Napoli are tipped to win this Serie A clash, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Bologna victory. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.4% probability. Napoli, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Bologna, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.17 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.3%), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.1% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (95.2% with a 2% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (93.9% with a 5% edge). Napoli’s recent form shows a win-heavy run, but a recent defeat to Como, while Bologna’s recent form includes two straight losses, most recently a 0-1 loss to Atalanta.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Napoli win
54.6%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.66
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Dafabet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.70
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.82
Betfair
3.80
Betano
3.75
Dafabet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Bologna win
19.3%
Avg Implied 17.9% · @ 5.26
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.57
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Dafabet
5.40
Betano
5.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Napoli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.60
1.20
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.70
1.40
1.60
1.00
1.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.60
0.80
1.70
1.00
1.50
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bologna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
0.87
1.47
1.53
1.33
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.17
1.17
2.33
1.17
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.75
0.62
0.75
1.62
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.6%
@ 1.34+5.2%
Under 1.5
24.4%
@ 3.18-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Unibet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.14
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.7%
@ 2.08+4.0%
Under 2.5
50.3%
@ 1.75-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.11
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.7%
@ 3.70+2.4%
Under 3.5
72.3%
@ 1.26-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Both teams to score
Yes
51.2%
@ 1.99+4.6%
No
48.8%
@ 1.74-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.02
Betano
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
No
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.75
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.62+5.8%
1-0
10.9%@ 5.66+3.1%
2-0
10.3%@ 6.75+3.8%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.78+4.0%
0-0
8.1%@ 8.65+3.0%
3-0
5.9%@ 11.50+2.1%
3-1
5.6%@ 13.16+2.2%
0-1
5.4%@ 11.48+1.6%
Napoli goals ↓
Bologna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
5.4%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.3%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.7%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.9%
5.6%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.6%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Napoli goals (down), columns = Bologna goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Parma
1.18
Torino
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Napoli is 0.53 points better than Bologna in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Parma
0.74
Lecce
0.74
Napoli is 0.24 goals better than Bologna in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Fiorentina
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Napoli is 0.26 goals better than Bologna in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Napoli is 3.8 percentage points better than Bologna in terms of average possession (59% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Napoli
For 5.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.0 · Against 9.1 · Total 17.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bologna
For 4.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 14.0 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Napoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.7
8.1
3.1
2.7
3.4
23.1
23.2
22.9
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
7.0
-
7.0
vs Similar (18)
7.2
7.2
7.2
2.9
2.2
3.7
23.4
23.1
23.8
vs Weaker (31)
8.9
9.4
8.4
3.2
2.9
3.4
23.4
23.2
23.5
% over line
29%
29%
29%
36%
28%
44%
60%
62%
58%
% under line
71%
71%
71%
64%
72%
56%
40%
38%
42%
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bologna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.8
8.7
3.8
3.4
4.3
28.4
27.1
29.7
vs Stronger (16)
8.6
9.7
7.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
27.9
27.1
28.9
vs Similar (32)
9.6
10.0
9.2
4.2
3.5
4.8
28.8
27.2
30.2
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
8.0
9.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
26.0
25.0
27.0
% over line
41%
44%
38%
50%
42%
58%
86%
80%
92%
% under line
59%
56%
62%
50%
58%
42%
14%
20%
8%
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.8
Juventus
9.7
Inter
9.3
Bologna
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.4
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.0
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.4
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
22.0
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
33.0%
@ 2.33-6.2%
Under 9.5
67.0%
@ 1.50+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.33
Under
Unibet
1.50
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
44.4%
Under 3.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.1%
Under 21.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Napoli or Draw
72.2%
Avg Implied 82.2% · @ 1.14
Edge
-10.0%
55%
26%
19%
covers Napoli + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Napoli or Bologna
71.5%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.25
Edge
-3.6%
55%
26%
19%
covers Napoli + Bologna
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Draw or Bologna
56.4%
Avg Implied 42.8% · @ 2.20
Edge
+13.5%
55%
26%
19%
covers Draw + Bologna
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.25
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
1xBet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Napoli over/under 0.5
Over
76.8%
@ 1.16-3.4%
Under
23.2%
@ 4.70+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.45
Napoli over/under 1.5
Over
42.9%
@ 1.86-7.3%
Under
57.1%
@ 1.87+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betfair
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Napoli over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
@ 3.72-7.0%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.24+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.85
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.24
Napoli over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
@ 8.42-5.0%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.05+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Bologna over/under 0.5
Over
67.4%
@ 1.67+11.9%
Under
32.6%
@ 2.08-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Bologna over/under 1.5
Over
30.9%
@ 4.41+9.7%
Under
69.1%
@ 1.18-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Bologna over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
@ 12.12+2.5%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.03-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Bologna over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
@ 32.50-0.3%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Napoli, so a minus line means Napoli give that many goals of a start and Bologna receive them. At -1, Napoli must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Napoli win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Napoli)
Napoli -2
8.5%
@ 5.84-6.9%
Draw -2
13.5%
@ 4.63-5.9%
Bologna +2
78.0%
@ 1.38+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.05
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.35
Away
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Handicap -1 (Napoli)
Napoli -1
22.0%
@ 2.78-10.4%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.38-4.9%
Bologna +1
56.4%
@ 2.19+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.89
10Bet
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Draw
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Unibet
3.25
Away
Marathonbet
2.23
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Unibet
2.15
Handicap +1 (Napoli)
Napoli +1
72.2%
@ 1.15-5.2%
Draw +1
16.4%
@ 6.00+1.6%
Bologna -1
11.5%
@ 11.35+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.00
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.50
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.25
Handicap +2 (Napoli)
Napoli +2
88.5%
@ 1.02-3.4%
Draw +2
7.9%
@ 16.00+2.1%
Bologna -2
3.5%
@ 43.50+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Napoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.50
0.87
0.67
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
0.45
0.90
0.70
0.90
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bologna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.20
0.67
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.17
0.33
1.33
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.12
0.12
0.25
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.6%
@ 1.41+3.5%
Under 0.5
30.4%
@ 2.76-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.1%
@ 3.02+2.1%
Under 1.5
66.9%
@ 1.36-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.12
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.6%
@ 7.79+0.6%
Under 2.5
87.4%
@ 1.06-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.40
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Napoli over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.7%
@ 1.76+2.0%
Under
45.3%
@ 1.97-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Unibet
1.96
Betano
1.93
Napoli over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.1%
@ 4.94+1.2%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.15-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.20
Betano
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Napoli over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.9%
@ 10.50-5.0%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bologna over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.5%
@ 2.96+5.2%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.35-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.13
Marathonbet
3.02
Betano
2.95
Unibet
2.95
1xBet
2.88
Under
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Bologna over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.9%
@ 9.50-3.0%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bologna over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Napoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.10
0.60
1.00
0.20
1.20
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.35
0.80
0.30
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bologna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.67
0.80
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.26+4.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 3.60-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.65
1xBet
3.64
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.55
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.9%
@ 2.25+3.4%
Under 1.5
55.1%
@ 1.60-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
Unibet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.8%
@ 5.08+0.3%
Under 2.5
81.2%
@ 1.15-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
William Hil
5.00
10Bet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Napoli over/under 0.5 2H
Over
65.1%
@ 1.53+4.2%
Under
34.9%
@ 2.38-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.35
Napoli over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.4%
@ 3.51-3.0%
Under
76.6%
@ 1.26+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Napoli over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.1%
@ 8.70-3.5%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
Bologna over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.9%
@ 2.43+3.6%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.51-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.49
Bologna over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.0%
@ 8.85-0.5%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.04+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
8.90
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bologna over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
@ 13.00-5.4%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
Under 5.5
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+2.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+5.0%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+0.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-2.5%
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-3.4%
Under 4.5
88.0%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
+1.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-0.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.0%
1.18
Unibet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+8.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
81.9%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.24
+7.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.15
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-0.3%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.9%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-1.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+4.3%
Away +2 handicap
78.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
+12.8%
Under 10.5 corners
77.8%
1.30
Unibet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
-3.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.6%
1.26
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
-
+3.0%
Over 21.5 fouls
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.6%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+5.2%
Under 4.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.3%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-2.4%
Home or Draw
72.2%
1.14
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
-10.0%
Home +1 handicap
72.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
-5.2%
Home or Away
71.5%
1.25
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
-3.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Napoli · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Scott McTominay29%
Alisson Santos27%
Rasmus Højlund26%
Kevin De Bruyne24%
Frank Anguissa18%
Antonio Vergara17%
Romelu Lukaku14%
Lorenzo Lucca9%
David Neres9%
Amir Rrahmani8%
Leonardo Spinazzola8%
Sam Beukema6%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo6%
Billy Gilmour5%
Matteo Politano5%
Noa Lang4%
Miguel Gutiérrez3%
Stanislav Lobotka3%
Eljif Elmas2%
Alex Meret0%
Juan Jesus0%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Alessandro Buongiorno0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Mathías Olivera0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Jesus30%
Antonio Vergara17%
Noa Lang16%
Romelu Lukaku14%
David Neres13%
Amir Rrahmani12%
Matteo Politano12%
Eljif Elmas12%
Mathías Olivera9%
Alex Meret8%
Stanislav Lobotka8%
Leonardo Spinazzola8%
Alessandro Buongiorno7%
Alisson Santos7%
Sam Beukema6%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo6%
Billy Gilmour5%
Kevin De Bruyne5%
Rasmus Højlund5%
Frank Anguissa5%
Lorenzo Lucca5%
Scott McTominay2%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Miguel Gutiérrez0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Neres17%
Antonio Vergara17%
Kevin De Bruyne14%
Rasmus Højlund14%
Leonardo Spinazzola10%
Matteo Politano10%
Eljif Elmas10%
Alex Meret8%
Noa Lang8%
Giovane8%
Scott McTominay7%
Pasquale Mazzocchi6%
Frank Anguissa5%
Amir Rrahmani4%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo3%
Mathías Olivera3%
Miguel Gutiérrez3%
Vanja Milinković-Savić3%
Stanislav Lobotka3%
Alessandro Buongiorno2%
Juan Jesus0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Sam Beukema0%
Billy Gilmour0%
Lorenzo Lucca0%
Alisson Santos0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Scott McTominay36%
Alisson Santos27%
Frank Anguissa18%
Rasmus Højlund14%
Matteo Politano10%
Antonio Vergara6%
Leonardo Spinazzola5%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo3%
Alex Meret0%
Noa Lang0%
David Neres0%
Kevin De Bruyne0%
Juan Jesus0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Amir Rrahmani0%
Eljif Elmas0%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Alessandro Buongiorno0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Sam Beukema0%
Mathías Olivera0%
Stanislav Lobotka0%
Billy Gilmour0%
Miguel Gutiérrez0%
Lorenzo Lucca0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Bologna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Riccardo Orsolini27%
Santiago Castro20%
Jonathan Rowe20%
Federico Bernardeschi18%
Jens Odgaard18%
Thijs Dallinga14%
João Mário13%
Nicolò Cambiaghi10%
Giovanni Fabbian10%
Tommaso Pobega8%
Emil Holm6%
Remo Freuler2%
Jhon Lucumí2%
Nikola Moro2%
Juan Miranda2%
Lewis Ferguson2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Charalampos Lykogiannis0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
Nadir Zortea0%
Martin Vitík0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eivind Helland29%
Ibrahim Sulemana25%
Emil Holm24%
Martin Vitík23%
Juan Miranda23%
Jhon Lucumí20%
Lewis Ferguson19%
Federico Ravaglia17%
Lorenzo De Silvestri17%
Charalampos Lykogiannis17%
Remo Freuler15%
Ciro Immobile14%
Federico Bernardeschi14%
João Mário13%
Tommaso Pobega11%
Łukasz Skorupski10%
Nicolò Cambiaghi10%
Santiago Castro8%
Jonathan Rowe7%
Nadir Zortea7%
Simon Sohm6%
Riccardo Orsolini6%
Nicolò Casale6%
Thijs Dallinga6%
Benjamín Domínguez5%
Jens Odgaard5%
Torbjørn Heggem3%
Nikola Moro2%
Giovanni Fabbian0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Emil Holm29%
Benjamín Domínguez16%
Nicolò Cambiaghi15%
Jonathan Rowe10%
Nadir Zortea9%
Thijs Dallinga8%
Juan Miranda7%
Santiago Castro6%
Charalampos Lykogiannis6%
Jens Odgaard5%
Remo Freuler5%
Federico Bernardeschi5%
Tommaso Pobega3%
Jhon Lucumí2%
Nikola Moro2%
Riccardo Orsolini2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
João Mário0%
Lewis Ferguson0%
Martin Vitík0%
Giovanni Fabbian0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Riccardo Orsolini29%
Santiago Castro20%
Jens Odgaard15%
Jonathan Rowe12%
Federico Bernardeschi11%
Giovanni Fabbian10%
Tommaso Pobega8%
Thijs Dallinga8%
Nikola Moro2%
Juan Miranda2%
Lewis Ferguson2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Jhon Lucumí0%
Remo Freuler0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Nicolò Cambiaghi0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Charalampos Lykogiannis0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Nadir Zortea0%
Martin Vitík0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Napoli's squad is €241m more valuable than Bologna's (€459m vs €218m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Napoli's attack is €102m more valuable than Bologna's (€206m vs €104m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Napoli's midfield is €67m more valuable than Bologna's (€101m vs €34m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Napoli's defence is €73m more valuable than Bologna's (€152m vs €79m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina