Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring encounter. Opatija, having just secured a win, is set to keep the opposition at bay, while Sesvete, still recovering from two straight defeats, will likely struggle to breach the home defence. The model favours a home win, with a 43% chance, followed by a 31% draw and a 26% away win. The expected total goals sit at 2.2, and the most probable total is two goals, with a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.4% chance. Opatija averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.08 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Sesvete nets 1.1 and concedes 1.0 on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Under 5.5 (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.2%), Under 4.5 (92.7%) and Home +2 handicap (90.5%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Opatija win
42.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sesvete win
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Opatija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.07
1.27
0.93
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.12
1.38
1.08
0.77
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sesvete
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.90
1.59
0.65
1.15
1.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.38
0.73
1.56
0.56
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
2.00
2.00
2.00
1.33
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Opatija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.0%
Under 1.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
37.8%
Under 2.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.2%
Under 3.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.0%
No
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
12.7%
0-0
12.3%
0-1
9.0%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.8%
Opatija goals ↓
Sesvete goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.0%
4.8%
1.5%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.9%
8.3%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.8%
3.5%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Opatija goals (down), columns = Sesvete goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Opatija is 0.52 points worse than Sesvete in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Opatija is 0.33 goals worse than Sesvete in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Opatija is 0.30 goals worse than Sesvete in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Opatija or Draw
74.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
26%
covers Opatija + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Opatija or Sesvete
68.8%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
26%
covers Opatija + Sesvete
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sesvete
57.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
31%
26%
covers Draw + Sesvete
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Opatija over/under 0.5
Over
72.0%
Under
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 1.5
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 2.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 0.5
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 1.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 2.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Opatija, so a minus line means Opatija give that many goals of a start and Sesvete receive them. At -1, Opatija must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Opatija win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Opatija)
Opatija -2
7.0%
Draw -2
13.0%
Sesvete +2
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Opatija)
Opatija -1
20.0%
Draw -1
22.9%
Sesvete +1
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Opatija)
Opatija +1
74.1%
Draw +1
16.4%
Sesvete -1
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Opatija)
Opatija +2
90.5%
Draw +2
7.0%
Sesvete -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Opatija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.73
0.33
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.58
0.77
0.38
0.15
0.77
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sesvete
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.37
0.65
0.29
0.62
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.35
0.62
0.25
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Opatija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Opatija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Opatija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.54
0.62
0.69
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Sesvete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sesvete
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.94
0.35
0.54
0.77
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.77
0.38
0.94
0.31
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Opatija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Opatija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sesvete over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Opatija's squad is €1m less valuable than Sesvete's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Opatija and Sesvete have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Opatija and Sesvete have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Opatija and Sesvete have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Croatia Zmijavci
Mladost Ždralovi
Jadran LP
Dugopolje
HNK Cibalia
Orijent 1919
Segesta Sisak
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Vukovar
Karlovac 1919
Dinamo Zagreb U21
Kustosija
Dubrava Zagreb
Hrvace