This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.10
1.47
1.00
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.08
1.20
0.40
0.29
1.57
vs Similar (18)
1.50
1.11
1.60
1.30
1.38
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
64.7%
Under 1.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.5%
Under 2.5
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.2%
Under 3.5
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.5%
No
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.9%
1-0 ✓
12.2%
0-1
10.2%
2-0
7.8%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.7%
NK Varazdin goals ↓
HNK Gorica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.7%
1.9%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.6%
2.2%
0.5%
2
7.8%
7.8%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.0%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NK Varazdin goals (down), columns = HNK Gorica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.28
HNK Rijeka
2.06
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Osijek
1.58
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.42
NK Varazdin
1.17
HNK Gorica
1.14
Istra 1961
1.14
NK Slaven Belupo
0.92
Rudes
0.25
NK Varazdin is 0.03 points better than HNK Gorica in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Rijeka
1.92
Dinamo Zagreb
1.86
NK Osijek
1.72
HNK Hajduk Split
1.50
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
NK Slaven Belupo
1.19
NK Varazdin
1.08
Istra 1961
1.00
HNK Gorica
0.97
Rudes
0.61
NK Varazdin is 0.11 goals better than HNK Gorica in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Hajduk Split
0.72
Dinamo Zagreb
0.83
HNK Rijeka
0.83
NK Osijek
1.19
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Varazdin
1.31
HNK Gorica
1.39
Istra 1961
1.50
NK Slaven Belupo
1.92
Rudes
2.36
NK Varazdin is 0.08 goals better than HNK Gorica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
61%
HNK Hajduk Split
54%
NK Osijek
53%
HNK Rijeka
53%
NK Varazdin
49%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
49%
Istra 1961
48%
Rudes
45%
NK Slaven Belupo
45%
HNK Gorica
43%
NK Varazdin is 6.3 percentage points better than HNK Gorica in terms of average possession (49% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NK Varazdin
For 4.1 · Against 7.4 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 14.9 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Gorica
For 3.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 9.2 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NK Varazdin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
9.5
9.8
9.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
25.3
25.6
25.0
vs Stronger (14)
9.9
11.0
8.7
3.8
3.3
4.3
23.2
25.3
21.1
vs Similar (30)
9.3
9.1
9.5
4.3
4.6
4.1
26.3
25.7
26.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
48%
45%
64%
64%
64%
77%
76%
77%
% under line
53%
52%
55%
36%
36%
36%
23%
24%
23%
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
8.5
8.8
8.2
5.0
4.6
5.5
24.3
23.4
25.2
vs Stronger (19)
8.1
8.3
7.8
5.2
5.3
5.1
23.9
24.4
23.5
vs Similar (25)
8.8
9.2
8.5
4.9
4.1
5.8
24.6
22.7
26.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
35%
43%
27%
64%
55%
73%
77%
81%
73%
% under line
65%
57%
73%
36%
45%
27%
23%
19%
27%
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rudes
9.6
NK Varazdin
9.5
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.4
HNK Rijeka
9.1
HNK Hajduk Split
8.8
NK Osijek
8.8
HNK Gorica
8.5
NK Slaven Belupo
8.4
Istra 1961
8.0
Dinamo Zagreb
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
HNK Rijeka
5.2
HNK Gorica
5.1
Istra 1961
5.0
NK Osijek
4.8
HNK Hajduk Split
4.7
NK Slaven Belupo
4.5
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.4
NK Varazdin
4.4
Dinamo Zagreb
3.5
Rudes
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
25.8
HNK Rijeka
25.4
NK Varazdin
25.3
NK Osijek
24.9
HNK Gorica
24.3
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
24.1
HNK Hajduk Split
23.9
NK Slaven Belupo
23.8
Rudes
22.1
Dinamo Zagreb
20.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.7%
Under 9.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.6%
Under 3.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
70.2%
Under 21.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.43
0.27
0.20
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.56
0.20
0.20
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.38
0.30
0.20
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.40
0.33
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.39
0.60
0.50
0.88
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NK Varazdin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.80
1.00
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.78
0.80
2.20
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.62
0.80
0.40
0.91
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
1.07
0.67
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.75
1.20
0.40
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.72
1.00
0.80
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Varazdin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NK Varazdin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Varazdin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NK Varazdin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fran Brodić45%
Igor Postonjski20%
Marko Dabro20%
Agon Elezi18%
Domagoj Drožđek18%
Leon Belcar15%
Dimitar Mitrovski13%
Jorgo Pëllumbi8%
Michele Šego7%
Marin Pilj6%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Matija Kolarić0%
Leonard Vuk0%
Jurica Poldrugač0%
Lamine Ba0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Karlo Bručić0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Luka Jelenić0%
Ante Vukušić0%
David Mistrafović0%
Tomislav Gudelj0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Noa Vugrinec0%
Lovro Banovec0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Tin Levanić0%
Sven Lesjak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lovro Banovec38%
Igor Postonjski30%
Ivan Nekić26%
Mario Marina26%
Karlo Lusavec21%
Luka Jelenić21%
Marin Pilj18%
Marko Vukčević17%
Domagoj Drožđek14%
Tin Levanić14%
Marko Dabro13%
Dimitar Mitrovski13%
Antonio Boršić9%
Oliver Zelenika9%
Fran Brodić9%
Agon Elezi9%
Luka Škaričić8%
Jorgo Pëllumbi8%
Jurica Poldrugač8%
Leon Belcar8%
Michele Šego7%
Niko Domjanić6%
Lamine Ba6%
Matija Kolarić0%
Leonard Vuk0%
Karlo Bručić0%
Ante Vukušić0%
David Mistrafović0%
Tomislav Gudelj0%
Noa Vugrinec0%
Sven Lesjak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michele Šego13%
Antonio Boršić12%
Tomislav Gudelj11%
Jorgo Pëllumbi8%
Domagoj Drožđek7%
Marko Vukčević7%
Ivan Nekić5%
Karlo Lusavec5%
Luka Škaričić4%
Igor Postonjski3%
Dimitar Mitrovski3%
Marin Pilj0%
Mario Marina0%
Matija Kolarić0%
Leonard Vuk0%
Jurica Poldrugač0%
Lamine Ba0%
Fran Brodić0%
Karlo Bručić0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Luka Jelenić0%
Marko Dabro0%
Ante Vukušić0%
David Mistrafović0%
Agon Elezi0%
Leon Belcar0%
Noa Vugrinec0%
Lovro Banovec0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Tin Levanić0%
Sven Lesjak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Brodić36%
Dimitar Mitrovski20%
Domagoj Drožđek14%
Ante Vukušić12%
Tomislav Gudelj11%
Michele Šego10%
Igor Postonjski10%
Marko Dabro7%
Marin Pilj6%
Leon Belcar4%
Jorgo Pëllumbi0%
Mario Marina0%
Ivan Nekić0%
Antonio Boršić0%
Matija Kolarić0%
Leonard Vuk0%
Jurica Poldrugač0%
Lamine Ba0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Karlo Bručić0%
Oliver Zelenika0%
Luka Jelenić0%
David Mistrafović0%
Agon Elezi0%
Luka Škaričić0%
Karlo Lusavec0%
Noa Vugrinec0%
Lovro Banovec0%
Niko Domjanić0%
Tin Levanić0%
Sven Lesjak0%
HNK Gorica
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tim Matavž21%
Nikola Vujnović15%
Gabrijel Rukavina13%
Ante Matej Jurić13%
Josip Mitrović13%
Valentino Majstorović12%
Sven Blummel11%
Jurica Pršir9%
Marko Soldo9%
Dino Štiglec6%
Momčilo Raspopović0%
Krešimir Krizmanić0%
Martin Šroler0%
Ivan Banić0%
Mateo Leš0%
Alexander Munksgaard0%
Mario Maloča0%
Božidar Radošević0%
Filip Mrzljak0%
Merveil Ndockyt0%
Lenny Ilečić0%
Andrej Lazarov0%
Luka Kapulica0%
Mario Matković0%
Sekou Matar Sagna0%
Arona Fall0%
Luka Vrzić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mario Matković38%
Andrej Lazarov33%
Ante Matej Jurić30%
Merveil Ndockyt25%
Jurica Pršir24%
Marko Soldo21%
Filip Mrzljak17%
Momčilo Raspopović17%
Alexander Munksgaard15%
Mateo Leš13%
Sven Blummel11%
Josip Mitrović10%
Ivan Banić6%
Mario Maloča6%
Dino Štiglec6%
Valentino Majstorović6%
Luka Kapulica4%
Nikola Vujnović4%
Krešimir Krizmanić0%
Martin Šroler0%
Božidar Radošević0%
Tim Matavž0%
Lenny Ilečić0%
Gabrijel Rukavina0%
Sekou Matar Sagna0%
Arona Fall0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dino Štiglec18%
Ante Matej Jurić13%
Krešimir Krizmanić11%
Josip Mitrović10%
Jurica Pršir9%
Tim Matavž8%
Merveil Ndockyt8%
Lenny Ilečić7%
Momčilo Raspopović6%
Luka Kapulica4%
Filip Mrzljak3%
Marko Soldo3%
Martin Šroler0%
Ivan Banić0%
Mateo Leš0%
Valentino Majstorović0%
Alexander Munksgaard0%
Mario Maloča0%
Božidar Radošević0%
Sven Blummel0%
Nikola Vujnović0%
Andrej Lazarov0%
Gabrijel Rukavina0%
Mario Matković0%
Sekou Matar Sagna0%
Arona Fall0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Vujnović19%
Josip Mitrović13%
Merveil Ndockyt8%
Ante Matej Jurić7%
Jurica Pršir6%
Momčilo Raspopović6%
Tim Matavž4%
Dino Štiglec3%
Krešimir Krizmanić0%
Martin Šroler0%
Ivan Banić0%
Mateo Leš0%
Valentino Majstorović0%
Alexander Munksgaard0%
Mario Maloča0%
Božidar Radošević0%
Sven Blummel0%
Filip Mrzljak0%
Lenny Ilečić0%
Andrej Lazarov0%
Gabrijel Rukavina0%
Marko Soldo0%
Luka Kapulica0%
Mario Matković0%
Sekou Matar Sagna0%
Arona Fall0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
NK Varazdin's squad is €3m more valuable than HNK Gorica's (€11m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
NK Varazdin's attack is €1m more valuable than HNK Gorica's (€6m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
NK Varazdin and HNK Gorica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
NK Varazdin's defence is €2m more valuable than HNK Gorica's (€5m vs €3m).
Croatia: HNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →