Newport County face Tranmere in a tightly contested League Two fixture, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 41% for Newport, 27% for a draw and 32% for Tranmere. The expected goal tally sits at 2.9, but the most likely total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. Newport’s home form shows they average one goal scored and 1.31 conceded against similar opposition, while Tranmere’s away record is 1.25 scored and 1.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 2% edge), Under 6.5 (97.1% no edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.1% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.7% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.1% with a 2% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (92.8% no edge). Newport’s recent form is LWWWL after a 3-5 loss to Bristol Rovers, while Tranmere are coming off a 1-1 draw with Port Vale.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Newport County, failed to materialise as the match finished 2-2, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The game saw both sides score twice, echoing their recent form: Newport’s last five ended with a draw, while Tranmere remained unbeaten in five outings. The model’s selection for a home win, with a 41% probability, was incorrect. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 (99%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%) hit, Under 6.5 (97.1%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (95.2%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.1%) hit, and Home under 3.5 goals (92.8%) hit. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely outcome, but the predicted winner was wrong.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Newport County win✗ Miss
40.9%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.57
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.65
10Bet
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.63
BetVictor
2.60
Draw✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied 29.5% · @ 3.14
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Dafabet
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Tranmere win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied 34.4% · @ 2.70
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.87
1xBet
2.76
Marathonbet
2.76
William Hil
2.75
Dafabet
2.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Newport County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.60
1.20
1.20
1.13
2.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
1.65
1.00
1.31
1.23
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tranmere
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.83
0.81
1.75
0.93
1.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.00
-
-
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.88
1.69
0.73
1.73
1.09
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
@ 1.35+10.6%
Under 1.5
20.3%
@ 3.01-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Unibet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.14
Superbet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.4%
@ 2.10+10.6%
Under 2.5
44.6%
@ 1.70-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Bet365
2.15
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Under
Unibet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.0%
@ 3.72+8.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
@ 1.24-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.91
BetVictor
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.5%
@ 1.81+8.3%
No
40.5%
@ 1.90-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
1.83
Bet365
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
No
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.95
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 5.71+4.9%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.25+4.1%
1-2
7.8%@ 9.47+3.1%
1-0
7.4%@ 7.42+1.4%
0-0
6.7%@ 8.01+1.1%
2-0
6.6%@ 11.53+2.7%
0-1
6.3%@ 7.51+0.4%
2-2 ✓
6.0%@ 13.47+2.7%
Newport County goals ↓
Tranmere goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
6.3%
5.0%
2.3%
0.8%
1
7.4%
13%
7.8%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.6%
8.9%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.4%
4.6%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.3%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Newport County goals (down), columns = Tranmere goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Newport County is 0.04 points better than Tranmere in terms of average points per game (0.93 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Newport County is 0.13 goals worse than Tranmere in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Newport County is 0.04 goals better than Tranmere in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Newport County is 2.1 percentage points worse than Tranmere in terms of average possession (47% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Newport County
For 5.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tranmere
For 4.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 10.4 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newport County
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.6
3.9
4.1
3.6
23.0
22.8
23.2
vs Stronger (6)
9.3
9.7
9.0
3.5
2.7
4.3
22.3
20.0
24.7
vs Similar (43)
9.6
9.6
9.7
3.9
4.2
3.5
23.0
23.1
23.0
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
15.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
59%
58%
60%
52%
64%
40%
65%
62%
68%
% under line
41%
42%
40%
48%
36%
60%
35%
38%
32%
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tranmere
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.6
10.5
3.8
3.9
3.7
22.8
23.2
22.2
vs Stronger (7)
9.8
10.3
9.3
3.4
3.2
3.7
20.7
22.3
19.0
vs Similar (42)
10.1
9.6
10.7
3.9
4.0
3.6
22.9
23.1
22.7
vs Weaker (1)
7.0
7.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
29.0
29.0
-
% over line
51%
42%
61%
54%
52%
57%
61%
65%
57%
% under line
49%
58%
39%
46%
48%
43%
39%
35%
43%
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.5%
@ 1.79+3.6%
Under 9.5
44.5%
@ 1.93-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.8%
Under 3.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.0%
Under 21.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Newport County or Draw✓ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied 65.6% · @ 1.42
Edge
+2.3%
41%
27%
32%
covers Newport County + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Newport County or Tranmere✗ Miss
73.0%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.32
Edge
+2.4%
41%
27%
32%
covers Newport County + Tranmere
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Draw or Tranmere✓ Hit
59.1%
Avg Implied 63.8% · @ 1.46
Edge
-4.7%
41%
27%
32%
covers Draw + Tranmere
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Newport County over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.7%
@ 1.32+8.2%
Under
21.3%
@ 3.15-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.32
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.20
BetVictor
3.10
Newport County over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.8%
@ 2.56+9.4%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.46-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
10Bet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Under
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Newport County over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.3%
@ 6.22+5.4%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.09-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.15
Superbet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Newport County over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 15.17+0.9%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.02-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Tranmere over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.1%
@ 1.34+4.8%
Under
25.9%
@ 3.02-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.11
Unibet
3.05
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Tranmere over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.1%
@ 2.65+4.1%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.43-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.85
BetVictor
2.75
Marathonbet
2.73
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.67
Under
Betfair
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Tranmere over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 6.39+1.0%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.08-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Tranmere over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 16.33-1.0%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.01+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Newport County, so a minus line means Newport County give that many goals of a start and Tranmere receive them. At -1, Newport County must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Newport County win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Newport County)Actual: Tranmere
Newport County -2
8.3%
@ 11.48+0.6%
Draw -2
12.6%
@ 6.63-0.8%
Tranmere +2
79.1%
@ 1.12+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.90
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Newport County)Actual: Tranmere
Newport County -1
20.9%
@ 5.24+3.8%
Draw -1
20.0%
@ 4.11-1.8%
Tranmere +1
59.1%
@ 1.47-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
5.10
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Handicap +1 (Newport County)Actual: Newport County
Newport County +1
67.9%
@ 1.43+5.4%
Draw +1
17.3%
@ 4.18-4.1%
Tranmere -1
14.8%
@ 5.56-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.42
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Handicap +2 (Newport County)Actual: Newport County
Newport County +2
85.2%
@ 1.11+4.2%
Draw +2
9.6%
@ 7.42-2.5%
Tranmere -2
5.2%
@ 13.12-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
11.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Newport County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.47
0.47
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.62
0.38
0.54
0.31
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tranmere
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.80
0.31
0.94
0.29
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
-
-
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.31
0.73
0.27
0.93
0.36
0.45
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.8%
@ 1.43+4.8%
Under 0.5
30.2%
@ 2.66-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.77
Unibet
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Superbet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.4%
@ 3.00+1.4%
Under 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.35-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.20
Betano
3.15
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Under
Unibet
1.38
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.7%
@ 7.92+0.9%
Under 2.5
87.3%
@ 1.05-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.50
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Newport County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.5%
@ 2.15+7.5%
Under
49.5%
@ 1.63-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Under
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Newport County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.4%
@ 7.12+0.4%
Under
86.6%
@ 1.07-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Newport County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 20.83-1.6%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Tranmere over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.9%
@ 2.22-1.9%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.59+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Under
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Tranmere over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 7.44-1.6%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.06+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Tranmere over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 21.50-2.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Newport County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.97
0.73
0.73
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.77
1.04
0.62
0.77
0.92
1.31
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tranmere
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.50
0.81
0.64
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
-
-
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.96
0.47
0.80
0.73
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Newport County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.7%
@ 1.27+5.9%
Under 0.5
21.3%
@ 3.41-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Betano
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.36
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.7%
@ 2.26+2.5%
Under 1.5
56.3%
@ 1.58-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.0%
@ 5.12-0.2%
Under 2.5
82.0%
@ 1.14+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.15
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.10
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Newport County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
55.3%
@ 1.84+5.0%
Under
44.7%
@ 1.86-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Newport County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.0%
@ 5.19+2.1%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.13-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.15
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Newport County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 14.58-1.6%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Tranmere over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.1%
@ 1.87+1.6%
Under
48.9%
@ 1.83-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Tranmere over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
15.2%
@ 5.40-2.0%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.12+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.70
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Tranmere over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 15.00-2.6%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.6%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
84.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.14
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
+0.2%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
79.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.7%
1.35
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.38
BetVictor
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.1%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.7%
1.32
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.1%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Newport County
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shaquille Gwengwe67%
H. Biggins50%
Yahya Bamba33%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Alfie Merritt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Doidge33%
C. Norman25%
Ciaran Brennan25%
Alfie Merritt25%
H. Biggins0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Christian Doidge33%
Shaquille Gwengwe33%
H. Biggins25%
Alfie Merritt25%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Biggins25%
Christian Doidge0%
C. Norman0%
L. Jenkins0%
Kyle Cameron0%
J. Wright0%
Ciaran Brennan0%
C. Evans0%
D. Sassi0%
Yahya Bamba0%
Shaquille Gwengwe0%
Alfie Merritt0%
Tranmere
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Ince50%
Z. Okoro50%
Jordan Davies33%
Charlie Whitaker33%
J. Turnbull0%
N. Smith0%
Tom Conlon0%
W. Vaulks0%
S. Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
J. Senior0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
J. Slater0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordan Davies67%
Charlie Whitaker33%
N. Smith25%
Tom Ince25%
S. Finley25%
Joe Ironside25%
J. Senior25%
Bobby Faulkner25%
J. Slater25%
J. Turnbull0%
Tom Conlon0%
W. Vaulks0%
Z. Okoro0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turnbull25%
Tom Conlon25%
J. Senior25%
J. Slater25%
N. Smith0%
Tom Ince0%
W. Vaulks0%
S. Finley0%
Jordan Davies0%
Joe Ironside0%
Charlie Whitaker0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Z. Okoro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
W. Vaulks33%
Jordan Davies33%
Charlie Whitaker33%
Tom Ince25%
Z. Okoro25%
J. Turnbull0%
N. Smith0%
Tom Conlon0%
S. Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
J. Senior0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
J. Slater0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Newport County's squad is €2m less valuable than Tranmere's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Newport County and Tranmere have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Newport County and Tranmere have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Newport County and Tranmere have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale