The encounter between Oțelul and Argeș Pitesti is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 38 % for Oțelul, 31 % for a draw and 31 % for Argeș Pitesti, making the home side the slight favourite. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 14.6 % chance. Oțelul, playing at home against a similarly-rated opponent, averages 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, while Argeș Pitesti, on the road, averages 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 % with a 1 % edge), Under 5.5 (97.0 % with a 1 % edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.0 % with a 4 % edge). Both teams are coming off mixed recent form, with Oțelul recently defeated 1-5 and Argeș Pitesti drawing 1-1.
Results analysis
Oțelul’s recent win over Argeș Pitesti extended their good run, and the Pythia model’s favourite, a home win with a 38 % probability, proved correct as Oțelul triumphed 1-0. The model’s predicted total of 2.3 goals was close to the actual 1-0 score, and the most likely score of 1-1 was not reached. Every suggested pick settled in favour of the model: Under 7.5 (99.7 %) hit, Under 6.5 (99.1 %) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5 %) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6 %) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6 %) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 %) hit, Under 5.5 (97.0 %) hit, and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.0 %) hit. All selections performed as predicted, confirming the model’s accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Oţelul win✓ Hit
37.5%
Avg Implied 36.8% · @ 2.51
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.74
Superbet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.60
1xBet
2.59
Dafabet
2.55
Draw✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied 32.9% · @ 2.80
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.92
BetVictor
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Dafabet
2.85
Arges Pitesti win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied 30.2% · @ 3.05
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.35
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Superbet
3.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Oţelul
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.50
1.79
1.36
0.94
1.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.00
1.33
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.50
1.41
1.90
1.10
1.17
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arges Pitesti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arges Pitesti
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
0.88
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.33
0.67
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.90
0.92
0.67
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Oţelul) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.1%
@ 1.48+4.8%
Under 1.5
31.9%
@ 2.56-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.51
888Sport
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.69
Unibet
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.62
Superbet
2.57
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.2%
@ 2.48+2.6%
Under 2.5
59.8%
@ 1.49-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.62
888Sport
2.60
Pinnacle
2.59
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.51
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.9%
@ 4.72+0.1%
Under 3.5
80.1%
@ 1.17-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
@ 2.03+2.0%
No
52.2%
@ 1.72-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.15
888Sport
2.10
Bet365
2.10
William Hil
2.10
BetVictor
2.05
No
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.41+6.4%
0-0
11.4%@ 6.25+4.3%
1-0 ✓
10.9%@ 6.21+3.7%
0-1
9.6%@ 6.98+3.3%
2-1
8.0%@ 9.45+3.3%
2-0
7.4%@ 10.44+3.1%
1-2
7.2%@ 10.66+3.0%
0-2
6.0%@ 13.40+2.6%
Oţelul goals ↓
Arges Pitesti goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.6%
6.0%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.4%
8.0%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.0%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oţelul goals (down), columns = Arges Pitesti goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Bucuresti
2.00
Rapid
1.71
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.71
Universitatea Craiova
1.57
FCSB
1.57
Universitatea Cluj
1.50
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.50
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.43
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.43
Farul Constanta
1.43
Oţelul
1.43
Arges Pitesti
1.43
FC Botosani
1.00
Uta Arad
0.86
FC Voluntari
0.71
Csikszereda
0.14
Oţelul and Arges Pitesti are level in average points per game (both 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Universitatea Craiova
2.00
Dinamo Bucuresti
2.00
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.83
Universitatea Cluj
1.50
FCSB
1.43
Farul Constanta
1.43
Oţelul
1.29
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.14
Rapid
1.14
FC Voluntari
1.00
FC Botosani
1.00
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.00
Uta Arad
0.86
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.57
Csikszereda
0.57
Arges Pitesti
0.57
Oţelul is 0.71 goals better than Arges Pitesti in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 0.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.43
Corvinul Hunedoara
0.57
Rapid
0.57
Dinamo Bucuresti
0.71
Arges Pitesti
0.71
FC Botosani
1.14
FCSB
1.14
Farul Constanta
1.14
Oţelul
1.14
Universitatea Craiova
1.29
Uta Arad
1.43
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.43
Universitatea Cluj
1.50
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.67
Csikszereda
1.86
FC Voluntari
2.57
Oţelul is 0.43 goals worse than Arges Pitesti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Universitatea Craiova
60%
FCSB
58%
Universitatea Cluj
57%
Dinamo Bucuresti
56%
Oţelul
55%
CFR 1907 Cluj
55%
FC Botosani
53%
Rapid
50%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
49%
Farul Constanta
48%
Uta Arad
46%
Corvinul Hunedoara
44%
Arges Pitesti
44%
Petrolul Ploiesti
42%
Csikszereda
42%
FC Voluntari
41%
Oţelul is 11.0 percentage points better than Arges Pitesti in terms of average possession (55% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Oţelul
For 4.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arges Pitesti
For 3.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 10.8 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oţelul
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.6
9.2
4.1
4.8
3.4
26.8
27.3
26.4
vs Stronger (9)
8.0
8.8
7.0
5.1
5.2
5.0
25.6
23.4
28.2
vs Similar (38)
10.0
10.1
9.9
3.8
4.6
3.1
27.2
27.7
26.7
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
7.0
7.0
4.7
5.5
3.0
26.7
33.5
13.0
% over line
43%
46%
41%
54%
67%
42%
85%
88%
82%
% under line
57%
54%
59%
46%
33%
58%
15%
12%
18%
This opponent (Arges Pitesti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arges Pitesti
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.8
10.1
4.2
4.4
3.9
25.0
24.5
25.5
vs Stronger (12)
10.8
9.0
12.1
5.2
5.2
5.1
25.2
27.4
23.6
vs Similar (33)
9.0
8.9
9.2
4.1
4.4
3.6
24.8
23.5
26.4
vs Weaker (5)
8.0
7.0
9.0
2.4
2.5
2.3
26.5
27.0
26.0
% over line
48%
41%
55%
56%
56%
56%
70%
68%
73%
% under line
52%
59%
45%
44%
44%
44%
30%
32%
27%
This opponent (Oţelul) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FCSB
10.4
Rapid
10.1
Universitatea Cluj
10.0
Farul Constanta
9.9
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
9.7
FC Botosani
9.7
Uta Arad
9.6
Oţelul
9.5
Petrolul Ploiesti
9.5
Dinamo Bucuresti
9.4
Arges Pitesti
9.3
Universitatea Craiova
8.9
CFR 1907 Cluj
8.8
Csikszereda
8.8
FC Voluntari
8.5
Corvinul Hunedoara
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arges Pitesti
5.1
Universitatea Craiova
5.0
FCSB
4.9
FC Botosani
4.9
Petrolul Ploiesti
4.8
Dinamo Bucuresti
4.7
Corvinul Hunedoara
4.7
Uta Arad
4.6
FC Voluntari
4.6
Rapid
4.5
Oţelul
4.5
Csikszereda
4.5
Farul Constanta
4.3
Universitatea Cluj
4.3
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
4.3
CFR 1907 Cluj
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Oţelul
26.9
FC Botosani
26.3
Arges Pitesti
25.6
Petrolul Ploiesti
25.4
Corvinul Hunedoara
25.0
FCSB
24.8
Csikszereda
24.7
Uta Arad
24.2
Universitatea Craiova
24.1
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
23.8
Dinamo Bucuresti
23.7
Rapid
23.7
FC Voluntari
23.5
Farul Constanta
23.1
CFR 1907 Cluj
22.6
Universitatea Cluj
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.1%
@ 1.91+0.5%
Under 9.5
50.9%
@ 1.81-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.89
Under
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
72.0%
@ 1.47+9.3%
Under 3.5
28.0%
@ 2.47-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.47
Under
Superbet
2.47
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
76.5%
Under 21.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Oţelul or Draw✓ Hit
68.5%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.34
Edge
-1.2%
38%
31%
32%
covers Oţelul + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Oţelul or Arges Pitesti✓ Hit
69.0%
Avg Implied 67.7% · @ 1.38
Edge
+1.3%
38%
31%
32%
covers Oţelul + Arges Pitesti
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Draw or Arges Pitesti✗ Miss
62.5%
Avg Implied 62.7% · @ 1.49
Edge
-0.2%
38%
31%
32%
covers Draw + Arges Pitesti
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
SBO
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Oţelul over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.1%
@ 1.37+2.2%
Under
29.9%
@ 2.90-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
888Sport
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
Betano
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Oţelul over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.0%
@ 2.82+1.0%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.39-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.01
888Sport
3.00
Superbet
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Oţelul over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 7.11-0.9%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.07+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
8.00
Superbet
7.80
1xBet
7.60
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
Oţelul over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 20.19-1.3%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Arges Pitesti over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.3%
@ 1.46+2.7%
Under
33.7%
@ 2.55-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Superbet
2.57
BetVictor
2.55
Unibet
2.55
Arges Pitesti over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.6%
@ 3.30+1.3%
Under
70.4%
@ 1.30-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
Superbet
3.45
Betano
3.35
10Bet
3.35
Under
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Arges Pitesti over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 9.29-0.4%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.05+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
888Sport
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.40
1xBet
9.30
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Arges Pitesti over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 23.50-1.6%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Oţelul, so a minus line means Oţelul give that many goals of a start and Arges Pitesti receive them. At -1, Oţelul must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Oţelul win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Oţelul)Actual: Arges Pitesti
Oţelul -2
5.6%
@ 12.00-1.9%
Draw -2
11.1%
@ 6.82-1.9%
Arges Pitesti +2
83.3%
@ 1.12+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Oţelul)Actual: Draw
Oţelul -1
16.7%
@ 5.32-0.2%
Draw -1
20.8%
@ 3.87-2.4%
Arges Pitesti +1
62.5%
@ 1.50+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Away
10Bet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.51
Unibet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.44
Handicap +1 (Oţelul)Actual: Oţelul
Oţelul +1
68.5%
@ 1.33+1.2%
Draw +1
18.6%
@ 4.50-1.4%
Arges Pitesti -1
12.9%
@ 7.03+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Unibet
4.35
Away
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
Handicap +2 (Oţelul)Actual: Oţelul
Oţelul +2
87.1%
@ 1.07+1.4%
Draw +2
9.0%
@ 9.50-0.6%
Arges Pitesti -2
3.9%
@ 19.67-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
8.50
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Unibet
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oţelul
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.79
0.57
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.17
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.55
0.90
0.40
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Arges Pitesti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arges Pitesti
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.23
0.44
0.19
0.29
0.29
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.20
0.42
0.17
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Oţelul) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.1%
@ 1.54+7.6%
Under 0.5
31.9%
@ 2.36-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
Under
William Hil
2.50
Pinnacle
2.45
Unibet
2.43
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.1%
@ 3.47+3.3%
Under 1.5
69.9%
@ 1.27-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Betano
3.65
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.40
Under
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.4%
@ 9.34-0.6%
Under 2.5
90.6%
@ 1.03+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
William Hil
10.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
8.60
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.02
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oţelul over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.7%
@ 2.28+5.0%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.56-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.27
Under
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Oţelul over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 7.66-0.6%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.05+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
7.70
10Bet
7.50
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Oţelul over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 29.00-97.6%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Arges Pitesti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.9%
@ 2.51+1.9%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.47-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.60
1xBet
2.53
Superbet
2.52
Marathonbet
2.51
Under
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.49
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Arges Pitesti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 8.76-0.1%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.04+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.20
Superbet
8.80
Betano
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Under
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Arges Pitesti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 37.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
37.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oţelul
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
1.00
0.79
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.67
1.33
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.86
1.00
0.70
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arges Pitesti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arges Pitesti
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.44
0.56
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.29
0.00
0.33
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Oţelul) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.1%
@ 1.35+6.3%
Under 0.5
24.9%
@ 2.98-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
3.10
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
1xBet
2.99
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.3%
@ 2.59+4.4%
Under 1.5
59.7%
@ 1.45-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.77
888Sport
2.70
William Hil
2.70
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 6.23-0.6%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.10+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.90
888Sport
6.50
William Hil
6.50
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oţelul over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.6%
@ 1.88+0.6%
Under
50.4%
@ 1.81-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.88
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.76
Oţelul over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 5.47-1.6%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.12+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.60
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Oţelul over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 15.92-3.0%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Arges Pitesti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.3%
@ 2.08+2.8%
Under
52.7%
@ 1.67-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Arges Pitesti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 6.53-0.9%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.08+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.60
1xBet
6.45
Marathonbet
6.40
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Arges Pitesti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 17.75-3.0%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.02
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.3%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.8%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
87.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
10Bet
1.06
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.6%
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
888Sport
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.1%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.17
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.1%
1.35
Superbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.35
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.1%
1.28
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.0%
1.47
Superbet
1.47
-
-
-
-
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.4%
1.30
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.1%
1.37
Superbet
1.42
888Sport
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
+2.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oţelul
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Patrick Fernandes57%
João Lameira29%
Teodor Lungu17%
Pedro Nuno14%
Andrézinho14%
Milen Zhelev0%
Giannis Christopoulos0%
Cosmin Dur-Bozoancă0%
Andrei Ciobanu0%
Paul Iacob0%
Miguel Silva0%
João Paulino0%
Cristian Neicu0%
Matei Frunză0%
Kazu0%
Habib Sylla0%
Denis Bordun0%
Alexandru Bălănică0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Teodor Lungu33%
Alexandru Bălănică33%
João Lameira29%
João Paulino25%
Habib Sylla17%
Andrézinho14%
Milen Zhelev0%
Giannis Christopoulos0%
Pedro Nuno0%
Patrick Fernandes0%
Cosmin Dur-Bozoancă0%
Andrei Ciobanu0%
Paul Iacob0%
Miguel Silva0%
Cristian Neicu0%
Matei Frunză0%
Kazu0%
Denis Bordun0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pedro Nuno57%
Andrei Ciobanu14%
Andrézinho14%
Milen Zhelev0%
Giannis Christopoulos0%
Patrick Fernandes0%
João Lameira0%
Cosmin Dur-Bozoancă0%
Paul Iacob0%
Miguel Silva0%
Teodor Lungu0%
João Paulino0%
Cristian Neicu0%
Matei Frunză0%
Kazu0%
Habib Sylla0%
Denis Bordun0%
Alexandru Bălănică0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pedro Nuno29%
Andrézinho14%
Milen Zhelev0%
Giannis Christopoulos0%
Patrick Fernandes0%
João Lameira0%
Cosmin Dur-Bozoancă0%
Andrei Ciobanu0%
Paul Iacob0%
Miguel Silva0%
Teodor Lungu0%
João Paulino0%
Cristian Neicu0%
Matei Frunză0%
Kazu0%
Habib Sylla0%
Denis Bordun0%
Alexandru Bălănică0%
Arges Pitesti
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Moldoveanu43%
Y. Pîrvu14%
Oluwatobiloba Alagbe0%
V. Raţă0%
Florin Borța0%
I. Rădescu0%
Silviu Balaure0%
C. Căbuz0%
Dorinel Oancea0%
Costinel Tofan0%
L. Sadriu0%
Ricardo Matos0%
C. Micovschi0%
T. Luvambo0%
Rober Sierra0%
Guilherme Garutti0%
Mario Tudose0%
P. Dulcea0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
T. Luvambo50%
L. Sadriu40%
Costinel Tofan33%
V. Raţă29%
Silviu Balaure20%
Dorinel Oancea20%
I. Rădescu17%
Rober Sierra17%
Mario Tudose17%
Florin Borța14%
Robert Moldoveanu14%
Oluwatobiloba Alagbe0%
C. Căbuz0%
Ricardo Matos0%
C. Micovschi0%
Guilherme Garutti0%
Y. Pîrvu0%
P. Dulcea0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dorinel Oancea20%
T. Luvambo17%
Oluwatobiloba Alagbe0%
V. Raţă0%
Florin Borța0%
Robert Moldoveanu0%
I. Rădescu0%
Silviu Balaure0%
C. Căbuz0%
Costinel Tofan0%
L. Sadriu0%
Ricardo Matos0%
C. Micovschi0%
Rober Sierra0%
Guilherme Garutti0%
Mario Tudose0%
Y. Pîrvu0%
P. Dulcea0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
T. Luvambo33%
I. Rădescu17%
Florin Borța14%
Robert Moldoveanu14%
Oluwatobiloba Alagbe0%
V. Raţă0%
Silviu Balaure0%
C. Căbuz0%
Dorinel Oancea0%
Costinel Tofan0%
L. Sadriu0%
Ricardo Matos0%
C. Micovschi0%
Rober Sierra0%
Guilherme Garutti0%
Mario Tudose0%
Y. Pîrvu0%
P. Dulcea0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UC (25)
€37m
RAP (31)
€30m
FCS (27)
€26m
DB (26)
€20m
UC (26)
€17m
C1C (22)
€14m
AP (26)
€13m
FC (32)
€11m
FB (25)
€9m
UA (21)
€8m
OŢE (20)
€7m
CH (24)
€7m
CSI (25)
€6m
SOS (31)
€6m
PP (20)
€6m
FV (24)
€6m
Oţelul's squad is €6m less valuable than Arges Pitesti's (€7m vs €13m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UC (10)
€14m
RAP (13)
€14m
FCS (9)
€12m
C1C (6)
€8m
DB (10)
€8m
UC (8)
€7m
FC (10)
€4m
FB (8)
€4m
AP (11)
€4m
UA (8)
€4m
CH (12)
€3m
OŢE (8)
€2m
SOS (12)
€2m
CSI (12)
€2m
FV (11)
€2m
PP (5)
€1m
Oţelul's attack is €2m less valuable than Arges Pitesti's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UC (6)
€10m
DB (4)
€5m
UC (6)
€4m
FCS (5)
€4m
RAP (4)
€3m
AP (6)
€3m
FC (7)
€2m
C1C (5)
€2m
PP (7)
€2m
FB (5)
€2m
CSI (4)
€1m
SOS (7)
€1m
OŢE (2)
€1m
UA (3)
€1m
CH (2)
€1m
FV (2)
€1m
Oţelul's midfield is €2m less valuable than Arges Pitesti's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UC (9)
€13m
RAP (14)
€12m
FCS (13)
€11m
DB (12)
€7m
AP (9)
€6m
UC (12)
€5m
FC (15)
€4m
OŢE (10)
€4m
C1C (11)
€4m
UA (10)
€4m
FB (12)
€3m
CH (10)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
PP (8)
€3m
CSI (9)
€3m
SOS (12)
€2m
Oţelul's defence is €2m less valuable than Arges Pitesti's (€4m vs €6m).
Romania: Liga I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga I stats & trends →
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Dinamo Bucuresti
Rapid
Petrolul Ploiesti
Universitatea Craiova
FCSB
Corvinul Hunedoara
Farul Constanta
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
CFR 1907 Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FC Botosani
Uta Arad
FC Voluntari
Csikszereda