Pythia gives Napoli a 49% win probability against Udinese in the Italy: Serie A on 2026-05-24, with 27% for the draw and 25% for Udinese. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.7%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 5.5 cards (88%), Over 19.5 fouls (80%), Under 11.5 corners (78%), Over 1.5 (78%).
Results analysis
Napoli finished 1-0 against Udinese (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 49% home win, 27% draw and 25% away win. Picks that landed: Under 5.5 cards (88%), Under 11.5 corners (78%), Under 4.5 cards (75%). Missed: Over 19.5 fouls (80%), Over 1.5 (78%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Napoli win✓ Hit
48.8%
Avg Implied 63.3% · @ 1.47
Edge
-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 4.07
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Udinese win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 13.8% · @ 6.72
Edge
+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Napoli
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.07
1.80
1.13
1.27
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.60
2.00
1.40
0.80
1.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.60
0.80
1.70
1.00
1.50
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Udinese) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Udinese
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.23
1.00
1.00
1.57
1.50
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
1.27
0.88
0.38
1.43
2.29
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.20
1.12
1.62
1.71
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.8%
@ 1.87+2.9%
Under 2.5
47.2%
@ 1.86-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.9%
No
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.6%
1-0 ✓
9.1%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
7.3%
1-2
6.5%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
Napoli goals ↓
Udinese goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
5.8%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.1%
13%
6.5%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.6%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.7%
5.3%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.0%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Napoli goals (down), columns = Udinese goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Lecce
1.00
Cremonese
0.89
Hellas Verona
0.55
Pisa
0.47
Napoli is 0.68 points better than Udinese in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Cremonese
0.84
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Pisa
0.68
Hellas Verona
0.66
Napoli is 0.34 goals better than Udinese in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
Inter
0.92
AC Milan
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Bologna
1.21
Parma
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Cremonese
1.50
Hellas Verona
1.61
Torino
1.66
Pisa
1.87
Napoli is 0.32 goals better than Udinese in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Cremonese
46%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Pisa
40%
Hellas Verona
40%
Napoli is 13.2 percentage points better than Udinese in terms of average possession (59% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Napoli
For 7.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 9.6 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Udinese
For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Napoli
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.8
8.0
3.2
2.8
3.6
23.6
24.0
23.2
vs Stronger (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
7.0
-
7.0
vs Similar (14)
6.9
6.6
7.1
2.9
2.3
3.4
23.7
23.6
23.9
vs Weaker (35)
8.9
9.7
8.2
3.4
3.1
3.8
24.0
24.1
23.9
% over line
30%
32%
28%
36%
24%
48%
64%
68%
60%
% under line
70%
68%
72%
64%
76%
52%
36%
32%
40%
This opponent (Udinese) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Udinese
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.2
3.8
3.9
3.6
25.2
26.5
24.0
vs Stronger (22)
9.1
8.4
9.8
4.0
4.2
3.7
24.2
25.3
23.1
vs Similar (28)
10.1
9.7
10.5
3.6
3.7
3.5
26.1
27.4
24.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
44%
48%
54%
60%
48%
78%
80%
76%
% under line
54%
56%
52%
46%
40%
52%
22%
20%
24%
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lecce
10.1
Udinese
9.7
Juventus
9.6
Bologna
9.4
Atalanta
9.3
Inter
9.2
Cremonese
9.1
Sassuolo
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Cagliari
8.8
Parma
8.8
Genoa
8.8
AC Milan
8.7
AS Roma
8.7
Lazio
8.6
Hellas Verona
8.6
Torino
8.6
Napoli
8.4
Pisa
8.3
Como
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.8
Como
4.6
Genoa
4.5
Sassuolo
4.4
AS Roma
4.2
Hellas Verona
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Bologna
4.0
Pisa
4.0
Lecce
3.9
Parma
3.8
Cagliari
3.8
Juventus
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.8
Atalanta
3.6
Torino
3.5
Napoli
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bologna
28.4
Cremonese
28.4
AS Roma
28.4
Fiorentina
28.1
Cagliari
27.8
Genoa
27.7
Como
26.4
Hellas Verona
25.9
Lecce
25.7
Udinese
25.2
Pisa
25.2
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.7
Torino
24.6
Parma
24.5
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.6
Juventus
23.2
AC Milan
22.0
Atalanta
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
44.1%
Under 9.5
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
65.6%
Under 21.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Napoli
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
0.93
0.53
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.40
0.40
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
0.40
0.70
0.60
1.10
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Udinese) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Udinese
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.50
0.31
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.53
0.25
0.25
0.71
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.33
0.75
0.38
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Napoli) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Napoli over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Napoli over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Udinese over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Udinese over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Udinese over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (29)
€480m
NAP (35)
€458m
ATA (34)
€452m
COM (31)
€397m
BOL (36)
€279m
LAZ (30)
€236m
SAS (43)
€212m
FIO (33)
€203m
CAG (43)
€196m
UDI (29)
€180m
GEN (38)
€174m
PAR (34)
€149m
TOR (33)
€124m
LEC (30)
€118m
PIS (38)
€104m
CRE (35)
€76m
HV (37)
€65m
Napoli's squad is €277m more valuable than Udinese's (€458m vs €180m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (10)
€236m
NAP (12)
€214m
JUV (9)
€210m
ATA (10)
€163m
BOL (12)
€136m
LAZ (10)
€78m
SAS (13)
€78m
GEN (14)
€70m
LEC (10)
€66m
CAG (12)
€62m
FIO (8)
€55m
UDI (7)
€41m
PIS (13)
€40m
TOR (10)
€40m
PAR (10)
€36m
CRE (12)
€21m
HV (8)
€18m
Napoli's attack is €173m more valuable than Udinese's (€214m vs €41m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ATA (11)
€141m
JUV (6)
€124m
NAP (7)
€90m
COM (5)
€79m
LAZ (7)
€69m
FIO (8)
€64m
UDI (9)
€64m
SAS (9)
€57m
TOR (10)
€54m
PAR (7)
€47m
PIS (12)
€42m
BOL (6)
€40m
CAG (13)
€37m
GEN (7)
€30m
CRE (10)
€25m
HV (11)
€18m
LEC (9)
€16m
Napoli's midfield is €26m more valuable than Udinese's (€90m vs €64m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (16)
€153m
ATA (13)
€148m
JUV (14)
€146m
BOL (18)
€103m
CAG (18)
€97m
LAZ (13)
€88m
FIO (17)
€84m
COM (16)
€81m
SAS (21)
€77m
UDI (13)
€76m
GEN (17)
€74m
PAR (17)
€66m
LEC (11)
€36m
TOR (13)
€31m
CRE (13)
€30m
HV (18)
€29m
PIS (13)
€22m
Napoli's defence is €78m more valuable than Udinese's (€153m vs €76m).
Italy: Serie A 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →