The encounter between Padova and Hellas Verona feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win. Home win stands at 31%, a draw at 31%, and the away side at 37%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. Padova, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Hellas Verona, on the road, will face a similar defensive challenge. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.8%), Under 6.5 goals (99.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.5% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.0% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 goals (97.9% with a 3% edge), and Over 19.5 fouls (97.6%). Padova’s recent three-game winning streak contrasts with Hellas Verona’s two-defeat slump, adding further intrigue to this tightly balanced match.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Hellas Verona, fell short, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. Padova’s recent form, a draw after a string of wins, and Verona’s own draw-heavy run set the stage for a tight encounter. The model had assigned a 36% chance to an away win, but the result was a stalemate. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.8%, Under 6.5 at 99.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Under 5.5 at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7% and Over 19.5 fouls at 97.5%. The match delivered a low-scoring, high-foul spectacle that matched the model’s cautious expectations.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Padova win✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied 32.7% · @ 2.85
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.96
Dafabet
2.95
Unibet
2.95
Superbet
2.92
Betano
2.92
Draw✓ Hit
31.4%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.06
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.14
BetVictor
3.13
Bet365
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Hellas Verona win✗ Miss
36.4%
Avg Implied 36.9% · @ 2.52
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.65
Betano
2.62
Dafabet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Padova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.27
1.00
1.07
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.55
0.83
1.67
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.11
1.11
0.67
1.20
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hellas Verona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hellas Verona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.63
0.62
1.62
0.79
1.64
vs Stronger (16)
0.94
1.50
0.78
1.56
1.14
1.43
vs Similar (13)
0.38
1.77
0.33
1.67
0.43
1.86
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.9%
@ 1.37-1.3%
Under 1.5
33.1%
@ 2.95+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.39
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.10
BetVictor
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
Marathonbet
2.94
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.9%
@ 2.19-4.2%
Under 2.5
61.1%
@ 1.66+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.36
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.18
Under
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.70
BetVictor
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.9%
@ 3.97-4.6%
Under 3.5
81.1%
@ 1.23+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.8%
@ 1.85-3.6%
No
53.2%
@ 1.87+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
No
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.7%@ 5.60+6.7%
0-0
11.9%@ 7.54+6.0%
0-1
11.0%@ 6.93+4.6%
1-0
10.1%@ 7.45+4.1%
1-2
7.8%@ 9.04+2.8%
2-1
7.2%@ 9.94+2.7%
0-2
7.2%@ 11.41+3.3%
2-0
6.2%@ 12.82+2.7%
Padova goals ↓
Hellas Verona goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.8%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.2%
7.2%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.2%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Padova goals (down), columns = Hellas Verona goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Padova is 0.61 points worse than Hellas Verona in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Padova is 0.70 goals worse than Hellas Verona in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Padova is 0.35 goals worse than Hellas Verona in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.94).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Padova
For 4.2 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.6 · Against 13.7 · Total 29.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hellas Verona
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 11.5 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Padova
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.5
10.6
4.7
4.6
4.8
28.9
29.4
28.3
vs Stronger (18)
10.8
10.9
10.7
4.7
4.5
4.8
28.6
30.1
27.3
vs Similar (32)
9.6
8.9
10.5
4.8
4.6
4.9
29.1
29.1
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
52%
68%
70%
64%
76%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
40%
48%
32%
30%
36%
24%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Hellas Verona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hellas Verona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.6
9.0
4.1
4.2
3.9
25.9
25.4
26.5
vs Stronger (24)
9.0
8.8
9.2
3.7
4.2
3.2
24.7
24.0
25.3
vs Similar (25)
8.5
8.3
8.8
4.4
4.2
4.6
27.0
26.4
27.7
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
30.0
30.0
-
% over line
40%
42%
38%
58%
54%
62%
76%
69%
83%
% under line
60%
58%
62%
42%
46%
38%
24%
31%
17%
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Vicenza Virtus
10.5
Carrarese
10.3
Padova
10.0
Virtus Entella
10.0
Palermo
9.5
Empoli
9.4
Mantova
9.4
Cesena
9.4
Ascoli
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Juve Stabia
9.1
Modena
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Cremonese
8.9
Catanzaro
8.9
Hellas Verona
8.8
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.4
Arezzo
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.1
Mantova
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Juve Stabia
4.9
Avellino
4.8
Palermo
4.8
Padova
4.7
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.3
Hellas Verona
4.1
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.0
Pisa
4.0
Arezzo
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Ascoli
32.7
Sampdoria
32.7
Avellino
31.0
Sudtirol
30.8
Catanzaro
30.8
Juve Stabia
30.1
Vicenza Virtus
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Empoli
29.6
Padova
28.9
Modena
28.6
Carrarese
28.4
Benevento
28.4
Palermo
28.4
Cremonese
28.0
Cesena
26.3
Hellas Verona
25.9
Pisa
24.9
Arezzo
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.9%
@ 1.94+1.9%
Under 9.5
50.1%
@ 1.79-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.2%
@ 1.35-0.4%
Under 3.5
32.8%
@ 2.83+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.27
Under
Superbet
3.00
Betano
2.65
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.9%
Under 21.5
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Padova or Draw✓ Hit
59.3%
Avg Implied 62.7% · @ 1.49
Edge
-3.4%
32%
31%
36%
covers Padova + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.51
William Hil
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Padova or Hellas Verona✗ Miss
67.9%
Avg Implied 69.9% · @ 1.34
Edge
-2.0%
32%
31%
36%
covers Padova + Hellas Verona
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Draw or Hellas Verona✓ Hit
72.8%
Avg Implied 67.4% · @ 1.39
Edge
+5.4%
32%
31%
36%
covers Draw + Hellas Verona
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Padova over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.4%
@ 1.38-7.0%
Under
39.6%
@ 2.84+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
3.03
BetVictor
3.00
Betano
2.95
Marathonbet
2.93
Betfair
2.88
Padova over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.7%
@ 2.87-8.7%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.38+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.07
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Under
Marathonbet
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
Padova over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 7.24-6.1%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.07+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.40
1xBet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Padova over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 18.00-3.8%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Hellas Verona over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.6%
@ 1.33-0.3%
Under
30.4%
@ 3.08+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.33
Under
BetVictor
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
Hellas Verona over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.4%
@ 2.63-2.1%
Under
66.6%
@ 1.45+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Under
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Unibet
1.44
Hellas Verona over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 6.20-3.1%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.09+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Hellas Verona over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 16.50-2.5%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Padova, so a minus line means Padova give that many goals of a start and Hellas Verona receive them. At -1, Padova must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Padova win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Padova)Actual: Hellas Verona
Padova -2
2.6%
@ 17.33-2.6%
Draw -2
7.4%
@ 8.73-3.2%
Hellas Verona +2
90.0%
@ 1.09+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Away
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Padova)Actual: Hellas Verona
Padova -1
10.0%
@ 6.35-4.1%
Draw -1
17.2%
@ 4.22-4.0%
Hellas Verona +1
72.8%
@ 1.39+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Handicap +1 (Padova)Actual: Padova
Padova +1
59.3%
@ 1.49-0.5%
Draw +1
22.5%
@ 3.90-0.3%
Hellas Verona -1
18.2%
@ 5.12+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Draw
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.75
Away
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Superbet
5.10
Marathonbet
4.80
Handicap +2 (Padova)Actual: Padova
Padova +2
81.8%
@ 1.12+2.6%
Draw +2
12.1%
@ 6.74-1.1%
Hellas Verona -2
6.0%
@ 11.85-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.90
Unibet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Marathonbet
6.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Padova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.33
0.53
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
0.82
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.58
0.33
0.44
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hellas Verona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hellas Verona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.38
0.56
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.67
0.57
0.29
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.77
0.17
0.50
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.7%
@ 1.46+6.0%
Under 0.5
30.3%
@ 2.57-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Under
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.70
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.4%
@ 3.14+2.7%
Under 1.5
67.6%
@ 1.33-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.33
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Under
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.2%
@ 8.25-1.1%
Under 2.5
89.8%
@ 1.05+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.90
BetVictor
8.50
William Hil
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Padova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.1%
@ 2.31-2.0%
Under
61.9%
@ 1.55+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Superbet
2.37
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Under
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
10Bet
1.53
Padova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 7.66-3.4%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.06+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Padova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 31.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Hellas Verona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.0%
@ 2.19+3.6%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.61-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.14
Under
Pinnacle
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Hellas Verona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 6.94+0.0%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.07-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.95
Marathonbet
6.95
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Hellas Verona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 19.25-2.7%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Padova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
0.73
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.53
0.78
0.22
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hellas Verona) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hellas Verona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.03
0.25
1.06
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
1.00
0.33
0.89
0.57
1.14
vs Similar (13)
0.08
1.00
0.17
1.17
0.00
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.4%
@ 1.29+5.9%
Under 0.5
21.6%
@ 3.39-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Under
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.9%
@ 2.33+1.8%
Under 1.5
58.1%
@ 1.56-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Unibet
2.33
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.57
Superbet
1.51
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 5.14-1.2%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.14+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.85
William Hil
5.00
Betano
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Padova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.3%
@ 1.90-5.5%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.81+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Under
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Padova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 5.50-3.2%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.11+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Padova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 17.33-3.2%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Hellas Verona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.8%
@ 1.83+4.1%
Under
45.2%
@ 1.88-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Hellas Verona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.1%
@ 5.07+6.8%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.14-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.45
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Hellas Verona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 15.83-2.3%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.6%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.06
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.05
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.14
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Superbet
1.12
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.1%
1.23
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.29
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
76.3%
1.38
Marathonbet
1.44
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.42
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.5%
1.28
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
72.8%
1.39
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
72.8%
1.39
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.36
+8.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Padova
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pietro Fusi33%
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Christian Pastina0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Alessandro Dellavalle0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Pastina33%
Pietro Fusi33%
Alessandro Dellavalle33%
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Christian Pastina0%
Pietro Fusi0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Alessandro Dellavalle0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Christian Pastina0%
Pietro Fusi0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Alessandro Dellavalle0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Hellas Verona
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Mulattieri50%
A. Sarr50%
M. Compagnon33%
A. Harroui25%
Grigoris Kastanos0%
Antoine Bernede0%
Domagoj Bradarić0%
N. Leali0%
Andrias Edmundsson0%
D. Livramento0%
Salvatore Cerbone0%
Andrea Le Borgne0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andrea Le Borgne33%
Grigoris Kastanos0%
Antoine Bernede0%
Domagoj Bradarić0%
N. Leali0%
A. Harroui0%
S. Mulattieri0%
Andrias Edmundsson0%
A. Sarr0%
M. Compagnon0%
D. Livramento0%
Salvatore Cerbone0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Domagoj Bradarić33%
Andrea Le Borgne33%
Grigoris Kastanos0%
Antoine Bernede0%
N. Leali0%
A. Harroui0%
S. Mulattieri0%
Andrias Edmundsson0%
A. Sarr0%
M. Compagnon0%
D. Livramento0%
Salvatore Cerbone0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Compagnon33%
S. Mulattieri25%
A. Sarr25%
D. Livramento25%
Grigoris Kastanos0%
Antoine Bernede0%
Domagoj Bradarić0%
N. Leali0%
A. Harroui0%
Andrias Edmundsson0%
Salvatore Cerbone0%
Andrea Le Borgne0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Padova's squad is €32m less valuable than Hellas Verona's (€25m vs €57m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Padova's attack is €7m less valuable than Hellas Verona's (€6m vs €13m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Padova's midfield is €7m less valuable than Hellas Verona's (€7m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Padova's defence is €19m less valuable than Hellas Verona's (€12m vs €30m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Mantova
Palermo
Cesena
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Avellino
Arezzo
Pisa
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Sampdoria
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
Cremonese