PythiaFootballBETA
Obolon'-Brovar's recent draw against Kudrivka has been a concerning trend for the team, as they struggle to find their footing at home. Despite averaging 1 goal scored and 2.44 conceded per match against stronger opponents, their overall defensive numbers are a cause for concern.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2.2 goals and the most likely score being 0-1, which has a 15.5% probability. The most likely total number of goals is 2.
The away side, LNZ Cherkasy, has shown improvement in their away form, scoring an average of 1.29 goals and conceding 1.14 per match against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is an Away win, with a 56% probability. The home win percentage is 16%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 56%. The model's suggested picks include an Under 3.5 total goals with an 82% probability and an Over 21.5 fouls with a 73.2% probability.
Obolon'-Brovar's win extends their run of inconsistent form, having drawn their last match and won the one before. The final score was 0-1, with LNZ Cherkasy securing the away win. The model's selection, the away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 56%. The model's call was vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy came out on top. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 82%. The other suggested picks, however, did not settle in the model's favour.
Obolon'-Brovar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.63 | 0.93 | 1.67 | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 0.79 | 2.16 | 1.00 | 2.44 | 0.60 | 1.90 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-6pp vs league) | |||||
LNZ Cherkasy| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 0.60 | 1.13 | 0.60 | 1.47 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 2.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.36 | 0.71 | 1.43 | 0.29 | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
| LNZ Cherkasy goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 16% | 13% | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 13% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Obolon'-BrovarLNZ CherkasyObolon'-Brovar| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 26.2 | 27.0 | 25.4 |
| vs Stronger (30) | 8.2 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 24.8 | 25.0 | 24.7 |
| vs Similar (20) | 10.1 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 28.8 | 30.0 | 27.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 39% | 40% | 38% | 36% | 42% | 31% | 89% | 93% | 85% |
| % under line | 61% | 60% | 62% | 64% | 58% | 69% | 11% | 7% | 15% |
LNZ Cherkasy| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 22.0 | 21.2 | 22.8 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 17.2 | 17.0 | 17.5 |
| vs Similar (16) | 11.1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 22.3 | 21.0 | 24.0 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 7.7 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| % over line | 46% | 50% | 43% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 54% | 50% | 57% |
| % under line | 54% | 50% | 57% | 68% | 68% | 68% | 46% | 50% | 43% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 10/05/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 09/11/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/05/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/10/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 15/10/22 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/08/22 | A | 0-0 |
Obolon'-Brovar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 2-1 |
LNZ Cherkasy| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 72 | 73% | 2.4 | 71 | 21 | +50 | 3.1 | 70% | 60% | 47% | 9.1 | 36% | 3.2 | 43% | 19.1 | 14% | 224 | 147 | 19 | 58 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 68% |
| 2 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 39 | 17 | +22 | 1.9 | 53% | 27% | 13% | 9.0 | 42% | 3.8 | 47% | 20.3 | 42% | 25 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 44% |
| 3 |  Polessya | 30 | 59 | 60% | 2.0 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 2.4 | 70% | 40% | 30% | 8.8 | 22% | 3.1 | 21% | 19.1 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 57% |
| 4 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 66 | 36 | +30 | 3.4 | 80% | 70% | 43% | 10.8 | 62% | 3.1 | 38% | 20.2 | 38% | 85 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 62% |
| 5 |  Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 51 | 43% | 1.7 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 1.8 | 57% | 23% | 17% | 11.3 | 65% | 3.6 | 41% | 22.1 | 53% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 56% |
| 6 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 49 | 43% | 1.6 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 1.8 | 57% | 27% | 13% | 7.9 | 35% | 4.2 | 65% | 26.5 | 88% | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 49% |
| 7 |  Kryvbas KR | 30 | 48 | 43% | 1.6 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 3.3 | 80% | 67% | 40% | 11.7 | 59% | 3.5 | 41% | 22.9 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 8 |  Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 46 | 40% | 1.5 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 2.6 | 73% | 53% | 33% | 10.6 | 62% | 3.2 | 38% | 22.4 | 50% | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 9 |  Karpaty | 30 | 41 | 33% | 1.4 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 2.4 | 67% | 40% | 27% | 8.7 | 31% | 4.4 | 56% | 23.6 | 69% | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 10 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 2.7 | 63% | 50% | 33% | 9.8 | 53% | 3.1 | 33% | 24.1 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 11 |  Veres Rivne | 30 | 31 | 23% | 1.0 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 2.2 | 63% | 33% | 23% | 10.5 | 58% | 3.3 | 42% | 22.7 | 58% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 12 |  Kudrivka | 32 | 30 | 22% | 0.9 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 2.6 | 75% | 50% | 34% | 9.4 | 40% | 3.8 | 50% | 25.1 | 80% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 29 | 28 | 21% | 1.0 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 31% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 65% | 26.8 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 42% |
| 14 |  Ruh Lviv | 30 | 21 | 20% | 0.7 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 2.4 | 67% | 50% | 13% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.6 | 53% | 27.6 | 87% | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 46% |
| 15 |  Oleksandria | 31 | 18 | 10% | 0.6 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 2.6 | 77% | 45% | 26% | 10.4 | 64% | 4.5 | 53% | 22.8 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 49% |
| 16 |  SK Poltava | 30 | 13 | 7% | 0.4 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 3.2 | 90% | 60% | 43% | 9.2 | 38% | 3.2 | 38% | 23.9 | 62% | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 40% |
| 17 |  Livyi Bereh | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | 26.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 18 |  Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 9.0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0% | 17.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 42% |