This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.37
1.07
1.13
0.27
1.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.73
0.71
1.43
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.93
1.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.6%
Under 1.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.7%
@ 2.22-3.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
@ 1.63+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.6%
No
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.4%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
11.9%
2-0
11.4%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.1%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
4.7%
Northampton goals ↓
Shrewsbury goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.1%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
1
14%
13%
4.7%
1.2%
0.2%
2
11%
8.8%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
5.6%
4.3%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Northampton goals (down), columns = Shrewsbury goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Northampton is 0.26 points better than Shrewsbury in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Northampton is 0.48 goals better than Shrewsbury in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 0.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Northampton is 0.02 goals better than Shrewsbury in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Northampton is 7.4 percentage points better than Shrewsbury in terms of average possession (49% vs 41%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Northampton
For 2.9 · Against 5.6 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 8.8 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shrewsbury
For 3.6 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 10.4 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Northampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.8
9.2
3.9
4.1
3.7
21.5
22.0
21.0
vs Stronger (6)
8.8
7.0
9.8
2.8
2.5
3.0
19.0
20.5
18.2
vs Similar (39)
9.0
9.0
9.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
22.0
22.2
21.8
vs Weaker (5)
9.0
-
9.0
3.0
-
3.0
21.0
-
21.0
% over line
40%
44%
36%
52%
56%
48%
50%
52%
48%
% under line
60%
56%
64%
48%
44%
52%
50%
48%
52%
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.4
9.8
4.2
4.3
4.2
21.1
21.6
20.7
vs Stronger (28)
9.6
10.2
9.2
4.1
3.9
4.2
20.1
20.7
19.6
vs Similar (21)
10.5
10.6
10.3
4.4
4.8
3.9
22.7
22.6
22.8
vs Weaker (1)
14.0
-
14.0
6.0
-
6.0
19.0
-
19.0
% over line
56%
62%
50%
66%
75%
58%
46%
54%
38%
% under line
44%
38%
50%
34%
25%
42%
54%
46%
62%
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Derby
11.3
Charlton
11.1
Exeter
11.1
Oxford
11.0
Peterboro
10.9
Fleetwood Town
10.9
Port Vale
10.9
Wycombe
10.8
Bristol Rvs
10.8
Portsmouth
10.5
Bolton
10.3
Reading
10.2
Shrewsbury
10.1
Barnsley
9.9
Cambridge
9.9
Leyton Orient
9.8
Carlisle
9.6
Burton
9.6
Cheltenham
9.5
Stevenage
9.4
Blackpool
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
Wigan
9.0
Northampton
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wigan
5.0
Portsmouth
4.9
Bristol Rvs
4.7
Fleetwood Town
4.4
Port Vale
4.3
Oxford
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.2
Leyton Orient
4.2
Stevenage
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Charlton
4.0
Cheltenham
4.0
Bolton
4.0
Exeter
4.0
Barnsley
3.9
Northampton
3.9
Carlisle
3.9
Reading
3.9
Cambridge
3.9
Blackpool
3.9
Wycombe
3.8
Peterboro
3.7
Derby
3.6
Burton
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
24.7
Portsmouth
24.5
Wigan
23.6
Bristol Rvs
23.1
Oxford
22.7
Fleetwood Town
22.6
Blackpool
22.3
Bolton
22.3
Cambridge
22.0
Cheltenham
21.8
Port Vale
21.7
Reading
21.6
Northampton
21.5
Lincoln
21.4
Barnsley
21.3
Shrewsbury
21.1
Charlton
20.9
Wycombe
20.9
Peterboro
20.8
Carlisle
20.7
Exeter
20.7
Leyton Orient
20.6
Burton
20.3
Derby
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.2%
Under 9.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.2%
Under 3.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
65.7%
Under 21.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Northampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
0.00
1.00
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.42
0.57
0.43
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.40
0.47
0.20
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
0.67
0.14
0.43
0.25
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.14
0.75
0.00
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Northampton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Northampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.62
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.62
1.00
0.57
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Shrewsbury) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shrewsbury
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.97
0.60
0.93
0.07
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.07
0.57
1.00
0.00
1.12
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.79
0.62
0.88
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Northampton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Northampton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northampton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shrewsbury over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Northampton · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elliott Moore0%
Sam Hoskins0%
Lee Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
James Maxwell0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
Matty Warhurst0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lee Evans33%
James Maxwell33%
Tyrese Fornah33%
Elliott Moore0%
Sam Hoskins0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Elliott Moore0%
Sam Hoskins0%
Lee Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
James Maxwell0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sam Hoskins33%
Elliott Moore0%
Lee Evans0%
Janoi Donacien0%
Jon Guthrie0%
James Maxwell0%
Zach Jeacock0%
Tyrese Fornah0%
Matty Warhurst0%
Shrewsbury · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Davison50%
William Boyle25%
George Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
Will Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arkell Jude-Boyd67%
George Lloyd25%
Kevin Berkoe25%
Jay Turner-Cooke25%
Joe Gbode25%
William Boyle0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Will Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Will Gray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
William Boyle0%
George Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
Will Brook0%
Isaac Fletcher0%
Joe Gbode0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Isaac Fletcher25%
Joe Gbode25%
William Boyle0%
George Lloyd0%
Thomas Sang0%
Josh Ruffels0%
Kevin Berkoe0%
Luca Hoole0%
Josh Davison0%
Jay Turner-Cooke0%
Will Brook0%
Arkell Jude-Boyd0%
Will Gray0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Northampton and Shrewsbury have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Northampton and Shrewsbury have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Northampton and Shrewsbury have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Northampton and Shrewsbury have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Portsmouth
Derby
Bolton
Peterboro
Oxford
Barnsley
Lincoln
Blackpool
Stevenage
Wigan
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Reading
Bristol Rvs
Charlton
Cambridge
Burton
Cheltenham
Fleetwood Town
Port Vale
Carlisle