Orijent 1919 are the clear favourites to win, with the model assigning a 51% chance of a home victory, 29% for a draw and 20% for a Bsk Bijelo Brdo win. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, with the most likely total being two goals, a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% chance. Orijent’s home form shows they average 2.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against similar opposition, while Bsk Bijelo Brdo, playing away, average just 0.64 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals carries a 79.1% probability. This match is expected to be tight, with Orijent’s offensive potency and Bsk’s defensive frailties setting the stage for a low-scoring encounter.
Results analysis
Orijent 1919’s recent run of draws and a win has kept their home form steady, while Bsk Bijelo Brdo’s recent defeat left them struggling on the road. The model’s favourite, a Home win at 51%, proved correct as Orijent edged a 1-0 victory. The predicted 2-goal total was not met, yet the model’s single selection, Under 3.5 at 79.1%, hit the mark. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 fell short, but the 1-0 result aligned with the model’s overall forecast. With the home side securing the win, the model’s predictions largely came through, confirming its accuracy for this encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Orijent 1919 win✓ Hit
51.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo win✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Orijent 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.67
1.86
1.07
1.12
2.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.75
1.79
2.18
1.27
1.38
2.23
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.03
1.57
0.71
0.75
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.92
1.73
0.73
0.64
1.07
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
2.00
5.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.1%
Under 1.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.5%
Under 2.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.9%
Under 3.5
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.5%
No
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0 ✓
13.2%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
6.9%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
5.1%
Orijent 1919 goals ↓
Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.9%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.1%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.4%
4.5%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orijent 1919 goals (down), columns = Bsk Bijelo Brdo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sibenik
2.48
Zrinski Jurjevac
2.45
Vukovar
1.76
Sesvete
1.27
Jarun
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Dugopolje
1.12
Orijent 1919
1.11
Croatia Zmijavci
1.09
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.03
Solin
0.73
Kustosija
0.00
Orijent 1919 is 0.08 points better than Bsk Bijelo Brdo in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sibenik
2.06
Vukovar
1.70
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.61
Croatia Zmijavci
1.18
Dugopolje
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Sesvete
1.09
Dubrava Zagreb
1.09
Orijent 1919
1.09
Jarun
1.06
Solin
1.00
Kustosija
1.00
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Orijent 1919 is 0.18 goals better than Bsk Bijelo Brdo in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sibenik
0.55
Zrinski Jurjevac
0.55
Vukovar
1.09
Sesvete
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Dugopolje
1.36
Jarun
1.39
Orijent 1919
1.43
Croatia Zmijavci
1.45
Solin
1.52
HNK Cibalia
1.73
Kustosija
2.00
Orijent 1919 is 0.10 goals worse than Bsk Bijelo Brdo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orijent 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.50
0.71
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.83
0.64
0.82
0.46
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.27
0.57
0.21
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.24
0.55
0.27
0.21
0.21
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Orijent 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.36
0.36
0.75
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
1.21
0.96
1.55
0.45
0.92
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Bsk Bijelo Brdo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
1.00
0.50
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.68
1.18
0.45
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bsk Bijelo Brdo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Orijent 1919 and Bsk Bijelo Brdo have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Orijent 1919 and Bsk Bijelo Brdo have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
Orijent 1919 and Bsk Bijelo Brdo have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Orijent 1919 and Bsk Bijelo Brdo have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sibenik
Zrinski Jurjevac
Vukovar
Sesvete
Jarun
Dubrava Zagreb
Dugopolje
HNK Cibalia
Croatia Zmijavci
Solin
Kustosija