Paks and Ujpest are set to clash in the Hungary: NB I, with Paks looking to capitalize on their recent form. The hosts have been coming off a draw, having drawn their last match against Budapest Honved, while Ujpest is on a 2-game winning run. However, the expected total goals is a high 4.0, driven by Paks' attacking prowess at home, where they average 2.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, particularly against weaker opponents. Ujpest's away form is less impressive, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded when facing stronger opponents.
The model predicts a Paks win, with a 50% chance of home victory, 21% chance of a draw, and 28% chance of an Ujpest win. The most likely score is 2-1 to Paks, with a 8.3% probability. The model suggests selecting the Over 1.5 goals, Over 21.5 fouls, Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and Over 3.5 cards. These selections have probabilities of 91.3%, 88.1%, 75.7%, 73.9%, and 71.9% respectively. Paks have a 50% chance of winning, a 21% chance of drawing, and a 28% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Paks extended their winning run, finishing the match 2-0 to secure a home victory that matched the model’s forecast. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 50 % probability and proved correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit with 98.4 %, Under 7.5 hit at 95.1 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.3 %, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 94.3 %, Over 1.5 hit at 91.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 90.8 %, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 89.7 %, and Under 6.5 hit at 89.3 %. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each selection’s outcome was noted once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paks win✓ Hit
50.5%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.90
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.95
Dafabet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
William Hil
1.91
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.80
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.09
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.80
Bet365
3.80
Ujpest win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.34
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.45
Dafabet
3.45
Betano
3.45
888Sport
3.40
William Hil
3.40
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paks
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.73
2.50
2.07
1.31
1.44
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
1.75
2.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.78
1.83
2.40
2.30
1.31
1.46
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
1.00
3.50
1.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.80
1.67
1.67
1.53
1.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.00
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.74
1.67
1.85
1.46
1.64
1.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.3%
@ 1.10+6.4%
Under 1.5
8.7%
@ 6.17-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
Under
Bet365
7.00
Pinnacle
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
75.7%
@ 1.37+8.2%
Under 2.5
24.3%
@ 2.86-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.13
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.0%
@ 1.94+7.9%
Under 3.5
44.0%
@ 1.80-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
888Sport
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Under
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
73.9%
@ 1.37+6.6%
No
26.1%
@ 2.83-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
No
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Marathonbet
2.93
Betano
2.92
Superbet
2.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.3%@ 8.01+2.8%
1-1
8.0%@ 7.66+2.2%
2-2
7.0%@ 9.65+2.4%
3-1
6.3%@ 11.35+2.4%
1-2
6.2%@ 10.79+2.1%
3-2
5.3%@ 14.06+2.2%
2-0 ✓
4.9%@ 11.73+1.1%
2-3
4.0%@ 19.12+1.6%
Paks goals ↓
Ujpest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
2.5%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
1
3.6%
8.0%
6.2%
3.5%
1.5%
2
4.9%
8.3%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
3
3.7%
6.3%
5.3%
3.0%
1.3%
4
2.1%
3.6%
3.0%
1.7%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paks goals (down), columns = Ujpest goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Puskas Academy
2.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.80
Ferencvarosi TC
1.75
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
Paks is 0.33 points worse than Ujpest in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Gyori ETO FC
2.20
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ferencvarosi TC
1.25
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
Paks and Ujpest are level in goals scored per game (both 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gyori ETO FC
0.80
Vasas
1.17
Ferencvarosi TC
1.25
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
Paks is 0.50 goals worse than Ujpest in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
57%
Gyori ETO FC
56%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
Paks is 1.2 percentage points worse than Ujpest in terms of average possession (50% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Paks
For 5.1 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 14.0 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ujpest
For 4.5 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 16.1 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paks
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.6
10.6
3.8
4.2
3.5
28.2
28.8
27.7
vs Stronger (8)
11.7
11.3
12.0
4.9
4.7
5.0
30.1
33.0
28.0
vs Similar (38)
10.3
10.6
10.1
3.9
4.6
3.3
27.8
28.2
27.6
vs Weaker (4)
8.0
8.0
-
0.8
1.0
0.0
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
59%
50%
67%
54%
52%
56%
85%
75%
94%
% under line
41%
50%
33%
46%
48%
44%
15%
25%
6%
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.6
9.4
3.5
3.7
3.4
26.1
26.3
25.9
vs Stronger (5)
10.0
9.5
10.5
4.6
6.5
3.3
23.0
21.5
24.5
vs Similar (45)
10.0
10.7
9.2
3.4
3.5
3.4
26.5
26.9
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
61%
50%
50%
52%
48%
78%
78%
78%
% under line
44%
39%
50%
50%
48%
52%
22%
22%
22%
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.5
Ujpest
10.0
Puskas Academy
9.8
Gyori ETO FC
9.8
Debreceni VSC
9.7
Kisvarda FC
9.6
MTK Budapest
9.6
Budapest Honved
9.4
Ferencvarosi TC
9.4
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.0
Vasas
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Paks
5.1
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Vasas
5.0
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.8
Gyori ETO FC
4.7
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
MTK Budapest
4.3
Budapest Honved
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.3
Debreceni VSC
28.0
Puskas Academy
27.5
Ferencvarosi TC
27.5
Ujpest
26.1
MTK Budapest
24.8
Zalaegerszegi TE
24.8
Gyori ETO FC
24.3
Kisvarda FC
24.0
Budapest Honved
23.3
Vasas
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.2%
@ 1.56-9.0%
Under 9.5
49.8%
@ 2.27+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Under
Unibet
2.48
1xBet
2.28
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Marathonbet
2.19
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.4%
Under 3.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.6%
Under 21.5
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Paks or Draw✓ Hit
72.0%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.8%
50%
21%
28%
covers Paks + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Paks or Ujpest✓ Hit
78.5%
Avg Implied 76.6% · @ 1.21
Edge
+1.9%
50%
21%
28%
covers Paks + Ujpest
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Draw or Ujpest✗ Miss
49.5%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.83
Edge
-1.1%
50%
21%
28%
covers Draw + Ujpest
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.85
10Bet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Paks over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.7%
@ 1.10+5.2%
Under
10.3%
@ 6.03-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.10
Superbet
6.10
888Sport
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Paks over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
66.4%
@ 1.55+6.5%
Under
33.6%
@ 2.31-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.57
888Sport
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.49
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.35
888Sport
2.25
Paks over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
39.8%
@ 2.68+5.2%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.42-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Unibet
2.70
Under
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Paks over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
19.6%
@ 5.17+1.6%
Under
80.4%
@ 1.13-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
888Sport
5.75
Superbet
5.20
Betano
4.85
Unibet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Ujpest over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
81.6%
@ 1.22+5.4%
Under
18.4%
@ 3.89-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Superbet
3.90
888Sport
3.80
Ujpest over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
50.4%
@ 2.10+6.4%
Under
49.6%
@ 1.65-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
10Bet
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
10Bet
1.62
Ujpest over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.1%
@ 4.52+3.6%
Under
75.9%
@ 1.17-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Ujpest over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 10.70+0.3%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.04-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
Superbet
9.30
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Paks, so a minus line means Paks give that many goals of a start and Ujpest receive them. At -1, Paks must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Paks win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Paks)Actual: Draw
Paks -2
16.1%
@ 5.85+0.8%
Draw -2
15.1%
@ 5.37-1.4%
Ujpest +2
68.8%
@ 1.31+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
Unibet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Draw
Marathonbet
5.80
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Paks)Actual: Paks
Paks -1
31.2%
@ 3.08+2.0%
Draw -1
19.3%
@ 4.05-2.8%
Ujpest +1
49.5%
@ 1.84+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Marathonbet
3.05
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Away
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Betfair
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Handicap +1 (Paks)Actual: Paks
Paks +1
72.0%
@ 1.28+2.2%
Draw +1
14.1%
@ 5.48-2.2%
Ujpest -1
13.9%
@ 6.44+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Superbet
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Away
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
5.90
Handicap +2 (Paks)Actual: Paks
Paks +2
86.1%
@ 1.09+1.9%
Draw +2
8.4%
@ 9.70-1.1%
Ujpest -2
5.6%
@ 14.50-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
8.40
Away
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paks
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
1.00
0.93
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.83
1.10
1.10
0.77
0.62
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.87
0.67
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.63
1.00
0.54
0.64
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.6%
@ 1.19+0.5%
Under 0.5
22.4%
@ 4.03-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.1%
@ 2.00-3.5%
Under 1.5
56.9%
@ 1.74+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.08
Betano
2.05
William Hil
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
Superbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.9%
@ 4.06-4.7%
Under 2.5
82.1%
@ 1.19+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Betano
4.05
William Hil
4.00
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Unibet
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paks over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
58.5%
@ 1.57-0.7%
Under
41.5%
@ 2.27+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
1xBet
2.34
Superbet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Paks over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
23.2%
@ 3.67-1.9%
Under
76.8%
@ 1.23+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.86
10Bet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Superbet
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Under
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Paks over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 9.35-4.2%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Superbet
9.60
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Ujpest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.7%
@ 1.90-6.1%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.81+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Unibet
1.92
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Ujpest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 5.51-5.3%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.11+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.95
Betano
5.60
Superbet
5.45
1xBet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
Ujpest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 15.25-4.7%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paks
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.97
1.50
1.14
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.00
1.30
1.20
0.54
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
3.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ujpest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ujpest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
0.80
1.00
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.93
1.04
0.85
0.92
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paks over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ujpest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
91.3%
1.10
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Unibet
1.11
888Sport
1.11
Pinnacle
1.10
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
89.3%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.11
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.1%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Unibet
1.17
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
80.4%
1.13
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
79.0%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.5%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.6%
1.19
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.8%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
+1.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
75.9%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
75.7%
1.37
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.39
+8.2%
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
73.9%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
73.2%
1.50
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.0%
1.27
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Betfair
1.29
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
1.28
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.24
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Paks
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
József Szalai83%
M. Pető43%
J. Windecker33%
Zsolt Haraszti20%
Andor Lapu20%
Milán Győrfi17%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
J. Hahn0%
Kristóf Papp0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
K. Horváth0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Windecker50%
K. Horváth43%
B. Lenzsér40%
J. Szabó40%
Kristóf Papp29%
J. Hahn25%
Andor Lapu20%
Milán Győrfi17%
M. Pető14%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
József Szalai0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zsolt Haraszti40%
Andor Lapu40%
B. Vécsei33%
Kristóf Papp29%
József Szalai17%
K. Horváth14%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
J. Hahn0%
J. Windecker0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
M. Pető0%
Milán Győrfi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
József Szalai50%
M. Pető43%
Dániel Böde25%
J. Hahn25%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
Kristóf Papp0%
J. Windecker0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Andor Lapu0%
K. Horváth0%
Milán Győrfi0%
Ujpest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Etienne Amenyido75%
A. Matko75%
G. Vlijter50%
Krisztofer Horváth25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Máté25%
Arne Maier0%
Etienne Amenyido0%
Krisztofer Horváth0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
A. Matko0%
G. Vlijter0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Etienne Amenyido50%
Krisztofer Horváth25%
A. Matko25%
G. Vlijter25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krisztofer Horváth75%
A. Matko50%
Etienne Amenyido25%
Arne Maier0%
P. Szappanos0%
João Nunes0%
M. Ljujić0%
P. Stronati0%
G. Vlijter0%
János Bodnár0%
Noah Fenyő0%
Ábel György Krajcsovics0%
M. Máté0%
Ferenc Ujváry0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
Paks's squad is €6m less valuable than Ujpest's (€8m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
Paks's attack is €3m less valuable than Ujpest's (€3m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
Paks's midfield is €2m less valuable than Ujpest's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
Paks's defence is €2m less valuable than Ujpest's (€4m vs €5m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Puskas Academy
Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
Vasas
Ferencvarosi TC
Nyiregyhaza
Budapest Honved
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE