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NŠ Drava vs Tolmin Result & Analysis

Date: 17/05/2025
Time: 15:30
Final 1-2
NŠ Drava
NŠ Drava
Vs
43%
28%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tolmin
Tolmin
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

NŠ Drava win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tolmin win✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

NŠ DravaNŠ Drava

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L21W04L10W04L04L11D02L22D02LA·GOR16/03H·BEL23/03A·BRI29/03H·RUD06/04A·TRI13/04H·BIS19/04H·SLO26/04A·TAB04/05H·BIL07/05A·KRK11/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.712.140.862.360.571.93
vs Stronger (8)0.383.380.753.750.003.00
vs Similar (20)0.851.650.901.800.801.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %18% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TolminTolmin

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W05L05L02L02L02L01L04L05L35LA·DEK15/03H·DRA22/03A·ALU28/03H·ILI05/04A·GOR11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI25/04H·RUD03/05A·TRI07/05H·BIS11/05
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.970.731.670.732.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.731.970.731.670.732.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (NŠ Drava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
Under 1.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.0%
Under 2.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
7.8%
2-0
7.6%
1-2 ✓
7.2%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
5.5%
NŠ Drava goals ↓
Tolmin goals →
01234
07.8%6.8%4.8%1.9%0.6%
18.8%13%7.2%2.9%0.9%
27.6%9.1%5.5%2.2%0.7%
33.8%4.6%2.8%1.1%0.3%
41.4%1.7%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NŠ Drava goals (down), columns = Tolmin goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aluminij
2.13
Triglav
2.10
Gorica
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.83
Tabor Sežana
1.80
Bistrica
1.70
Dravinja
1.50
Krka
1.27
Beltinci
1.10
Bilje
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.10
Dekani
1.07
Rudar
1.07
Ilirija
0.87
Tolmin
0.73
NŠ Drava
0.67
NŠ Drava is 0.07 points worse than Tolmin in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 0.73).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Gorica
2.00
Bistrica
2.00
Aluminij
1.97
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.93
Tabor Sežana
1.90
Beltinci
1.33
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.17
Slovan Ljubljana
1.13
Dekani
1.07
Ilirija
0.93
Krka
0.93
Rudar
0.90
Tolmin
0.87
NŠ Drava
0.73
NŠ Drava is 0.13 goals worse than Tolmin in terms of goals scored per game (0.73 vs 0.87).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Aluminij
0.93
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.03
Krka
1.07
Triglav
1.10
Gorica
1.13
Tabor Sežana
1.17
Dravinja
1.20
Bistrica
1.27
Slovan Ljubljana
1.30
Rudar
1.47
Bilje
1.50
Beltinci
1.60
Ilirija
1.63
Dekani
1.87
Tolmin
2.07
NŠ Drava
2.17
NŠ Drava is 0.10 goals worse than Tolmin in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 2.07).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

NŠ DravaNŠ Drava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W02L00D01L02L00D00D01L00DA·GOR16/03H·BEL23/03A·BRI29/03H·RUD06/04A·TRI13/04H·BIS19/04H·SLO26/04A·TAB04/05H·BIL07/05A·KRK11/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.290.820.211.000.360.64
vs Stronger (8)0.251.380.501.750.001.00
vs Similar (20)0.300.600.100.700.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TolminTolmin

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L03L00D00D01L00D01L02L13LA·DEK15/03H·DRA22/03A·ALU28/03H·ILI05/04A·GOR11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI25/04H·RUD03/05A·TRI07/05H·BIS11/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.000.400.730.331.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.371.000.400.730.331.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (NŠ Drava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NŠ Drava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NŠ Drava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NŠ Drava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

NŠ DravaNŠ Drava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L11D02L10W03L02L11D02L21W02LA·GOR16/03H·BEL23/03A·BRI29/03H·RUD06/04A·TRI13/04H·BIS19/04H·SLO26/04A·TAB04/05H·BIL07/05A·KRK11/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.320.641.360.211.29
vs Stronger (8)0.122.000.252.000.002.00
vs Similar (20)0.551.050.801.100.301.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Tolmin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TolminTolmin

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L02L02L02L01L01L03L03L22DA·DEK15/03H·DRA22/03A·ALU28/03H·ILI05/04A·GOR11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI25/04H·RUD03/05A·TRI07/05H·BIS11/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.970.330.930.401.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.370.970.330.930.401.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (NŠ Drava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NŠ Drava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NŠ Drava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NŠ Drava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tolmin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ND wins
1
Draws
0
TOL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

NŠ Drava vs Tolmin · H/A from ND
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/24ATolmin Vs ND1-1

NŠ DravaNŠ Drava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25AKrka Vs ND2-0
07/05/25HND Vs Bilje2-2
04/05/25ATabor Sežana Vs ND2-0
26/04/25HND Vs Slovan Ljubljana1-1
19/04/25HND Vs Bistrica0-4
13/04/25ATriglav Vs ND4-0
06/04/25HND Vs Rudar1-0
29/03/25ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs ND4-0
23/03/25HND Vs Beltinci2-1
16/03/25AGorica Vs ND3-0

TolminTolmin

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/05/25HTOL Vs Bistrica3-5
07/05/25ATriglav Vs TOL5-0
03/05/25HTOL Vs Rudar0-4
25/04/25ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs TOL1-0
18/04/25HTOL Vs Beltinci0-2
11/04/25AGorica Vs TOL2-0
05/04/25HTOL Vs Ilirija0-2
28/03/25AAluminij Vs TOL5-0
22/03/25HTOL Vs Dravinja0-5
15/03/25ADekani Vs TOL0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

NŠ Drava
NŠ Drava
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDL0.71
HomeWWLDD0.79
AwayLLLLL0.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%21%14%
AVG goals2.863.212.50
Over 1.5 %75%71%79%
Over 2.5 %57%57%57%
Over 3.5 %36%50%21%
Scored0.710.860.57
Conceded2.142.361.93
BTTS32%43%21%
Clean Sheet18%14%21%
Corners---
Cards---
Tolmin
Tolmin
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.92
HomeLLLLL1.08
AwayWLLLL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%28%16%
AVG goals2.722.722.72
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored0.981.120.84
Conceded1.741.601.88
BTTS48%48%48%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AluminijAluminij3064
67%
2.1
5928+31
2.9
83%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2122.00.9
-
2TriglavTriglav3063
67%
2.1
7233+39
3.5
80%
60%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.41.1
-
3GoricaGorica3059
57%
2.0
6034+26
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.1
-
4Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3055
53%
1.8
5831+27
3.0
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
5Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana3054
47%
1.8
5735+22
3.1
80%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.2
-
6BistricaBistrica3051
43%
1.7
6038+22
3.3
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.3
-
7DravinjaDravinja3045
43%
1.5
3736+1
2.4
63%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.2
-
8KrkaKrka3038
33%
1.3
2832-4
2.0
63%
37%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.1
-
9Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana3033
27%
1.1
3439-5
2.4
80%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
10BeltinciBeltinci3033
30%
1.1
4048-8
2.9
87%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.31.6
-
11BiljeBilje3033
27%
1.1
3545-10
2.7
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.5
-
12RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
2744-17
2.4
70%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.91.5
-
13DekaniDekani3032
30%
1.1
3256-24
2.9
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.9
-
14IlirijaIlirija3026
17%
0.9
2849-21
2.6
67%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.6
-
15TolminTolmin3022
20%
0.7
2662-36
2.9
77%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
16NŠ DravaNŠ Drava3020
17%
0.7
2265-43
2.9
77%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.2
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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