Norwich’s recent slump of three straight defeats and a 0-3 loss to Millwall sets the stage for a cautious home outing, while Burnley, after a defeat to West Brom, will look to rebound. The model favours a Norwich victory, assigning a 37 % chance to a home win, 27 % to a draw and 36 % to a Burnley win. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4 % probability, and the expected total goals is 3.0, though the most likely total is 2 goals at 24 %. Norwich averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.07 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Burnley averages 0.89 goals scored and 2.78 conceded away. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6 % with an 8 % edge), Under 6.5 (96.8 % with a 2 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.3 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.5 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (93.7 % with a 2 % edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (93.5 % with a 1 % edge).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Norwich secured a 4-1 victory, extending their two-game winning run. The pre-match favourite was a home win, assigned a 39% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The match’s final score matched the actual result, confirming the home advantage. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit with a 98.8% probability, Home under 2.5 HT goals missed, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.2%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.4%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 94.1%, and Home under 3.5 goals missed at 92.9%. The model’s overall performance was strong, with most picks coming through.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Norwich win✓ Hit
38.9%
Avg Implied 42.0% · @ 2.23
Edge
-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.28
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.26
10Bet
2.26
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.48
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.70
Pinnacle
3.61
Dafabet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Burnley win✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 3.01
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.18
Betano
3.10
Dafabet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Norwich
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.10
1.75
1.06
1.71
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.52
1.15
1.31
1.15
1.71
1.14
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.67
3.67
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burnley
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.87
1.38
1.75
0.79
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.43
1.50
1.75
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.15
2.15
1.40
1.80
0.90
2.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
@ 1.24+5.5%
Under 1.5
18.9%
@ 3.84-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.19
Betfair
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.5%
@ 1.79+4.5%
Under 2.5
42.5%
@ 2.01-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.09
Superbet
2.05
SBO
2.03
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.1%
@ 2.92+2.9%
Under 3.5
64.9%
@ 1.38-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Betano
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.3%
@ 1.63+4.2%
No
38.7%
@ 2.17-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.65
Betfair
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.64
No
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.18
BetVictor
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%@ 6.32+5.2%
2-1
8.7%@ 8.37+3.3%
1-2
8.1%@ 9.89+3.5%
1-0
6.6%@ 8.28+1.2%
2-2
6.3%@ 12.00+2.5%
0-0
6.1%@ 11.08+2.1%
0-1
6.1%@ 9.82+1.5%
2-0
6.0%@ 11.10+1.9%
Norwich goals ↓
Burnley goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
6.1%
5.3%
2.5%
0.9%
1
6.6%
12%
8.1%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.7%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.1%
4.5%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.2%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Norwich goals (down), columns = Burnley goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Norwich is 0.31 points worse than Burnley in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Norwich is 0.26 goals worse than Burnley in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Norwich is 0.19 goals worse than Burnley in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Norwich
For 6.4 · Against 3.0 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Burnley
For 4.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 9.7 · Total 21.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Norwich
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.3
10.6
3.8
3.8
3.9
21.3
21.3
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (46)
10.4
10.3
10.5
4.0
4.0
3.9
21.6
21.6
21.5
vs Weaker (4)
10.8
10.0
13.0
2.2
1.7
4.0
18.2
18.7
17.0
% over line
62%
64%
60%
58%
56%
60%
46%
48%
44%
% under line
38%
36%
40%
42%
44%
40%
54%
52%
56%
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burnley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.4
9.7
3.2
2.7
3.8
20.0
19.7
20.5
vs Stronger (14)
9.9
9.6
10.1
2.9
2.1
3.7
20.4
20.6
20.1
vs Similar (33)
9.2
9.4
8.8
3.2
2.7
3.9
19.7
18.7
20.9
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
8.5
19.0
3.7
4.5
2.0
22.3
25.5
16.0
% over line
48%
48%
48%
42%
30%
57%
38%
30%
48%
% under line
52%
52%
52%
58%
70%
43%
62%
70%
52%
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
10.9
Cardiff
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Millwall
10.7
Blackburn
10.6
Preston
10.6
Stoke
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Watford
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.5
Wolves
9.4
West Brom
9.2
Lincoln
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Lincoln
4.2
Sheffield United
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Southampton
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Swansea
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Preston
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.2
Lincoln
23.1
Derby
22.8
Swansea
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
Bolton
22.2
West Ham
22.2
Birmingham
21.9
Sheffield United
21.6
Middlesbrough
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Norwich
21.3
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
Blackburn
21.0
West Brom
20.9
Stoke
20.8
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.7
Millwall
20.7
Burnley
20.0
Preston
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.3%
@ 1.74+4.8%
Under 9.5
41.7%
@ 2.00-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.2%
@ 1.81+0.9%
Under 3.5
47.8%
@ 1.91-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Under
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
1.99
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
47.7%
@ 1.82-1.4%
Under 21.5
52.3%
@ 1.75+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
Under
Superbet
1.75
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Norwich or Draw✓ Hit
65.5%
Avg Implied 68.6% · @ 1.36
Edge
-3.1%
39%
27%
35%
covers Norwich + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Norwich or Burnley✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied 73.3% · @ 1.28
Edge
+0.1%
39%
27%
35%
covers Norwich + Burnley
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Burnley✗ Miss
61.1%
Avg Implied 58.1% · @ 1.61
Edge
+3.0%
39%
27%
35%
covers Draw + Burnley
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Norwich over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.7%
@ 1.21+1.9%
Under
21.3%
@ 4.00-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
4.48
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Norwich over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.7%
@ 2.06+0.2%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.71-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
Norwich over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
20.3%
@ 4.37-1.1%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.18+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.36
Bet365
4.33
Under
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Norwich over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
7.1%
@ 9.39-2.8%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.60
1xBet
9.10
Marathonbet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Burnley over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.5%
@ 1.30+5.2%
Under
23.5%
@ 3.24-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Burnley over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.4%
@ 2.50+5.1%
Under
57.6%
@ 1.49-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
BetVictor
2.50
Betano
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Burnley over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.8%
@ 5.78+1.7%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.10-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
1xBet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Burnley over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 13.75-1.0%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.02+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Norwich, so a minus line means Norwich give that many goals of a start and Burnley receive them. At -1, Norwich must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Norwich win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Norwich)Actual: Norwich
Norwich -2
7.8%
@ 9.00-2.2%
Draw -2
11.9%
@ 6.28-2.4%
Burnley +2
80.3%
@ 1.19+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
9.00
Superbet
8.10
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.15
Away
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Handicap -1 (Norwich)Actual: Norwich
Norwich -1
19.7%
@ 4.12-2.0%
Draw -1
19.2%
@ 3.91-3.7%
Burnley +1
61.1%
@ 1.61+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Away
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Handicap +1 (Norwich)Actual: Norwich
Norwich +1
65.5%
@ 1.36+0.1%
Draw +1
17.9%
@ 4.57-1.6%
Burnley -1
16.6%
@ 5.92+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.75
Handicap +2 (Norwich)Actual: Norwich
Norwich +2
83.4%
@ 1.10+2.2%
Draw +2
10.4%
@ 7.61-1.3%
Burnley -2
6.2%
@ 12.66-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
6.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Norwich
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.75
0.38
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.52
0.38
0.46
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.00
2.33
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burnley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.62
1.00
0.36
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.75
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
1.10
0.60
1.20
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.7%
@ 1.34-0.2%
Under 0.5
30.3%
@ 3.09+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.30
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.58-2.9%
Under 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.46+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Pinnacle
2.66
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Under
William Hil
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 6.25-3.1%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.09+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Betano
6.10
Under
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Norwich over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.1%
@ 1.88-8.3%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.84+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Norwich over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.8%
@ 5.42-7.2%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.11+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Betano
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Norwich over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
1.7%
@ 14.12-5.0%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Burnley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.6%
@ 2.14+5.0%
Under
51.4%
@ 1.65-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Burnley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.7%
@ 6.64+1.8%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.07-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Unibet
6.50
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Burnley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 17.25-3.7%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Norwich
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.00
0.69
1.21
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.07
0.63
0.92
0.69
1.21
0.57
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Burnley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Burnley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.75
0.75
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.57
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
1.05
0.80
0.60
0.40
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Norwich) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.5%
@ 1.20+0.1%
Under 0.5
22.5%
@ 4.12-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Betano
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.1%
@ 1.97-5.3%
Under 1.5
57.9%
@ 1.77+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Under
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 3.99-6.4%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.21+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Norwich over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.5%
@ 1.64-9.3%
Under
52.5%
@ 2.15+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Under
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.01
Norwich over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 3.95-11.7%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.21+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Norwich over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 10.38-6.3%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
Burnley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
57.0%
@ 1.79+5.4%
Under
43.0%
@ 1.91-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Under
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Burnley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.1%
@ 4.91+3.3%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.14-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Burnley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 12.75-1.8%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+2.8%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
91.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
BetVictor
1.02
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.11
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+7.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.09
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Unibet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.20
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
81.7%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
-1.3%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.1%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
+4.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
79.7%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+1.1%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
78.7%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
-3.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.20
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.5%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.4%
1.28
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.8%
1.34
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.4%
1.43
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
+5.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Norwich
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
M. Touré40%
M. Kvistgaarden40%
Andre Brooks33%
Ben Chrisene20%
Anis Ben Slimane17%
P. Mattsson0%
H. Darling0%
K. McLean0%
S. Field0%
J. Stacey0%
Anthony Musaba0%
José Córdoba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ruairi McConville0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
José Córdoba80%
K. McLean40%
Andre Brooks33%
H. Darling25%
Ruairi McConville25%
J. Stacey20%
P. Mattsson17%
Anis Ben Slimane17%
S. Field0%
Anthony Musaba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
M. Touré0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Stacey40%
Anthony Musaba25%
K. McLean20%
José Córdoba20%
M. Touré20%
Jacob Wright20%
Andre Brooks17%
P. Mattsson0%
H. Darling0%
S. Field0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Anis Ben Slimane0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
Ruairi McConville0%
K. Fisher0%
O. Schwartau0%
P. Diallo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Touré40%
K. Fisher33%
H. Darling25%
Anthony Musaba25%
K. McLean20%
O. Schwartau17%
Andre Brooks17%
P. Mattsson0%
S. Field0%
J. Stacey0%
José Córdoba0%
Vladan Kovačević0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Anis Ben Slimane0%
M. Kvistgaarden0%
Ruairi McConville0%
Jacob Wright0%
P. Diallo0%
Burnley
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zian Flemming50%
Josh Laurent20%
Ugo Raghouber17%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Zian Flemming25%
Oliver Sonne25%
Josh Laurent20%
Marcus Edwards20%
Hannibal Mejbri17%
Ugo Raghouber17%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Armando Broja0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Max Alleyne25%
Marcus Edwards20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen17%
Zeki Amdouni17%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Josh Laurent0%
Zian Flemming0%
Mike Trésor0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Aaron Ramsey0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zian Flemming75%
Josh Laurent20%
Aaron Ramsey20%
Jacob Bruun Larsen0%
Kyle Walker0%
Anel Ahmedhodžić0%
Connor Roberts0%
Mike Trésor0%
Marcus Edwards0%
Zeki Amdouni0%
Oliver Sonne0%
Armando Broja0%
Hannibal Mejbri0%
Bashir Humphreys0%
Max Alleyne0%
Max Weiss0%
Lucas Pires0%
Ugo Raghouber0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Norwich's squad is €8m less valuable than Burnley's (€107m vs €115m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Norwich's attack is €23m less valuable than Burnley's (€46m vs €70m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Norwich's midfield is €23m more valuable than Burnley's (€31m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Norwich's defence is €8m less valuable than Burnley's (€29m vs €37m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Portsmouth
Stoke
Preston