Orijent 1919 are the clear favorites, with a 57% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Croatia Zmijavci win. The model expects an average of three goals, but the most likely total is two, a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.3% chance. Orijent’s home form shows they score 1.86 goals and concede 1.43 against teams of similar strength, while Croatia Zmijavci, on the road, average 0.83 goals scored and 2.33 conceded to similar opponents. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 with an 81.1% probability, and it notes the edge. Orijent’s recent five games read WLWLW and they are coming off a 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb U21, whereas Croatia Zmijavci are on a four-game winning streak, having beaten Dubrava Zagreb 2-1. The predicted outcome remains a home win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Orijent 1919, failed to deliver a win, ending the game in a 0-0 draw. The model had picked a home win with a 57% probability, but that call was wrong. The match also saw the model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 81.1%, miss its mark, as no goal was scored. Orijent had been coming off a win and had a recent form of WLWLW, while Croatia Zmijavci were on a four-game winning streak with a WW WW L record. The final score of 0-0 confirmed a draw, contradicting the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Orijent 1919 win✗ Miss
56.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci win✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Orijent 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.65
1.75
1.25
0.89
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.60
1.86
1.43
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
18% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Croatia Zmijavci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.06
1.71
1.22
1.44
0.88
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.85
1.29
1.43
0.83
2.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
12% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.6%
Under 2.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.2%
Under 3.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.0%
No
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.4%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
6.4%
3-0
6.0%
0-0 ✓
6.0%
1-2
5.4%
Orijent 1919 goals ↓
Croatia Zmijavci goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
4.3%
2.8%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.6%
11%
5.4%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.4%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.0%
6.4%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.9%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orijent 1919 goals (down), columns = Croatia Zmijavci goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vukovar
1.91
Rudes
1.85
HNK Cibalia
1.64
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.50
Jarun
1.33
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.33
Croatia Zmijavci
1.30
Solin
1.30
Orijent 1919
1.30
Dubrava Zagreb
1.27
Dugopolje
1.24
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
0.76
Orijent 1919 and Croatia Zmijavci are level in average points per game (both 1.30).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vukovar
1.73
Rudes
1.61
Solin
1.42
Orijent 1919
1.36
Jarun
1.30
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.24
Dubrava Zagreb
1.15
HNK Cibalia
1.12
Croatia Zmijavci
1.12
Kustosija
1.06
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.00
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
0.91
Orijent 1919 is 0.24 goals better than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vukovar
0.76
HNK Cibalia
0.79
Rudes
0.82
Zrinski Jurjevac
1.00
Dugopolje
1.06
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.12
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Croatia Zmijavci
1.33
Orijent 1919
1.36
Kustosija
1.49
Solin
1.67
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.70
Jarun
1.73
Orijent 1919 is 0.03 goals worse than Croatia Zmijavci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.36 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orijent 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.88
0.50
0.11
1.44
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.87
0.86
0.57
0.12
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Croatia Zmijavci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.56
1.22
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
1.00
0.57
1.14
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
24% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Orijent 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.82
0.65
0.88
0.75
0.78
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.73
1.00
0.86
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Croatia Zmijavci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Croatia Zmijavci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.59
0.71
0.67
0.22
0.50
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.85
0.71
0.29
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
59% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Croatia Zmijavci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (27)
€5m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
Orijent 1919 and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (13)
€3m
VUK (6)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Orijent 1919 and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (3)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
Orijent 1919 and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUD (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
Orijent 1919 and Croatia Zmijavci have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vukovar
Rudes
HNK Cibalia
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Jarun
Solin
Dubrava Zagreb
Dugopolje
Kustosija
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Zrinski Jurjevac
Inter Zaprešić