The model favours an away win, with Standard Liege’s 42% chance of triumph against OH Leuven’s 30% home advantage and a 28% draw probability. The expected total is 2.7 goals, centring on a 1-1 scoreline that carries a 13.4% probability. OH Leuven, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.89 goals scored and 1.89 conceded, while Standard Liege, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against comparable teams. The match’s shape suggests a modestly high-scoring affair, yet the most likely total remains 2 goals. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with a 3% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.9% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (95.3% with a 4% edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.2% with a 3% edge). The recent form notes that OH Leuven are after three straight defeats, while Standard Liege come off a win.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Standard Liege secured a 1-2 away win, extending their two-game winning streak after a solid home defeat by OH Leuven. The pre-match favourite was an away win with a 43% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The final score matched the favoured outcome, and the total of three goals fell just above the expected 2.7, yet the model’s suggested selections largely hit. Under 7.5 goals was a 99.5% hit, Under 6.5 a 98.4% hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals98.3% hit, Home under 3.5 goals97.9% hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals97.6% hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals97.1% hit, Under 5.595.3% hit, and Away under 2.5 2H goals95.2% hit. All selections were settled, confirming the model’s comprehensive accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
OH Leuven win✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 35.6% · @ 2.62
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.77
10Bet
2.75
Dafabet
2.70
SBO
2.65
Unibet
2.65
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 27.8% · @ 3.35
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.57
1xBet
3.46
Betano
3.40
Unibet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Standard Liege win✓ Hit
42.6%
Avg Implied 36.6% · @ 2.55
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.70
Betano
2.67
1xBet
2.65
Dafabet
2.60
BetVictor
2.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
OH Leuven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.57
0.87
1.60
1.13
1.53
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.58
0.83
1.17
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.06
1.56
0.89
1.89
1.22
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Standard Liege
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
0.87
1.20
1.80
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.83
1.00
0.33
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
1.36
1.23
0.83
1.42
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (OH Leuven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
@ 1.25+1.0%
Under 1.5
23.8%
@ 3.77-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.02
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
BetVictor
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.4%
@ 1.83-1.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.96+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.99
SBO
1.98
Betano
1.98
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.4%
@ 3.04-2.5%
Under 3.5
71.6%
@ 1.35+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.14
Betano
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Under
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
@ 1.65-0.9%
No
44.7%
@ 2.12+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Superbet
1.66
No
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Betfair
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.00+6.0%
1-2 ✓
9.0%@ 8.61+3.9%
0-1
8.9%@ 8.26+3.5%
0-0
8.0%@ 10.41+3.8%
0-2
7.5%@ 11.75+3.8%
2-1
7.3%@ 8.87+2.3%
1-0
6.9%@ 8.50+1.7%
2-2
5.4%@ 11.62+1.6%
OH Leuven goals ↓
Standard Liege goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
8.9%
7.5%
3.7%
1.4%
1
6.9%
13%
9.0%
4.5%
1.7%
2
4.9%
7.3%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.0%
2.9%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = OH Leuven goals (down), columns = Standard Liege goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lommel United
2.67
Club Brugge KV
2.20
Union St. Gilloise
2.15
St. Truiden
1.77
Genk
1.46
Standard Liege
1.43
Anderlecht
1.38
Zulte Waregem
1.33
KVC Westerlo
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.27
Charleroi
1.27
Gent
1.27
Antwerp
1.20
Kortrijk
1.16
Cercle Brugge
1.14
OH Leuven
1.00
SK Beveren
0.99
RAAL La Louvière
0.94
OH Leuven is 0.43 points worse than Standard Liege in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lommel United
2.33
Club Brugge KV
2.27
Union St. Gilloise
1.65
St. Truiden
1.52
Anderlecht
1.48
Zulte Waregem
1.47
Cercle Brugge
1.47
Genk
1.39
Gent
1.29
KVC Westerlo
1.25
Charleroi
1.25
Kortrijk
1.20
KV Mechelen
1.20
Standard Liege
1.10
Antwerp
1.07
OH Leuven
1.02
SK Beveren
1.02
RAAL La Louvière
0.97
OH Leuven is 0.08 goals worse than Standard Liege in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Union St. Gilloise
0.68
Lommel United
0.83
Club Brugge KV
1.12
Standard Liege
1.15
St. Truiden
1.15
Antwerp
1.20
Charleroi
1.25
Genk
1.29
RAAL La Louvière
1.39
Gent
1.39
KVC Westerlo
1.43
Zulte Waregem
1.47
OH Leuven
1.50
KV Mechelen
1.52
Anderlecht
1.55
Kortrijk
1.59
Cercle Brugge
1.61
SK Beveren
1.87
OH Leuven is 0.35 goals worse than Standard Liege in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Club Brugge KV
60%
Genk
58%
St. Truiden
55%
Anderlecht
53%
Union St. Gilloise
52%
Charleroi
50%
Antwerp
49%
KVC Westerlo
49%
KV Mechelen
49%
Gent
49%
Zulte Waregem
48%
Cercle Brugge
48%
OH Leuven
46%
Lommel United
45%
Standard Liege
44%
RAAL La Louvière
39%
OH Leuven is 1.5 percentage points better than Standard Liege in terms of average possession (46% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
OH Leuven
For 4.1 · Against 7.9 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 9.1 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Standard Liege
For 4.0 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 12.9 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
OH Leuven
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.4
10.8
4.4
4.4
4.4
25.3
25.6
25.0
vs Stronger (18)
11.7
11.8
11.6
4.6
3.9
5.5
25.1
24.3
26.0
vs Similar (31)
10.8
11.2
10.4
4.4
4.7
4.1
25.4
26.4
24.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
65%
71%
58%
60%
60%
60%
71%
75%
67%
% under line
35%
29%
42%
40%
40%
40%
29%
25%
33%
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Standard Liege
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.9
4.0
4.8
3.2
22.3
23.1
21.5
vs Stronger (10)
11.2
10.6
11.8
5.0
6.4
3.6
21.6
23.8
19.4
vs Similar (35)
9.9
10.4
9.4
3.9
4.5
3.4
22.4
23.1
21.7
vs Weaker (5)
8.0
7.5
9.0
2.4
3.5
1.7
23.3
21.0
28.0
% over line
46%
42%
50%
60%
75%
46%
54%
62%
46%
% under line
54%
58%
50%
40%
25%
54%
46%
38%
54%
This opponent (OH Leuven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
OH Leuven
11.1
Cercle Brugge
11.0
KVC Westerlo
10.6
Charleroi
10.6
Club Brugge KV
10.5
Anderlecht
10.4
Kortrijk
10.2
Gent
10.1
KV Mechelen
10.1
Standard Liege
10.1
Zulte Waregem
9.9
St. Truiden
9.9
SK Beveren
9.7
Lommel United
9.7
Genk
9.6
Union St. Gilloise
9.3
Antwerp
9.2
RAAL La Louvière
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Anderlecht
5.3
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
OH Leuven
4.7
SK Beveren
4.4
Standard Liege
4.3
Kortrijk
4.3
Antwerp
4.1
Lommel United
4.1
KV Mechelen
4.1
St. Truiden
4.0
Cercle Brugge
4.0
KVC Westerlo
4.0
Charleroi
3.9
RAAL La Louvière
3.9
Zulte Waregem
3.8
Genk
3.7
Gent
3.6
Club Brugge KV
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
OH Leuven
25.2
RAAL La Louvière
25.0
Anderlecht
24.9
Lommel United
24.2
Antwerp
24.0
Kortrijk
23.3
SK Beveren
23.3
KVC Westerlo
23.1
Cercle Brugge
22.9
Zulte Waregem
22.8
Standard Liege
22.4
Genk
22.2
KV Mechelen
22.0
Charleroi
21.8
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
St. Truiden
21.2
Gent
21.1
Club Brugge KV
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.4%
@ 1.59+4.3%
Under 9.5
37.6%
@ 2.21-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.30
Unibet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.3%
@ 1.47-5.6%
Under 3.5
42.7%
@ 2.48+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.49
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.65
Unibet
2.43
Superbet
2.37
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
56.8%
Under 21.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
OH Leuven or Draw✗ Miss
52.2%
Avg Implied 62.8% · @ 1.49
Edge
-10.6%
29%
28%
43%
covers OH Leuven + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.53
Unibet
1.52
SBO
1.51
Superbet
1.51
OH Leuven or Standard Liege✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.29
Edge
-0.3%
29%
28%
43%
covers OH Leuven + Standard Liege
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Draw or Standard Liege✓ Hit
75.7%
Avg Implied 64.8% · @ 1.44
Edge
+10.9%
29%
28%
43%
covers Draw + Standard Liege
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
OH Leuven over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.5%
@ 1.27-8.7%
Under
35.5%
@ 3.47+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.81
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
OH Leuven over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.7%
@ 2.32-12.4%
Under
72.3%
@ 1.56+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.43
10Bet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
BetVictor
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
OH Leuven over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 5.36-8.7%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.12+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
OH Leuven over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 12.42-5.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Standard Liege over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.6%
@ 1.26+4.8%
Under
21.4%
@ 3.54-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.75
Superbet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.55
Standard Liege over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.6%
@ 2.30+5.1%
Under
54.4%
@ 1.57-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.33
BetVictor
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
Superbet
1.59
Pinnacle
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Standard Liege over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.2%
@ 5.17+2.2%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.13-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
Superbet
5.00
Under
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Standard Liege over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 11.40-1.2%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to OH Leuven, so a minus line means OH Leuven give that many goals of a start and Standard Liege receive them. At -1, OH Leuven must win by two or more to land; a one-goal OH Leuven win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (OH Leuven)Actual: Standard Liege
OH Leuven -2
2.7%
@ 11.22-5.2%
Draw -2
6.7%
@ 7.04-5.9%
Standard Liege +2
90.6%
@ 1.12+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
7.10
Draw
Superbet
7.70
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
5.00
Away
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (OH Leuven)Actual: Standard Liege
OH Leuven -1
9.4%
@ 5.30-7.6%
Draw -1
14.8%
@ 4.28-6.2%
Standard Liege +1
75.7%
@ 1.45+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Handicap +1 (OH Leuven)Actual: Draw
OH Leuven +1
52.2%
@ 1.48-8.6%
Draw +1
22.7%
@ 4.23+1.4%
Standard Liege -1
25.1%
@ 5.04+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Handicap +2 (OH Leuven)Actual: OH Leuven
OH Leuven +2
74.9%
@ 1.13-3.7%
Draw +2
14.9%
@ 6.80+1.8%
Standard Liege -2
10.2%
@ 10.70+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.20
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
OH Leuven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.47
0.73
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.42
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.17
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.56
0.56
0.78
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Standard Liege
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.33
0.47
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.50
0.25
0.58
0.90
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (OH Leuven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.1%
@ 1.35+0.1%
Under 0.5
30.9%
@ 3.02-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.18
William Hil
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.66-1.5%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.44+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.75
Superbet
2.65
10Bet
2.65
Under
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
Betano
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 6.39-2.4%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.09+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
Under
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
OH Leuven over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
40.6%
@ 2.05-4.6%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.70+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
OH Leuven over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 6.42-5.7%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.08+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
OH Leuven over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 19.67-3.2%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Standard Liege over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
46.7%
@ 2.02+0.6%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.72-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.07
Unibet
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.77
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Standard Liege over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 6.29-2.9%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.08+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.75
Unibet
6.25
Betano
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
Standard Liege over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 17.67-3.1%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
OH Leuven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.07
0.40
0.87
0.53
1.27
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.17
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.83
vs Similar (18)
0.44
1.00
0.33
1.11
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Standard Liege) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Standard Liege
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.53
0.73
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.73
0.58
0.83
1.10
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (OH Leuven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.5%
@ 1.21+2.6%
Under 0.5
20.5%
@ 4.00-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Under
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.8%
@ 2.02+2.6%
Under 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.73-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.4%
@ 4.22-4.5%
Under 2.5
82.6%
@ 1.19+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Unibet
4.25
William Hil
4.20
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
OH Leuven over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.6%
@ 1.74-2.7%
Under
49.4%
@ 1.98+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
10Bet
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
OH Leuven over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.3%
@ 4.61-5.8%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.16+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
OH Leuven over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 12.25-4.8%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Standard Liege over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.2%
@ 1.72+0.2%
Under
45.8%
@ 2.02-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Under
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Standard Liege over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
21.0%
@ 4.54+0.6%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.16-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.85
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.30
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Standard Liege over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 11.58-3.3%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.3%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.6%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.09
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.8%
1.13
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.21
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.6%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.0%
1.40
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.34
-
-
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.7%
1.19
Betano
1.19
-
-
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.2%
1.25
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.7%
1.44
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
+10.9%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
75.7%
1.45
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
10Bet
1.42
+13.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
74.9%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.9%
1.34
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
72.3%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
BetVictor
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
+12.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.1%
1.29
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.6%
1.35
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betfair
1.36
+2.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
OH Leuven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Óscar Gil33%
Wouter George33%
William Balikwisha0%
Noë Dussenne0%
Ewoud Pletinckx0%
Kyan Vaesen0%
Łukasz Łakomy0%
D. van den Heuvel0%
C. Ikwuemesi0%
S. Yamada0%
D. Opoku0%
A. Traoré0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Óscar Gil33%
Wouter George33%
C. Ikwuemesi33%
A. Traoré33%
William Balikwisha0%
Noë Dussenne0%
Ewoud Pletinckx0%
Kyan Vaesen0%
Łukasz Łakomy0%
D. van den Heuvel0%
S. Yamada0%
D. Opoku0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Wouter George33%
C. Ikwuemesi33%
William Balikwisha0%
Noë Dussenne0%
Ewoud Pletinckx0%
Óscar Gil0%
Kyan Vaesen0%
Łukasz Łakomy0%
D. van den Heuvel0%
S. Yamada0%
D. Opoku0%
A. Traoré0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Óscar Gil67%
C. Ikwuemesi33%
William Balikwisha0%
Noë Dussenne0%
Ewoud Pletinckx0%
Kyan Vaesen0%
Łukasz Łakomy0%
Wouter George0%
D. van den Heuvel0%
S. Yamada0%
D. Opoku0%
A. Traoré0%
Standard Liege
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dennis Eckert Ayensa50%
Salieu Drammeh33%
Casper Nielsen25%
Adnane Abid25%
Bernard Nguene25%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Marlon Fossey0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Alexis Trouillet0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Matthieu Epolo0%
Gustav Mortensen0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Ryan Fosso0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matthieu Epolo50%
Ryan Fosso33%
Casper Nielsen25%
Alexis Trouillet25%
Gustav Mortensen25%
Adnane Abid25%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Dennis Eckert Ayensa0%
Marlon Fossey0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Salieu Drammeh0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Casper Nielsen50%
Adnane Abid50%
Marlon Fossey25%
Bernard Nguene25%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Dennis Eckert Ayensa0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Alexis Trouillet0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Matthieu Epolo0%
Gustav Mortensen0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Salieu Drammeh0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bernard Nguene75%
Salieu Drammeh33%
Dennis Eckert Ayensa25%
Adnane Abid25%
Casper Nielsen0%
Tobias Mohr0%
Ibrahim Karamoko0%
Marlon Fossey0%
Henry Lawrence0%
Alexis Trouillet0%
Ibe Hautekiet0%
Matthieu Epolo0%
Gustav Mortensen0%
Rayan Touzghar0%
Ryan Fosso0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
USG (26)
€98m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
CB (26)
€40m
KW (26)
€38m
ANT (24)
€33m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
LU (25)
€26m
RLL (30)
€23m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
OH Leuven's squad is €24m less valuable than Standard Liege's (€30m vs €54m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
USG (10)
€32m
CB (9)
€18m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
ANT (10)
€9m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
LU (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
RLL (10)
€6m
SB (9)
€4m
OH Leuven's attack is €7m less valuable than Standard Liege's (€7m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
USG (7)
€38m
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
LU (5)
€15m
ANT (4)
€10m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
RLL (7)
€6m
CB (6)
€5m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
OH Leuven's midfield is €2m less valuable than Standard Liege's (€6m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
USG (9)
€28m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CB (11)
€17m
ANT (10)
€14m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
RLL (13)
€11m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
LU (10)
€4m
OH Leuven's defence is €14m less valuable than Standard Liege's (€17m vs €31m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
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Charleroi
Gent
Union St. Gilloise
Club Brugge KV
Zulte Waregem
Genk
Lommel United
Antwerp
Anderlecht
St. Truiden
SK Beveren
Cercle Brugge
KV Mechelen
RAAL La Louvière
KVC Westerlo
Kortrijk