Nancy and Montpellier face off in Ligue 2 on August 14th. Coming off a draw, Nancy's recent form has been inconsistent, with a last 5-game stretch of DWWDL. They've struggled to score at home, averaging 1.43 goals per game against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.71 goals. Montpellier, also coming off a draw, has a more promising away record, scoring 1.5 goals per game against weaker opponents and conceding just 0.5 goals. The model predicts a Montpellier win, with a 54% chance of victory. The expected total goals is 2.2, with the most likely score being 0-1 in 15.2% of games. The model's most likely score is 0-1, but it also suggests two selections: Over 21.5 fouls with a 90.8% probability and Under 3.5 goals with an 82.2% probability, holding a 12% edge. The probabilities for a Nancy win, draw, and Montpellier win are 17%, 29%, and 54% respectively.
Results analysis
The win extends Nancy's losing streak to four games, coming off the back of a defeat. The final score was 0-1 in favour of Montpellier, resulting in an away win. The model's selection, Montpellier to win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 53%. The model's call was spot on, as the actual result was indeed an away win. Meanwhile, the suggested picks largely came in, with "Over 21.5 fouls" hitting at 90.3% and "Under 3.5" also hitting at 82.4%, despite having a 10% edge.
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đŻ 1. Model Analysis
Nancy winâ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied 34.9% · @ 2.67
Edge
-17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.77
Pinnacle
2.76
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
Drawâ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.29
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.43
Dafabet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Montpellier winâ Hit
53.3%
Avg Implied 36.7% · @ 2.54
Edge
+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.65
10Bet
2.60
Dafabet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.59
Unibet
2.55
✠2. Goal Analysis
Nancy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.53
1.38
1.85
1.06
1.29
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.48
1.11
2.11
1.07
1.07
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.83
1.58
1.08
1.22
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
0.83
1.60
1.20
1.08
0.54
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Nancy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.2%
@ 1.30-6.8%
Under 1.5
34.8%
@ 3.34+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
888Sport
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.1%
@ 1.97-11.0%
Under 2.5
62.9%
@ 1.82+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
Bet365
2.05
10Bet
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.87
SBO
1.86
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.6%
@ 3.39-9.9%
Under 3.5
82.4%
@ 1.29+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.58
10Bet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Under
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.7%
@ 1.72-13.1%
No
59.3%
@ 2.01+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
No
1xBet
2.06
888Sport
2.05
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1 â
15.3%@ 7.88+9.6%
1-1
13.1%@ 5.89+5.6%
0-0
12.5%@ 9.04+7.6%
0-2
11.9%@ 11.50+8.1%
1-2
8.7%@ 9.11+3.8%
1-0
7.0%@ 8.15+1.5%
0-3
5.8%@ 24.88+4.0%
2-1
4.3%@ 9.43-0.4%
Nancy goals ↓
Montpellier goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
15%
12%
5.8%
2.1%
1
7.0%
13%
8.7%
4.2%
1.5%
2
3.0%
4.3%
3.1%
1.5%
0.6%
3
0.7%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nancy goals (down), columns = Montpellier goals (across).
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đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Nancy is 0.44 points worse than Montpellier in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.47).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Nancy is 0.19 goals worse than Montpellier in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.19).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Nancy is 0.61 goals worse than Montpellier in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.92).
â±ïž Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Nancy is 10.6 percentage points worse than Montpellier in terms of average possession (42% vs 52%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïž 7. Handicap
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nancy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.69
0.62
0.35
0.41
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.43
0.56
0.67
0.36
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.58
0.58
0.44
0.22
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.43
0.70
0.70
0.46
0.23
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.17
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Nancy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nancy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nancy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.69
1.23
0.71
0.88
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.65
1.04
0.56
1.44
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Montpellier) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montpellier
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.50
0.78
0.44
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.39
0.90
0.50
0.62
0.31
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Nancy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nancy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montpellier over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
82.4%
1.29
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
+9.9%
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 11.5 corners
80.2%
1.23
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
-
+6.6%
â Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.4%
1.41
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
-
+5.6%
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Nancy's squad is €16m less valuable than Montpellier's (€13m vs €29m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Nancy's attack is €6m less valuable than Montpellier's (€5m vs €11m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Nancy's midfield is €4m less valuable than Montpellier's (€2m vs €6m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Nancy's defence is €6m less valuable than Montpellier's (€6m vs €12m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saint Etienne
Reims
Rodez
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Laval
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon
Nantes