Orijent 1919’s defensive record at home shows they concede just one goal per match while scoring a little over one, a solid base for a tight affair. Opatija, on the road, averages 0.64 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opposition, suggesting they will struggle to breach the hosts’ back line. The model favours a home win, with a 44 % chance, a draw at 31 % and an away victory at 25 %. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a low-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3 % probability. Recent form hints at a cautious start: Orijent comes off a loss, while Opatija is riding a draw. The model’s selections lean heavily on low totals: Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7 %), Under 5.5 (97.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.9 %), Away under 2.5 goals (93.9 %), Under 4.5 (93.1 %) and a Home +2 handicap (91.3 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Orijent 1919 win
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Opatija win
21.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Orijent 1919
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.23
1.29
0.93
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
1.23
1.29
0.93
0.88
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Opatija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Opatija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.07
1.27
0.93
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.08
1.12
1.38
1.08
0.77
1.15
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.9%
Under 1.5
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.9%
Under 2.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.9%
Under 3.5
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.1%
No
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
13.7%
0-0
11.8%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.9%
Orijent 1919 goals ↓
Opatija goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
7.6%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.2%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
8.8%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.9%
4.1%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Orijent 1919 goals (down), columns = Opatija goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
HNK Cibalia
1.76
Sesvete
1.73
Vukovar
1.68
Dugopolje
1.64
Dubrava Zagreb
1.42
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.39
Segesta Sisak
1.38
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.27
Karlovac 1919
1.27
Opatija
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.15
Jadran LP
1.14
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Kustosija
1.02
Mladost Ždralovi
0.51
Orijent 1919 is 0.06 points worse than Opatija in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
HNK Cibalia
1.55
Vukovar
1.43
Sesvete
1.27
Dugopolje
1.21
Karlovac 1919
1.21
Orijent 1919
1.21
Dubrava Zagreb
1.18
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.18
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Hrvace
1.09
Croatia Zmijavci
0.97
Jadran LP
0.97
Opatija
0.94
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Kustosija
0.86
Mladost Ždralovi
0.43
Orijent 1919 is 0.27 goals better than Opatija in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sesvete
0.85
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.91
Vukovar
0.96
HNK Cibalia
1.00
Dugopolje
1.15
Opatija
1.15
Dinamo Zagreb U21
1.17
Segesta Sisak
1.17
Orijent 1919
1.24
Karlovac 1919
1.36
Dubrava Zagreb
1.39
Croatia Zmijavci
1.39
Jadran LP
1.42
Hrvace
1.45
Kustosija
1.59
Mladost Ždralovi
3.18
Orijent 1919 is 0.09 goals worse than Opatija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Orijent 1919 or Draw
78.9%
Avg Implied -
49%
30%
21%
covers Orijent 1919 + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 or Opatija
70.2%
Avg Implied -
49%
30%
21%
covers Orijent 1919 + Opatija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Opatija
50.8%
Avg Implied -
49%
30%
21%
covers Draw + Opatija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5
Over
75.5%
Under
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5
Over
41.1%
Under
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 0.5
Over
56.7%
Under
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 1.5
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 2.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Orijent 1919, so a minus line means Orijent 1919 give that many goals of a start and Opatija receive them. At -1, Orijent 1919 must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Orijent 1919 win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Orijent 1919)
Orijent 1919 -2
9.5%
Draw -2
15.3%
Opatija +2
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Orijent 1919)
Orijent 1919 -1
24.8%
Draw -1
24.4%
Opatija +1
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Orijent 1919)
Orijent 1919 +1
78.9%
Draw +1
14.0%
Opatija -1
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Orijent 1919)
Orijent 1919 +2
92.9%
Draw +2
5.4%
Opatija -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Orijent 1919
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.57
0.43
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.57
0.57
0.43
0.44
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Opatija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Opatija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.73
0.33
0.27
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.58
0.77
0.38
0.15
0.77
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Orijent 1919
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.71
0.50
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.57
0.67
0.71
0.50
0.44
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Opatija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Opatija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.54
0.62
0.69
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Orijent 1919) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Orijent 1919 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Orijent 1919 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Opatija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (26)
€4m
SES (22)
€3m
VUK (13)
€2m
DUG (22)
€2m
OPA (22)
€2m
BBB (18)
€2m
DZ (15)
€2m
O1 (19)
€2m
HRV (20)
€2m
KUS (12)
€2m
JL (9)
€2m
CZ (14)
€2m
HC (19)
€2m
DZU (2)
€1m
MŽ (4)
€0m
Orijent 1919 and Opatija have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
K1 (10)
€2m
VUK (6)
€1m
HRV (8)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
O1 (4)
€1m
SES (7)
€1m
DUG (10)
€1m
BBB (7)
€1m
CZ (7)
€1m
KUS (3)
€1m
DZU (1)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
MŽ (4)
€0m
OPA (7)
€0m
DZ (4)
€0m
Orijent 1919 and Opatija have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (4)
€1m
DZ (3)
€1m
DUG (4)
€1m
OPA (5)
€1m
K1 (5)
€0m
HC (6)
€0m
BBB (2)
€0m
KUS (2)
€0m
VUK (2)
€0m
CZ (2)
€0m
DZU (1)
€0m
O1 (2)
€0m
HRV (3)
€0m
JL (1)
€0m
MŽ (0)
€0m
Orijent 1919 and Opatija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SES (11)
€2m
OPA (10)
€1m
O1 (13)
€1m
DZ (8)
€1m
HRV (9)
€1m
KUS (7)
€1m
BBB (9)
€1m
VUK (5)
€1m
K1 (11)
€1m
DUG (8)
€1m
CZ (5)
€1m
HC (7)
€1m
JL (4)
€1m
MŽ (0)
€0m
DZU (0)
€0m
Orijent 1919 and Opatija have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Croatia: First NL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: First NL stats & trends →