This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.40
0.73
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
1.27
0.77
1.55
0.91
1.00
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.2%
@ 2.04+2.9%
Under 2.5
50.8%
@ 1.76-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
8.7%
1-2
8.6%
0-0
8.4%
2-1
7.7%
1-0
7.6%
0-2 ✓
6.9%
2-0
5.5%
Newport County goals ↓
Colchester goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
8.7%
6.9%
3.2%
1.1%
1
7.6%
14%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.5%
7.7%
5.4%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.3%
3.2%
2.2%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newport County goals (down), columns = Colchester goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Doncaster
1.83
Port Vale
1.74
Bradford
1.70
Walsall
1.67
AFC Wimbledon
1.59
Notts County
1.57
Chesterfield
1.52
Salford
1.50
Grimsby
1.48
Colchester
1.46
Bromley
1.43
Swindon
1.35
Crewe
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
Barrow
1.28
Gillingham
1.26
Harrogate
1.15
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Tranmere
1.11
Accrington
1.09
Newport County
1.07
Carlisle
0.91
Morecambe
0.78
Newport County is 0.39 points worse than Colchester in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Walsall
1.63
Doncaster
1.59
Chesterfield
1.59
Swindon
1.54
Notts County
1.48
Port Vale
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Bradford
1.39
Salford
1.39
Grimsby
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Accrington
1.15
Colchester
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Newport County
1.13
Barrow
1.13
Crewe
1.07
Tranmere
0.98
Carlisle
0.96
Harrogate
0.93
Gillingham
0.89
Morecambe
0.87
Newport County and Colchester are level in goals scored per game (both 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AFC Wimbledon
0.76
Bradford
0.98
Port Vale
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Colchester
1.02
Crewe
1.04
Notts County
1.07
Doncaster
1.09
Barrow
1.09
Walsall
1.17
Salford
1.17
Chesterfield
1.17
Bromley
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Harrogate
1.33
Swindon
1.37
Tranmere
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Grimsby
1.46
Accrington
1.50
Cheltenham
1.52
Carlisle
1.54
Morecambe
1.57
Newport County
1.65
Newport County is 0.63 goals worse than Colchester in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
62%
Chesterfield
61%
Milton Keynes Dons
60%
Carlisle
53%
Swindon
52%
Salford
52%
Doncaster
52%
Tranmere
52%
Colchester
51%
Port Vale
51%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
AFC Wimbledon
49%
Gillingham
49%
Grimsby
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Barrow
47%
Newport County
47%
Cheltenham
45%
Morecambe
45%
Accrington
45%
Walsall
44%
Harrogate
43%
Bromley
42%
Newport County is 4.2 percentage points worse than Colchester in terms of average possession (47% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Newport County
For 3.6 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.9 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Colchester
For 3.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.7
10.0
3.6
3.9
3.3
22.9
23.0
22.7
vs Stronger (10)
10.0
10.8
9.2
2.7
3.2
2.2
21.4
21.5
21.2
vs Similar (36)
9.6
8.9
10.3
3.8
4.2
3.3
23.2
23.5
22.9
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
14.5
9.5
4.8
3.5
6.0
22.5
22.0
23.0
% over line
54%
54%
54%
56%
56%
56%
65%
62%
67%
% under line
46%
46%
46%
44%
44%
44%
35%
38%
33%
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.9
9.5
4.2
4.4
4.0
24.3
25.1
23.5
vs Stronger (11)
9.7
8.4
11.0
3.8
4.2
3.4
22.8
25.2
20.4
vs Similar (35)
8.9
8.7
9.3
4.3
4.3
4.2
24.5
24.9
24.1
vs Weaker (4)
9.8
12.5
7.0
4.8
5.5
4.0
26.5
26.5
26.5
% over line
40%
36%
45%
74%
74%
74%
74%
80%
68%
% under line
60%
64%
55%
26%
26%
26%
26%
20%
32%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Doncaster
10.7
Morecambe
10.6
Harrogate
10.5
Bromley
10.3
Carlisle
10.3
Chesterfield
10.0
Port Vale
9.9
Walsall
9.8
Fleetwood Town
9.8
Newport County
9.8
Notts County
9.8
Swindon
9.8
Tranmere
9.8
Crewe
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Barrow
9.7
Grimsby
9.6
Colchester
9.2
Bradford
9.2
Accrington
9.0
AFC Wimbledon
8.8
Salford
8.8
Milton Keynes Dons
8.7
Gillingham
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Accrington
4.7
Bradford
4.7
Gillingham
4.5
Colchester
4.4
Salford
4.4
Grimsby
4.4
Crewe
4.3
Carlisle
4.3
Chesterfield
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
Barrow
4.1
Doncaster
4.1
AFC Wimbledon
4.0
Notts County
4.0
Morecambe
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Port Vale
3.8
Walsall
3.8
Newport County
3.8
Bromley
3.8
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Cheltenham
3.6
Swindon
3.3
Harrogate
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
25.2
Grimsby
25.0
Cheltenham
24.8
Salford
24.7
Morecambe
24.6
Bradford
24.6
Colchester
24.3
Gillingham
23.8
Doncaster
23.7
Crewe
23.6
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
23.2
Newport County
22.9
Carlisle
22.3
Tranmere
22.3
Barrow
22.1
Port Vale
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Fleetwood Town
22.0
Harrogate
21.9
Walsall
21.5
Swindon
21.2
Bromley
20.9
Notts County
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.0%
Under 9.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.8%
Under 3.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.3%
Under 21.5
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
0.93
0.33
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.83
1.50
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.62
0.78
0.22
0.67
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.30
0.47
0.27
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.23
0.55
0.27
0.45
0.18
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.97
0.47
0.93
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.95
0.33
0.78
0.42
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.93
0.47
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.55
1.00
0.64
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newport County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
Harrison Biggins33%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
Ciaran Brennan33%
Harrison Biggins0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Harrison Biggins33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
Alfie Merritt33%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harrison Biggins33%
Christian Doidge0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Colchester · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Harry Anderson33%
Kane Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
Sean Raggett0%
Jack Tucker0%
Jack Payne0%
Thimothee Lo-Tutala0%
Oscar Thorn0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kane Vincent-Young33%
Ellis Iandolo33%
Rob Hunt33%
Harry Anderson0%
Sean Raggett0%
Jack Tucker0%
Jack Payne0%
Thimothee Lo-Tutala0%
Oscar Thorn0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kane Vincent-Young33%
Oscar Thorn33%
Harry Anderson0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
Sean Raggett0%
Jack Tucker0%
Jack Payne0%
Thimothee Lo-Tutala0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Anderson67%
Kane Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
Sean Raggett0%
Jack Tucker0%
Jack Payne0%
Thimothee Lo-Tutala0%
Oscar Thorn0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (24)
€15m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Newport County's squad is €2m less valuable than Colchester's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (8)
€5m
BRA (9)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Newport County's attack is €1m less valuable than Colchester's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€7m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Newport County and Colchester have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Newport County and Colchester have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Doncaster
Port Vale
Bradford
Walsall
AFC Wimbledon
Notts County
Chesterfield
Salford
Grimsby
Bromley
Swindon
Crewe
Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham
Barrow
Gillingham
Harrogate
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
Accrington
Carlisle
Morecambe