PythiaFootballBETA
This Ukraine Premier League match between Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh is finely balanced, with the home side on a two-game winning run, but the away team unbeaten in their last five matches. Oleksandria has a 29% chance of winning at home, while Livyi Bereh has a 40% chance of taking the three points. The model picks away win as the most likely result. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.5% probability. At home, Oleksandria has scored 0.6 goals per game and conceded 2.2, while Livyi Bereh has scored 1.33 goals per game and conceded 1.67 when playing away against similar opponents. The model's selection is Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.3% chance of hitting. The suggested picks include Under 3.5 (80.3%), Over 2.5 (not present), Both teams to score (not present), and Livyi Bereh to win (40%). Oleksandria has a 29% chance of winning, a 31% chance of drawing, and a 40% chance of losing.
The Draw between Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh was a major upset, as it snapped the home side's 2-game winning streak. The actual result was a 1-1 final score, contrary to the model's prediction of an Away win. The model's selection, Away win, had a 40% probability but ultimately proved incorrect. The model's suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, hit with an 80.3% probability. The model's call on the score was also off, with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw, but at a lower 14.5% probability.
Oleksandria| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.97 | 0.64 | 2.00 | 0.94 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 0.62 | 2.31 | 0.83 | 2.17 | 0.43 | 2.43 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.73 | 1.82 | 0.60 | 2.20 | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.33 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 3% (-29pp vs league) | |||||
Livyi Bereh| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 0.70 | 2.13 | 0.67 | 1.20 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.67 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 1.67 | 0.50 | 2.17 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Livyi Bereh goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 12% | 11% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 14% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
OleksandriaLivyi BerehOleksandria| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 22.8 | 22.2 | 23.2 |
| vs Stronger (21) | 8.4 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 20.9 | 19.6 | 23.0 |
| vs Similar (19) | 10.4 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 23.8 | 27.5 | 22.9 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 24.3 | 23.5 | 26.0 |
| % over line | 52% | 56% | 50% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 57% | 44% | 67% |
| % under line | 48% | 44% | 50% | 78% | 78% | 78% | 43% | 56% | 33% |
Livyi Bereh| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 27.7 | 30.0 | 25.4 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 9.8 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 25.8 | 29.0 | 22.5 |
| vs Similar (15) | 7.0 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 28.5 | 29.5 | 27.5 |
| vs Weaker (31) | 10.5 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 30.0 | 33.0 | 27.0 |
| % over line | 40% | 40% | 40% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| % under line | 60% | 60% | 60% | 90% | 92% | 88% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 2-0 |
Oleksandria| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 12/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 19/03/26 | H | 0-5 |
Livyi Bereh| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 72 | 73% | 2.4 | 71 | 21 | +50 | 3.1 | 70% | 60% | 47% | 9.1 | 36% | 3.2 | 43% | 19.1 | 14% | 224 | 147 | 19 | 58 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 68% |
| 2 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 39 | 17 | +22 | 1.9 | 53% | 27% | 13% | 9.0 | 42% | 3.8 | 47% | 20.3 | 42% | 25 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 44% |
| 3 |  Polessya | 30 | 59 | 60% | 2.0 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 2.4 | 70% | 40% | 30% | 8.8 | 22% | 3.1 | 21% | 19.1 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 57% |
| 4 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 66 | 36 | +30 | 3.4 | 80% | 70% | 43% | 10.8 | 62% | 3.1 | 38% | 20.2 | 38% | 85 | 31 | 24 | 30 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 62% |
| 5 |  Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 51 | 43% | 1.7 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 1.8 | 57% | 23% | 17% | 11.3 | 65% | 3.6 | 41% | 22.1 | 53% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 56% |
| 6 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 49 | 43% | 1.6 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 1.8 | 57% | 27% | 13% | 7.9 | 35% | 4.2 | 65% | 26.5 | 88% | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 49% |
| 7 |  Kryvbas KR | 30 | 48 | 43% | 1.6 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 3.3 | 80% | 67% | 40% | 11.7 | 59% | 3.5 | 41% | 22.9 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 8 |  Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 46 | 40% | 1.5 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 2.6 | 73% | 53% | 33% | 10.6 | 62% | 3.2 | 38% | 22.4 | 50% | 13 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 9 |  Karpaty | 30 | 41 | 33% | 1.4 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 2.4 | 67% | 40% | 27% | 8.7 | 31% | 4.4 | 56% | 23.6 | 69% | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 10 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 2.7 | 63% | 50% | 33% | 9.8 | 53% | 3.1 | 33% | 24.1 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 11 |  Veres Rivne | 30 | 31 | 23% | 1.0 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 2.2 | 63% | 33% | 23% | 10.5 | 58% | 3.3 | 42% | 22.7 | 58% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 12 |  Kudrivka | 32 | 30 | 22% | 0.9 | 34 | 50 | -16 | 2.6 | 75% | 50% | 34% | 9.4 | 40% | 3.8 | 50% | 25.1 | 80% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 29 | 28 | 21% | 1.0 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 31% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 65% | 26.8 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 42% |
| 14 |  Ruh Lviv | 30 | 21 | 20% | 0.7 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 2.4 | 67% | 50% | 13% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.6 | 53% | 27.6 | 87% | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 46% |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 31 | 18 | 10% | 0.6 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 2.6 | 77% | 45% | 26% | 10.4 | 64% | 4.5 | 53% | 22.8 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 49% |
| 16 |  SK Poltava | 30 | 13 | 7% | 0.4 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 3.2 | 90% | 60% | 43% | 9.2 | 38% | 3.2 | 38% | 23.9 | 62% | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 40% |
| 17 | Livyi Bereh | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 13.0 | 100% | 5.0 | 100% | 26.0 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 58% |
| 18 |  Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | +0 | 2.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 9.0 | 0% | 1.0 | 0% | 17.0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 42% |