAF Vs Dekani3-0
04/04/26AJesenice Vs NAF0-2
28/03/26HNAF Vs Krško4-1
21/03/26AGorica Vs NAF1-1

TriglavTriglav

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/26HTRI Vs Bistrica0-4
10/05/26ATabor Sežana Vs TRI0-1
06/05/26HTRI Vs Dekani2-0
30/04/26AJesenice Vs TRI0-3
24/04/26HTRI Vs Krško4-0
18/04/26AGorica Vs TRI0-1
11/04/26HTRI Vs Dravinja2-1
03/04/26AKrka Vs TRI0-2
27/03/26HTRI Vs Rudar2-0
20/03/26ASlovan Ljubljana Vs TRI1-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.88
HomeWWWWW2.12
AwayWWWWL1.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%62%46%
AVG goals3.023.502.58
Over 1.5 %84%88%81%
Over 2.5 %52%67%38%
Over 3.5 %34%42%27%
Scored1.742.121.38
Conceded1.281.381.19
BTTS60%79%42%
Clean Sheet32%17%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Triglav
Triglav
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL2.10
HomeWWWWL2.04
AwayWWWWW2.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%65%71%
AVG goals3.463.962.92
Over 1.5 %78%85%71%
Over 2.5 %58%69%46%
Over 3.5 %44%58%29%
Scored2.402.811.96
Conceded1.061.150.96
BTTS36%38%33%
Clean Sheet46%46%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3075
77%
2.5
7026+44
3.2
83%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0002.30.9
-
2NaftaNafta3075
77%
2.5
6523+42
2.9
90%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.20.8
-
3TriglavTriglav3064
67%
2.1
7228+44
3.3
83%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0002.40.9
-
4BeltinciBeltinci3060
60%
2.0
5525+30
2.7
77%
53%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.80.8
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3050
50%
1.7
3733+4
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0001.21.1
-
6BistricaBistrica3045
43%
1.5
5036+14
2.9
83%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.71.2
-
7RudarRudar3037
30%
1.2
4639+7
2.8
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.51.3
-
8DravinjaDravinja3037
33%
1.2
3244-12
2.5
80%
43%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
9BiljeBilje3034
30%
1.1
2747-20
2.5
60%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0000.91.6
-
10DekaniDekani3033
27%
1.1
4046-6
2.9
83%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.5
-
11Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3032
30%
1.1
3252-20
2.8
77%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.7
-
12KrkaKrka3029
20%
1.0
3251-19
2.8
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.11.7
-
13IlirijaIlirija3027
20%
0.9
3852-14
3.0
87%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0001.31.7
-
14KrškoKrško3026
23%
0.9
2462-38
2.9
87%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.1
-
15GoricaGorica3022
13%
0.7
3145-14
2.5
73%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
16JeseniceJesenice3018
13%
0.6
2668-42
3.1
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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