This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.13
1.73
1.07
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
4.00
1.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.36
1.25
1.42
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.3%
@ 1.83-2.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
@ 1.95+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-0 ✓
8.3%
2-1
8.3%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
8.1%
0-1
8.1%
2-0
6.3%
0-2
6.1%
Newport County goals ↓
Grimsby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
8.1%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.2%
14%
8.1%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.3%
5.4%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.8%
3.7%
2.4%
1.1%
0.3%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newport County goals (down), columns = Grimsby goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Doncaster
1.83
Port Vale
1.74
Bradford
1.70
Walsall
1.67
AFC Wimbledon
1.59
Notts County
1.57
Chesterfield
1.52
Salford
1.50
Grimsby
1.48
Colchester
1.46
Bromley
1.43
Swindon
1.35
Crewe
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
Barrow
1.28
Gillingham
1.26
Harrogate
1.15
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Tranmere
1.11
Accrington
1.09
Newport County
1.07
Carlisle
0.91
Morecambe
0.78
Newport County is 0.41 points worse than Grimsby in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Walsall
1.63
Doncaster
1.59
Chesterfield
1.59
Swindon
1.54
Notts County
1.48
Port Vale
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Bradford
1.39
Salford
1.39
Grimsby
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Cheltenham
1.30
AFC Wimbledon
1.22
Accrington
1.15
Colchester
1.13
Milton Keynes Dons
1.13
Newport County
1.13
Barrow
1.13
Crewe
1.07
Tranmere
0.98
Carlisle
0.96
Harrogate
0.93
Gillingham
0.89
Morecambe
0.87
Newport County is 0.20 goals worse than Grimsby in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
AFC Wimbledon
0.76
Bradford
0.98
Port Vale
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Colchester
1.02
Crewe
1.04
Notts County
1.07
Doncaster
1.09
Barrow
1.09
Walsall
1.17
Salford
1.17
Chesterfield
1.17
Bromley
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.30
Harrogate
1.33
Swindon
1.37
Tranmere
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Grimsby
1.46
Accrington
1.50
Cheltenham
1.52
Carlisle
1.54
Morecambe
1.57
Newport County
1.65
Newport County is 0.20 goals worse than Grimsby in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
62%
Chesterfield
61%
Milton Keynes Dons
60%
Carlisle
53%
Swindon
52%
Salford
52%
Doncaster
52%
Tranmere
52%
Colchester
51%
Port Vale
51%
Bradford
51%
Crewe
50%
AFC Wimbledon
49%
Gillingham
49%
Grimsby
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Barrow
47%
Newport County
47%
Cheltenham
45%
Morecambe
45%
Accrington
45%
Walsall
44%
Harrogate
43%
Bromley
42%
Newport County is 1.8 percentage points worse than Grimsby in terms of average possession (47% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Newport County
For 3.0 · Against 5.6 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grimsby
For 3.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 13.1 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.6
3.5
3.8
3.2
22.4
22.7
22.1
vs Stronger (13)
10.1
10.2
10.0
2.9
3.3
2.6
21.1
23.2
19.3
vs Similar (33)
9.3
9.5
9.1
3.7
4.0
3.4
23.1
22.6
23.6
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
13.0
11.7
3.8
4.0
3.7
19.5
20.0
19.3
% over line
52%
57%
48%
56%
58%
54%
58%
61%
56%
% under line
48%
43%
52%
44%
42%
46%
42%
39%
44%
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.0
11.3
3.6
3.5
3.8
23.4
24.1
22.8
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
10.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
vs Similar (39)
10.3
9.3
11.2
3.9
4.0
3.9
23.9
25.2
22.6
vs Weaker (8)
12.6
13.7
11.8
2.2
1.5
3.0
21.0
17.3
23.8
% over line
62%
52%
71%
52%
54%
50%
60%
61%
58%
% under line
38%
48%
29%
48%
46%
50%
40%
39%
42%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fleetwood Town
11.3
Tranmere
11.1
Bromley
10.9
Harrogate
10.9
Port Vale
10.9
Notts County
10.8
Morecambe
10.7
Doncaster
10.6
Grimsby
10.4
Swindon
10.3
Walsall
10.3
Bradford
10.3
Crewe
10.2
Accrington
10.1
Chesterfield
10.0
Colchester
9.9
Salford
9.8
Cheltenham
9.8
Carlisle
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Gillingham
9.5
Barrow
9.4
AFC Wimbledon
9.1
Milton Keynes Dons
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Salford
4.6
Bradford
4.5
Colchester
4.4
AFC Wimbledon
4.4
Crewe
4.4
Barrow
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
Notts County
4.3
Doncaster
4.2
Cheltenham
4.2
Gillingham
4.2
Port Vale
4.2
Milton Keynes Dons
4.1
Morecambe
4.1
Fleetwood Town
4.0
Chesterfield
3.9
Accrington
3.9
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Newport County
3.6
Carlisle
3.6
Swindon
3.3
Harrogate
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cheltenham
24.8
Accrington
24.7
Grimsby
23.8
Salford
23.7
AFC Wimbledon
23.6
Chesterfield
23.5
Doncaster
23.4
Bradford
23.3
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
Bromley
23.1
Barrow
22.8
Crewe
22.5
Newport County
22.4
Colchester
22.2
Morecambe
22.0
Fleetwood Town
21.7
Walsall
21.5
Gillingham
21.3
Port Vale
20.9
Carlisle
20.7
Swindon
20.6
Tranmere
20.3
Notts County
20.3
Harrogate
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.0%
Under 9.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
65.5%
Under 3.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.4%
Under 21.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.79
0.86
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.91
0.64
0.82
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.53
0.53
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.72
0.58
0.42
0.54
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.00
0.71
1.21
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.73
0.64
0.91
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.60
1.20
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.50
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.64
0.67
1.00
0.38
0.31
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grimsby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newport County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
Harrison Biggins33%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
Ciaran Brennan33%
Harrison Biggins0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Harrison Biggins33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
Alfie Merritt33%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harrison Biggins33%
Christian Doidge0%
Cameron Norman0%
Lee Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
Jordan Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
Cameron Evans0%
Dan Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Grimsby · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Harvey Rodgers33%
Andy Cook33%
Cian Doyle33%
Christy Pym0%
Charles Vernam0%
Jayden Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
Kieran Green0%
Géza Dávid Turi0%
Cameron McJannett0%
Maldini Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jayden Sweeney33%
Harvey Rodgers33%
Maldini Kacurri33%
Christy Pym0%
Charles Vernam0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
Andy Cook0%
Kieran Green0%
Géza Dávid Turi0%
Cameron McJannett0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Géza Dávid Turi67%
Kieran Green33%
Christy Pym0%
Charles Vernam0%
Jayden Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
Harvey Rodgers0%
Andy Cook0%
Cameron McJannett0%
Maldini Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Cook33%
Christy Pym0%
Charles Vernam0%
Jayden Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
Harvey Rodgers0%
Kieran Green0%
Géza Dávid Turi0%
Cameron McJannett0%
Maldini Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (24)
€15m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Newport County's squad is €2m less valuable than Grimsby's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (8)
€5m
BRA (9)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Newport County and Grimsby have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€7m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Newport County and Grimsby have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Newport County and Grimsby have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Doncaster
Port Vale
Bradford
Walsall
AFC Wimbledon
Notts County
Chesterfield
Salford
Colchester
Bromley
Swindon
Crewe
Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham
Barrow
Gillingham
Harrogate
Milton Keynes Dons
Tranmere
Accrington
Carlisle
Morecambe