This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.73
1.64
1.36
1.50
2.06
vs Stronger (10)
1.50
2.60
1.50
1.50
1.50
3.33
vs Similar (13)
1.46
1.15
1.33
1.00
1.57
1.29
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
1.57
2.25
1.75
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.8%
No
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
13.9%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
11.4%
0-2
11.3%
1-2
9.0%
1-0
6.9%
0-3
5.6%
2-1 ✓
4.8%
Paris FC goals ↓
Metz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
14%
11%
5.6%
2.1%
1
6.9%
13%
9.0%
4.5%
1.7%
2
3.2%
4.8%
3.6%
1.8%
0.7%
3
0.9%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paris FC goals (down), columns = Metz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Metz
2.13
Stade Brestois 29
1.95
Estac Troyes
1.87
Paris FC
1.71
Lens
1.66
Lorient
1.66
Le Havre
1.42
Orleans
1.37
Grenoble
1.32
Clermont Foot
1.26
Chateauroux
1.26
Niort
1.24
Valenciennes
1.13
Nancy
1.11
Auxerre
1.08
Sochaux
1.08
Ajaccio
1.04
Beziers
1.00
Red Star
0.79
Paris FC is 0.42 points worse than Metz in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 2.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stade Brestois 29
1.68
Metz
1.58
Valenciennes
1.37
Orleans
1.34
Estac Troyes
1.34
Lorient
1.34
Lens
1.29
Le Havre
1.18
Clermont Foot
1.16
Grenoble
1.13
Chateauroux
0.97
Paris FC
0.95
Nancy
0.95
Auxerre
0.89
Niort
0.89
Beziers
0.87
Ajaccio
0.78
Red Star
0.74
Sochaux
0.71
Paris FC is 0.63 goals worse than Metz in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris FC
0.58
Metz
0.61
Lens
0.74
Estac Troyes
0.74
Stade Brestois 29
0.92
Auxerre
0.95
Clermont Foot
0.97
Le Havre
1.05
Niort
1.08
Lorient
1.08
Chateauroux
1.11
Sochaux
1.13
Grenoble
1.24
Ajaccio
1.30
Beziers
1.32
Nancy
1.32
Orleans
1.39
Red Star
1.53
Valenciennes
1.61
Paris FC is 0.03 goals better than Metz in terms of goals conceded per game (0.58 vs 0.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Paris FC
For 2.5 · Against 6.5 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 13.6 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Metz
For 5.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 12.2 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.9
9.0
3.8
3.1
4.5
28.9
29.3
28.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
9.6
8.7
10.4
3.1
2.6
3.5
31.5
28.0
35.0
vs Weaker (35)
8.6
9.0
8.3
4.2
3.4
4.9
27.8
30.0
26.3
% over line
40%
36%
43%
54%
42%
65%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
60%
64%
57%
46%
58%
35%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.2
9.5
3.6
3.8
3.5
26.3
26.5
26.2
vs Stronger (16)
10.0
11.2
8.8
3.4
3.4
3.4
26.8
27.4
26.2
vs Similar (22)
9.5
9.4
9.5
3.7
4.1
3.5
25.9
25.7
26.0
vs Weaker (12)
10.2
9.9
10.6
3.7
3.7
3.6
26.5
26.6
26.4
% over line
48%
42%
54%
40%
50%
31%
84%
79%
88%
% under line
52%
58%
46%
60%
50%
69%
16%
21%
12%
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Le Havre
11.1
Chateauroux
10.8
Grenoble
10.6
Stade Brestois 29
10.5
Estac Troyes
10.2
Lorient
10.2
Clermont Foot
10.2
Niort
10.1
Sochaux
9.8
Lens
9.8
Metz
9.8
Auxerre
9.7
Valenciennes
9.4
Orleans
9.3
Paris FC
8.9
Ajaccio
8.8
Red Star
8.6
Nancy
8.5
Beziers
6.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Beziers
4.6
Ajaccio
4.3
Orleans
4.3
Paris FC
4.3
Niort
4.2
Nancy
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Valenciennes
4.0
Sochaux
3.8
Grenoble
3.8
Lens
3.7
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Estac Troyes
3.7
Clermont Foot
3.6
Metz
3.6
Le Havre
3.5
Auxerre
3.4
Chateauroux
3.3
Red Star
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Valenciennes
37.2
Chateauroux
36.5
Le Havre
34.8
Sochaux
34.8
Niort
33.1
Beziers
32.4
Ajaccio
31.1
Lorient
31.0
Nancy
30.3
Stade Brestois 29
30.2
Red Star
30.1
Lens
29.8
Grenoble
29.8
Paris FC
28.9
Orleans
28.0
Clermont Foot
26.8
Auxerre
26.8
Metz
26.3
Estac Troyes
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
38.6%
Under 9.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.4%
Under 3.5
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
93.8%
Under 21.5
6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paris FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.27
0.50
0.14
0.44
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (21)
0.48
0.24
0.50
0.00
0.45
0.45
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.64
0.50
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.40
0.25
0.50
0.17
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.46
0.83
0.33
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.71
0.75
0.75
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paris FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paris FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
0.90
0.52
0.80
0.30
1.00
0.73
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
1.00
0.86
1.12
0.94
vs Stronger (10)
1.30
1.20
1.25
1.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.69
0.50
0.67
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.86
1.50
1.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paris FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paris FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Paris FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ilan Kebbal26%
Marshall Munetsi25%
Lohann Doucet20%
Willem Geubbels19%
Luca Koleosho17%
Alimami Gory16%
Ciro Immobile15%
Jonathan Ikoné15%
Nouha Dicko12%
Moses Simon10%
Rudy Matondo8%
Vincent Marchetti8%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Samir Sophian Chergui7%
Pierre Lees Melou5%
Otávio4%
Adama Camara3%
Kevin Trapp0%
Maxime López0%
Hamari Traoré0%
Thibault De Smet0%
Julien López0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Moustapha Mbow0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Diego Coppola0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maxime López41%
Lohann Doucet40%
Thibault De Smet32%
Otávio29%
Pierre Lees Melou27%
Adama Camara25%
Ilan Kebbal23%
Hamari Traoré22%
Rudy Matondo17%
Ciro Immobile15%
Timothée Kolodziejczak15%
Moustapha Mbow15%
Alimami Gory12%
Jonathan Ikoné12%
Kevin Trapp9%
Mathieu Cafaro8%
Diego Coppola7%
Samir Sophian Chergui7%
Luca Koleosho6%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Willem Geubbels0%
Moses Simon0%
Marshall Munetsi0%
Nouha Dicko0%
Julien López0%
Jean-Philippe Krasso0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ilan Kebbal16%
Ciro Immobile15%
Diego Coppola14%
Pierre Lees Melou14%
Nouha Dicko12%
Maxime López11%
Moses Simon10%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Marshall Munetsi6%
Hamari Traoré6%
Luca Koleosho6%
Thibault De Smet5%
Alimami Gory4%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Jonathan Ikoné4%
Willem Geubbels4%
Moustapha Mbow3%
Kevin Trapp0%
Julien López0%
Samir Sophian Chergui0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Adama Camara0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Otávio0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Moses Simon14%
Ilan Kebbal13%
Marshall Munetsi12%
Jonathan Ikoné12%
Willem Geubbels11%
Mathieu Cafaro8%
Rudy Matondo8%
Ciro Immobile8%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Pierre Lees Melou5%
Alimami Gory4%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Kevin Trapp0%
Maxime López0%
Hamari Traoré0%
Thibault De Smet0%
Nouha Dicko0%
Julien López0%
Samir Sophian Chergui0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Adama Camara0%
Moustapha Mbow0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Otávio0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Diego Coppola0%
Luca Koleosho0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Metz · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Idris Mohamed67%
Nampalys Mendy25%
Florian Miguel25%
Jessy Deminguet25%
Pape Moussa Fall25%
Jean Ruiz0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Deminguet25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Pape Moussa Fall0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
MET (26)
€43m
ET (23)
€36m
CF (21)
€15m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
SOC (20)
€7m
VAL (21)
€4m
ORL (16)
€4m
CHA (5)
€1m
Paris FC's squad is €133m more valuable than Metz's (€176m vs €43m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
SOC (8)
€3m
CF (5)
€2m
ORL (6)
€2m
VAL (8)
€1m
CHA (1)
€0m
Paris FC's attack is €42m more valuable than Metz's (€59m vs €17m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (7)
€54m
LOR (5)
€32m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
ET (6)
€11m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
SOC (3)
€1m
VAL (3)
€1m
ORL (4)
€1m
CHA (2)
€0m
Paris FC's midfield is €36m more valuable than Metz's (€54m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEN (14)
€112m
PF (17)
€62m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
NAN (11)
€6m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
VAL (10)
€2m
ORL (6)
€2m
CHA (2)
€0m
Paris FC's defence is €55m more valuable than Metz's (€62m vs €8m).
France: Ligue 2 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Ajaccio
Stade Brestois 29
Estac Troyes
Lens
Lorient
Le Havre
Orleans
Grenoble
Clermont Foot
Chateauroux
Niort
Valenciennes
Nancy
Auxerre
Sochaux