The contest between Panserraikos and Atromitos sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring an away win at 38 percent. Home and away sides each carry a roughly one-third chance of triumph, while a draw sits at 29 percent. The expected tally of 2.5 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, with the most probable total of two goals carrying a 27 percent chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, a 14 percent probability that reflects the evenly matched nature of the sides.
Panserraikos, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages one goal scored and 1.4 conceded, signalling a cautious approach. Atromitos, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.33 scored and only 0.33 conceded, suggesting a more attacking stance. These figures underline the fine balance between the two teams.
The model’s selections are broad: Over 19.5 fouls at 98.4 percent, Over 2.5 cards at 97.3 percent, Over 21.5 fouls at 95.9 percent, Over 3.5 cards at 92.5 percent, Over 23.5 fouls at 91.0 percent, Under 11.5 corners at 84.5 percent, Over 4.5 cards at 83.9 percent, and Over 25.5 fouls at 83.0 percent. Each of these picks carries its own probability, independent of the match result.
Results analysis
The win extends Panserraikos’ recent form, but the model’s favourite was the away side, Atromitos, with a 38% probability, and it proved correct as the final score was 2-3. The prediction that the match would end in an away victory was spot on. The model’s selections were largely fulfilled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 98.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 97.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 95.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 92.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 91.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 84.5%, Over 4.5 cards at 83.9%, and Over 25.5 fouls at 83.0%. All eight picks settled in the final whistle.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Panserraikos winâś— Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.22
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 3.07
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atromitos winâś“ Hit
37.5%
Avg Implied 40.4% · @ 2.32
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Panserraikos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.60
1.41
1.35
0.85
1.92
vs Stronger (15)
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.40
1.00
2.60
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.40
2.00
1.29
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Atromitos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atromitos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.37
1.07
1.80
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
2.14
0.33
2.17
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.19
0.60
1.60
1.09
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
2.14
1.00
2.75
1.50
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Panserraikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 2.12+1.8%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.69-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.5%
No
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.3%
0-1
9.2%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
5.9%
Panserraikos goals ↓
Atromitos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
9.2%
6.9%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.5%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.2%
2
5.9%
7.7%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.4%
3.1%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panserraikos goals (down), columns = Atromitos goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.36
Panathinaikos
1.92
AEK Athens FC
1.75
Aris Thessalonikis
1.74
PAOK
1.72
Asteras Tripolis
1.55
Levadiakos
1.48
Panetolikos
1.40
Atromitos
1.37
OFI Crete
1.19
OFI
1.19
Panserraikos
1.12
Kallithea
1.00
Volos NFC
0.98
Athens Kallithea
0.94
Lamia
0.54
Panserraikos is 0.25 points worse than Atromitos in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PAOK
1.97
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.78
AEK Athens FC
1.53
Levadiakos
1.48
Panathinaikos
1.36
Aris Thessalonikis
1.32
OFI Crete
1.25
OFI
1.25
Panserraikos
1.24
Asteras Tripolis
1.24
Atromitos
1.21
Kallithea
1.00
Athens Kallithea
0.94
Volos NFC
0.93
Panetolikos
0.83
Lamia
0.56
Panserraikos is 0.03 goals better than Atromitos in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.67
AEK Athens FC
0.81
Panetolikos
0.81
Aris Thessalonikis
1.00
Panathinaikos
1.00
Atromitos
1.08
Levadiakos
1.12
Asteras Tripolis
1.16
PAOK
1.19
Kallithea
1.44
OFI Crete
1.47
OFI
1.47
Athens Kallithea
1.49
Volos NFC
1.55
Panserraikos
1.69
Lamia
1.76
Panserraikos is 0.61 goals worse than Atromitos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
AEK Athens FC
65%
PAOK
58%
Olympiakos Piraeus
57%
Panathinaikos
57%
Aris Thessalonikis
54%
Levadiakos
49%
Panserraikos
49%
OFI
48%
Volos NFC
47%
Atromitos
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Kallithea
45%
Panetolikos
43%
Lamia
41%
Panserraikos is 3.6 percentage points better than Atromitos in terms of average possession (49% vs 45%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Panserraikos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.82
0.71
0.54
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.93
0.70
0.70
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.73
1.00
0.71
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Atromitos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atromitos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.73
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.57
0.75
0.75
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Panserraikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panserraikos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Panserraikos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.59
0.65
0.31
0.92
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.87
0.30
0.70
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.67
1.00
0.57
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Atromitos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atromitos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.73
1.07
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.33
1.17
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.62
0.20
1.20
0.73
0.36
vs Weaker (7)
1.57
0.43
2.00
0.75
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Panserraikos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panserraikos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panserraikos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atromitos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 5.5 cards
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
VN (25)
€10m
PAN (27)
€6m
KAL (27)
€5m
Panserraikos's squad is €6m less valuable than Atromitos's (€6m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (11)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
Panserraikos's attack is €1m less valuable than Atromitos's (€2m vs €3m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
PAN (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
Panserraikos's midfield is €2m less valuable than Atromitos's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
KAL (14)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
Panserraikos's defence is €3m less valuable than Atromitos's (€3m vs €6m).
Greece: Super League 1 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →