Napoli are the clear favourites to win, with a 44% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of a Como victory. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 13.7% probability. Napoli, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.78 goals scored and 0.89 conceded, while Como, away against a stronger opponent, average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (96.9% with a 3% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.6% with a 3% edge). Napoli have been on a three-game winning run, recently beating Genoa 2-0, while Como remain unbeaten in five matches, most recently drawing 1-1 with Udinese.
Results analysis
Napoli’s return to the San Paolo was a shock, as the pre-match favourite, a home win at 44 percent, failed to materialise. The final score was 1-2, giving Como an away win. The model’s call was wrong, but its other selections proved remarkably accurate. Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.7 percent, Under 6.5 at 99.0 percent, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4 percent, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.8 percent, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4 percent, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.3 percent, Under 5.5 at 96.9 percent and Home under 3.5 goals at 96.6 percent all landed. Napoli’s recent form, a win-win-win-win-loss streak, had been promising, yet Como’s unbeaten run of five kept the under-goals narrative alive.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Napoli win✗ Miss
44.4%
Avg Implied 37.5% · @ 2.53
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
Marathonbet
2.56
SBO
2.56
Superbet
2.55
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 3.01
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.12
Dafabet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.05
10Bet
3.05
Como win✓ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 3.07
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.18
Superbet
3.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Napoli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.03
1.64
1.14
1.31
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.55
1.40
1.60
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.63
0.74
1.78
0.89
1.50
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Como) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Como
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.80
1.86
0.86
1.75
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.60
1.50
2.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (18)
1.56
0.78
1.50
0.70
1.62
0.88
vs Weaker (7)
3.00
0.29
4.00
0.50
2.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.7%
@ 1.40+7.2%
Under 1.5
25.3%
@ 2.90-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.09
Betano
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Unibet
2.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.5%
@ 2.24+5.9%
Under 2.5
51.5%
@ 1.66-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.32
Unibet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.26
SBO
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
SBO
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.7%
@ 4.09+3.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
@ 1.22-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.5%
@ 1.86+3.1%
No
46.5%
@ 1.89-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
No
Betano
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.91
BetVictor
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.53+5.3%
1-0
9.7%@ 6.98+3.2%
2-1
9.1%@ 9.11+4.2%
0-0
8.6%@ 7.59+2.6%
2-0
8.1%@ 11.08+4.0%
0-1
7.0%@ 7.91+1.3%
1-2 ✓
6.9%@ 10.30+2.5%
2-2
5.1%@ 13.49+1.8%
Napoli goals ↓
Como goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
7.0%
4.6%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.7%
13%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.1%
9.1%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
4.0%
4.5%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.7%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Napoli goals (down), columns = Como goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Napoli is 0.13 points better than Como in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Napoli is 0.18 goals worse than Como in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Napoli is 0.18 goals worse than Como in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 0.76).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Napoli is 2.7 percentage points worse than Como in terms of average possession (59% vs 62%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Napoli
For 5.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.7 · Against 9.8 · Total 18.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Como
For 6.0 · Against 2.9 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Napoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.8
8.0
3.2
2.9
3.6
23.5
23.9
23.2
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
7.0
-
7.0
vs Similar (16)
7.2
7.2
7.2
3.3
2.5
4.1
23.4
23.1
23.8
vs Weaker (33)
8.8
9.5
8.2
3.2
3.1
3.4
24.1
24.2
23.9
% over line
30%
32%
28%
38%
28%
48%
64%
68%
60%
% under line
70%
68%
72%
62%
72%
52%
36%
32%
40%
This opponent (Como) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Como
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.8
7.1
8.4
4.6
4.6
4.6
26.3
25.2
27.4
vs Stronger (7)
6.1
4.2
8.7
4.3
5.2
3.0
25.9
24.0
28.3
vs Similar (29)
8.1
8.1
8.1
4.5
4.4
4.6
25.7
24.2
27.1
vs Weaker (14)
7.9
6.7
9.1
5.0
4.6
5.4
27.8
27.7
27.9
% over line
28%
16%
40%
68%
68%
68%
82%
72%
92%
% under line
72%
84%
60%
32%
32%
32%
18%
28%
8%
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Atalanta
9.3
Inter
9.3
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Cagliari
8.8
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Genoa
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.4
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.1
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.5
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.2
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Monza
27.0
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
25.0
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.5
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
35.9%
@ 2.47-1.6%
Under 9.5
64.1%
@ 1.48+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.54
Unibet
2.50
1xBet
2.45
Under
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.45
Betfair
1.45
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.8%
@ 1.57-7.4%
Under 3.5
48.2%
@ 2.29+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.43
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.27
Unibet
2.12
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
71.4%
@ 1.46+7.9%
Under 21.5
28.6%
@ 2.52-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.33
Under
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.20
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Napoli or Draw✗ Miss
67.6%
Avg Implied 68.9% · @ 1.37
Edge
-1.3%
44%
28%
27%
covers Napoli + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
William Hil
1.36
Napoli or Como✓ Hit
69.2%
Avg Implied 68.9% · @ 1.37
Edge
+0.3%
44%
28%
27%
covers Napoli + Como
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Draw or Como✓ Hit
63.2%
Avg Implied 62.3% · @ 1.51
Edge
+1.0%
44%
28%
27%
covers Draw + Como
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Unibet
1.53
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Napoli over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.0%
@ 1.32-0.8%
Under
30.0%
@ 3.19+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.39
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Napoli over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.9%
@ 2.58-2.4%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.47+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Napoli over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 6.22-2.9%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.10+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Unibet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Napoli over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 15.08-2.9%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Como over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.2%
@ 1.40+0.5%
Under
32.8%
@ 2.80-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.99
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
Superbet
2.80
1xBet
2.76
Como over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.6%
@ 2.96-0.9%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.36+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.14
Marathonbet
3.06
Unibet
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Como over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 7.54-2.1%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.06+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Marathonbet
8.20
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.20
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Como over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 17.25-2.9%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Napoli, so a minus line means Napoli give that many goals of a start and Como receive them. At -1, Napoli must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Napoli win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Napoli)Actual: Como
Napoli -2
5.4%
@ 11.29-2.5%
Draw -2
10.9%
@ 6.71-2.4%
Como +2
83.7%
@ 1.13+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
11.00
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Away
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (Napoli)Actual: Como
Napoli -1
16.3%
@ 5.20-1.1%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 4.01-2.1%
Como +1
63.2%
@ 1.51+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
10Bet
3.85
Unibet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Unibet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Handicap +1 (Napoli)Actual: Draw
Napoli +1
67.6%
@ 1.36+0.9%
Draw +1
18.9%
@ 4.55-1.1%
Como -1
13.5%
@ 6.77+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Draw
Superbet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Unibet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Away
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Handicap +2 (Napoli)Actual: Napoli
Napoli +2
86.5%
@ 1.08+2.2%
Draw +2
9.3%
@ 8.75-1.1%
Como -2
4.2%
@ 17.00-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Away
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Napoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.43
0.86
0.57
0.88
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
0.80
0.60
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.37
0.89
0.56
0.90
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Como) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Como
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.86
0.36
0.62
0.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.39
0.50
0.30
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.14
2.50
0.50
0.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.5%
@ 1.48+5.9%
Under 0.5
30.5%
@ 2.58-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
SBO
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.67
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.5%
@ 3.21+4.2%
Under 1.5
66.5%
@ 1.33-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Under
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.4%
@ 8.56+0.5%
Under 2.5
88.6%
@ 1.05-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.60
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Napoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.5%
@ 2.16+3.4%
Under
53.5%
@ 1.64-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Unibet
2.18
Superbet
2.12
Under
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.59
Napoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 7.02-0.9%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.06+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Napoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 17.50-3.3%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Como over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.6%
@ 2.36+0.1%
Under
60.4%
@ 1.54-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Unibet
2.40
Superbet
2.32
Under
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Como over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.8%
@ 8.25-1.4%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.04+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Marathonbet
9.60
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
7.80
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Como over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 21.50-2.9%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Napoli
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.79
0.57
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.17
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.37
0.89
0.33
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Como) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Como
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.00
0.50
1.12
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.50
1.50
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.39
1.00
0.40
0.88
0.38
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.14
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.30+6.3%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 3.35-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.45
Unibet
3.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.1%
@ 2.36+3.5%
Under 1.5
56.9%
@ 1.54-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.42
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.1%
@ 5.48-1.9%
Under 2.5
84.9%
@ 1.12+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.65
William Hil
5.50
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Under
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Napoli over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.0%
@ 1.83+8.5%
Under
41.0%
@ 1.88-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Napoli over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.6%
@ 5.21+2.8%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.13-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.10
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Napoli over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 13.38-2.0%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.02+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Como over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.3%
@ 1.96-5.0%
Under
57.7%
@ 1.76+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
Como over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 6.00-4.1%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.10+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.75
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Como over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 15.38-3.6%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.04
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
89.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.05
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
-0.5%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
87.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
BetVictor
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.06
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
1xBet
1.11
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.1%
1.15
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.18
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
83.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.2%
1.31
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.29
-
-
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.30
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
75.3%
1.27
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
1xBet
1.22
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.7%
1.40
BetVictor
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.3%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.4%
1.27
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.21
-
-
-0.6%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
71.4%
1.46
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
+7.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Napoli · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Scott McTominay29%
Alisson Santos27%
Rasmus Højlund26%
Kevin De Bruyne24%
Frank Anguissa18%
Antonio Vergara17%
Romelu Lukaku14%
Lorenzo Lucca9%
David Neres9%
Amir Rrahmani8%
Leonardo Spinazzola8%
Sam Beukema6%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo6%
Billy Gilmour5%
Matteo Politano5%
Noa Lang4%
Miguel Gutiérrez3%
Stanislav Lobotka3%
Eljif Elmas2%
Alex Meret0%
Juan Jesus0%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Alessandro Buongiorno0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Mathías Olivera0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Juan Jesus30%
Antonio Vergara17%
Noa Lang16%
Romelu Lukaku14%
David Neres13%
Amir Rrahmani12%
Matteo Politano12%
Eljif Elmas12%
Mathías Olivera9%
Alex Meret8%
Stanislav Lobotka8%
Leonardo Spinazzola8%
Alessandro Buongiorno7%
Alisson Santos7%
Sam Beukema6%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo6%
Billy Gilmour5%
Kevin De Bruyne5%
Rasmus Højlund5%
Frank Anguissa5%
Lorenzo Lucca5%
Scott McTominay2%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Miguel Gutiérrez0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Neres17%
Antonio Vergara17%
Kevin De Bruyne14%
Rasmus Højlund14%
Leonardo Spinazzola10%
Matteo Politano10%
Eljif Elmas10%
Alex Meret8%
Noa Lang8%
Giovane8%
Scott McTominay7%
Pasquale Mazzocchi6%
Frank Anguissa5%
Amir Rrahmani4%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo3%
Mathías Olivera3%
Miguel Gutiérrez3%
Vanja Milinković-Savić3%
Stanislav Lobotka3%
Alessandro Buongiorno2%
Juan Jesus0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Sam Beukema0%
Billy Gilmour0%
Lorenzo Lucca0%
Alisson Santos0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Scott McTominay36%
Alisson Santos27%
Frank Anguissa18%
Rasmus Højlund14%
Matteo Politano10%
Antonio Vergara6%
Leonardo Spinazzola5%
Giovanni Di Lorenzo3%
Alex Meret0%
Noa Lang0%
David Neres0%
Kevin De Bruyne0%
Juan Jesus0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Amir Rrahmani0%
Eljif Elmas0%
Vanja Milinković-Savić0%
Alessandro Buongiorno0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Sam Beukema0%
Mathías Olivera0%
Stanislav Lobotka0%
Billy Gilmour0%
Miguel Gutiérrez0%
Lorenzo Lucca0%
Giovane0%
Giuseppe Ambrosino0%
Como · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anastasios Douvikas32%
Nico Paz30%
Martin Baturina24%
Lucas Da Cunha17%
Jayden Addai12%
Marc-Oliver Kempf11%
Assane Diao10%
Alberto Moreno9%
Jesús Rodriguez8%
Máximo Perrone7%
Stefan Posch7%
Mërgim Vojvoda6%
Maxence Caqueret6%
Jacobo Ramón5%
Sergi Roberto4%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn4%
Álvaro Morata3%
Diego Carlos3%
Álex Valle3%
Jean Butez0%
Ivan Smolčić0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Ignace Van der Brempt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacobo Ramón32%
Diego Carlos29%
Ivan Smolčić25%
Jayden Addai25%
Máximo Perrone22%
Sergi Roberto21%
Alberto Moreno17%
Nico Paz15%
Álvaro Morata13%
Ignace Van der Brempt13%
Assane Diao10%
Álex Valle10%
Lucas Da Cunha10%
Maxence Caqueret8%
Jesús Rodriguez8%
Marc-Oliver Kempf8%
Jean Butez7%
Stefan Posch7%
Mërgim Vojvoda6%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn4%
Martin Baturina3%
Anastasios Douvikas0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jesús Rodriguez25%
Maxence Caqueret19%
Nico Paz15%
Álex Valle13%
Martin Baturina12%
Lucas Da Cunha10%
Ignace Van der Brempt9%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn8%
Máximo Perrone7%
Mërgim Vojvoda6%
Assane Diao5%
Anastasios Douvikas5%
Alberto Moreno4%
Álvaro Morata3%
Diego Carlos3%
Ivan Smolčić3%
Marc-Oliver Kempf3%
Jean Butez2%
Sergi Roberto0%
Stefan Posch0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Jayden Addai0%
Jacobo Ramón0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nico Paz45%
Anastasios Douvikas16%
Assane Diao10%
Jesús Rodriguez8%
Jacobo Ramón8%
Stefan Posch7%
Jayden Addai6%
Sergi Roberto4%
Álvaro Morata3%
Mërgim Vojvoda3%
Martin Baturina3%
Marc-Oliver Kempf3%
Alberto Moreno0%
Maxence Caqueret0%
Jean Butez0%
Ivan Smolčić0%
Diego Carlos0%
Edoardo Goldaniga0%
Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn0%
Ignace Van der Brempt0%
Lucas Da Cunha0%
Máximo Perrone0%
Álex Valle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Napoli's squad is €29m less valuable than Como's (€459m vs €488m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Napoli's attack is €55m less valuable than Como's (€206m vs €261m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Napoli's midfield is €18m more valuable than Como's (€101m vs €83m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Napoli's defence is €8m more valuable than Como's (€152m vs €144m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Frosinone
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina