PythiaFootballBETA
This Jupiler Pro League match on May 23rd between OH Leuven and Genk is finely balanced, with recent form telling a contrasting story. OH Leuven has suffered three consecutive defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Club Brugge KV, while Genk has shown resilience, coming off a 3-2 win over KVC Westerlo.
The model predicts an away win for Genk, with a 40% chance of victory. However, the probabilities for a home win and a draw are 32% and 28% respectively. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely outcome being a 2-goal match. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.6%.
At home, OH Leuven has scored an average of 1.43 goals and conceded 0.71, while Genk has scored an average of 1.88 goals and conceded 1.88 when playing away against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a 75.5% chance of being correct and Under 3.5 with a 72.4% chance. The home win percentage is 32%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 40%.
The win extends OH Leuven's recent struggles, with three consecutive defeats, while Genk's recent form is marked by inconsistency. The final score of 0-2 validated the away team's success, as the actual result confirmed the model's prediction. The model correctly picked Genk's win, which had a pre-match probability of 40%. The model's selection of Genk's win proved correct. The suggested picks largely came in, with Over 1.5 goals hitting at 75.5% and Under 3.5 goals also hitting at 72.4%.
OH Leuven| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.36 | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.44 | 1.11 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.05 | 1.50 | 0.90 | 1.90 | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Genk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.07 | 1.60 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.80 | 0.60 | 1.29 | 1.86 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.56 | 1.56 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Genk goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 14% | 8.7% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
OH LeuvenGenkOH Leuven| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 25.2 | 25.6 | 24.9 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 10.8 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 25.5 | 24.3 | 26.6 |
| vs Similar (36) | 11.3 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 25.1 | 26.0 | 24.2 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 69% | 74% | 64% | 60% | 62% | 58% | 71% | 74% | 68% |
| % under line | 31% | 26% | 36% | 40% | 38% | 42% | 29% | 26% | 32% |
Genk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 22.3 | 22.7 | 21.8 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 9.5 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 22.9 | 23.5 | 22.3 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 10.0 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 21.8 | 22.1 | 21.4 |
| % over line | 50% | 65% | 32% | 44% | 39% | 50% | 56% | 58% | 55% |
| % under line | 50% | 35% | 68% | 56% | 61% | 50% | 44% | 42% | 45% |
OH Leuven| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.25 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.78 | 0.11 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
Genk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
OH Leuven| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.97 | 0.57 | 0.79 | 0.69 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.10 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Genk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.80 | 1.07 | 0.47 | 0.87 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.40 | 0.40 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 79.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 75.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 75.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 74.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 72.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 30/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 15/08/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/01/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/08/24 | H | 3-1 | |
| 31/01/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 12/11/23 | A | 3-1 | |
| 02/04/23 | A | 2-1 |
OH Leuven| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
Genk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 5-5 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Club Brugge KV | 40 | 88 | 70% | 2.2 | 91 | 45 | +46 | 3.4 | 78% | 65% | 35% | 11.0 | 68% | 3.9 | 49% | 20.9 | 45% | 274 | 130 | 65 | 79 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Union St. Gilloise | 40 | 86 | 62% | 2.1 | 66 | 27 | +39 | 2.3 | 70% | 40% | 20% | 9.4 | 55% | 4.9 | 71% | 21.6 | 52% | 163 | 59 | 69 | 35 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 3 |  St. Truiden | 40 | 71 | 55% | 1.8 | 61 | 46 | +15 | 2.7 | 80% | 55% | 25% | 10.2 | 68% | 4.0 | 54% | 21.4 | 52% | 53 | 29 | 10 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 4 | Genk | 41 | 60 | 37% | 1.5 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 54% | 15% | 9.8 | 49% | 3.8 | 50% | 22.2 | 54% | 182 | 106 | 20 | 56 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 5 |  Standard Liege | 40 | 57 | 40% | 1.4 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 2.2 | 72% | 45% | 12% | 10.0 | 45% | 4.5 | 68% | 22.3 | 52% | 57 | 16 | 9 | 32 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 44% |
| 6 |  Anderlecht | 40 | 55 | 38% | 1.4 | 59 | 62 | -3 | 3.0 | 75% | 52% | 45% | 10.5 | 70% | 5.3 | 72% | 24.6 | 78% | 126 | 46 | 38 | 42 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 53% |
| 7 |  Gent | 41 | 52 | 32% | 1.3 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 2.7 | 80% | 49% | 34% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.7 | 45% | 21.5 | 44% | 62 | 24 | 21 | 16 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 8 |  KVC Westerlo | 40 | 52 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.9 | 60% | 23.7 | 68% | 66 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Charleroi | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 50 | 50 | +0 | 2.5 | 78% | 40% | 22% | 10.7 | 57% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.1 | 55% | 44 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 10 |  KV Mechelen | 40 | 51 | 32% | 1.3 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 2.7 | 75% | 48% | 32% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.4 | 50% | 51 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 11 |  Zulte Waregem | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 53 | 53 | +0 | 2.9 | 81% | 53% | 36% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.6 | 39% | 23.1 | 61% | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 |  Antwerp | 40 | 48 | 32% | 1.2 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 2.3 | 72% | 40% | 15% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.5 | 60% | 24.6 | 75% | 97 | 17 | 24 | 57 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 49% |
| 13 |  Cercle Brugge | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 53 | 58 | -5 | 3.1 | 89% | 58% | 36% | 10.8 | 69% | 3.7 | 50% | 22.8 | 61% | 44 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 | OH Leuven | 40 | 40 | 25% | 1.0 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 2.5 | 75% | 45% | 25% | 11.1 | 68% | 5.1 | 68% | 25.6 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 15 |  RAAL La Louvière | 36 | 34 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 2.4 | 64% | 47% | 22% | 9.4 | 50% | 3.6 | 49% | 23.6 | 67% | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 16 |  Dender | 38 | 26 | 13% | 0.7 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 2.6 | 71% | 55% | 29% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 53% | 22.1 | 55% | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 48% |
| 17 |  Lommel United | 6 | 16 | 83% | 2.7 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.2 | 83% | 83% | 50% | 11.0 | 83% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.2 | 50% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 45% |
| 18 |  Beerschot VA | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.8 | 75% | 26.5 | 100% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 64% |
| 19 |  Patro Eisden | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 7.5 | 0% | 5.5 | 100% | 27.0 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 29% |
| 20 |  Liège | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.0 | 0% | 21.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 56% |