This opponent (Ajaccio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.37
1.07
0.93
0.33
1.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.60
0.80
1.00
0.40
2.20
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.25
1.20
0.90
0.30
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.5%
Under 1.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.2%
@ 2.08-3.2%
Under 2.5
57.8%
@ 1.73+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.3%
No
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
15.6%
2-0
14.7%
1-1
10.9%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
8.8%
3-0
8.7%
3-1
5.2%
0-1
4.6%
PAU goals ↓
Ajaccio goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
4.6%
1.7%
0.3%
0.0%
1
16%
11%
3.0%
0.6%
0.1%
2
15%
8.8%
2.6%
0.5%
0.1%
3
8.7%
5.2%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
4
3.8%
2.3%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PAU goals (down), columns = Ajaccio goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lorient
2.14
Paris FC
2.08
Metz
1.86
Dunkerque
1.66
Annecy
1.58
Boulogne
1.50
Laval
1.50
Guingamp
1.49
Bastia
1.44
Estac Troyes
1.33
PAU
1.33
Grenoble
1.31
Amiens
1.28
Ajaccio
1.25
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.11
Clermont Foot
1.00
Martigues
0.89
Caen
0.67
PAU is 0.08 points better than Ajaccio in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lorient
2.00
Metz
1.81
Paris FC
1.72
Guingamp
1.65
Rodez
1.58
Boulogne
1.50
Dunkerque
1.34
Laval
1.33
PAU
1.28
Grenoble
1.22
Bastia
1.22
Annecy
1.22
Amiens
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.14
Red Star
1.09
RED Star FC 93
1.09
Clermont Foot
0.95
Caen
0.94
Ajaccio
0.89
Martigues
0.81
PAU is 0.39 goals better than Ajaccio in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lorient
0.92
Paris FC
0.97
Estac Troyes
1.00
Metz
1.00
Bastia
1.03
Laval
1.08
Dunkerque
1.11
Annecy
1.19
Ajaccio
1.22
Grenoble
1.31
Clermont Foot
1.34
Guingamp
1.43
Amiens
1.44
Red Star
1.50
RED Star FC 93
1.50
PAU
1.53
Rodez
1.58
Martigues
1.61
Caen
1.69
Boulogne
2.00
PAU is 0.31 goals worse than Ajaccio in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris FC
61%
Metz
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Lorient
56%
Guingamp
55%
Caen
54%
RED Star FC 93
52%
Bastia
52%
Clermont Foot
51%
Boulogne
50%
PAU
49%
Ajaccio
46%
Grenoble
45%
Estac Troyes
45%
Amiens
44%
Martigues
44%
Laval
44%
Annecy
43%
Rodez
43%
PAU is 2.3 percentage points better than Ajaccio in terms of average possession (49% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
PAU
For 5.3 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 10.4 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajaccio
For 3.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 13.2 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PAU
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.4
9.0
3.8
3.2
4.5
26.0
26.1
25.8
vs Stronger (4)
9.5
8.7
12.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
21.5
23.3
16.0
vs Similar (40)
9.3
9.3
9.2
3.9
3.2
4.5
26.2
26.2
26.2
vs Weaker (6)
8.2
10.3
5.0
3.8
3.3
4.3
27.6
28.3
26.5
% over line
42%
38%
46%
48%
33%
62%
79%
83%
75%
% under line
58%
62%
54%
52%
67%
38%
21%
17%
25%
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
7.0
8.1
3.7
3.5
4.0
27.9
25.9
30.0
vs Stronger (17)
8.0
8.4
7.6
3.7
3.9
3.6
27.7
27.8
27.6
vs Similar (33)
7.3
6.3
8.3
3.8
3.3
4.2
28.0
25.0
31.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
23%
17%
29%
52%
48%
56%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
77%
83%
71%
48%
52%
44%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Martigues
11.6
RED Star FC 93
11.5
Rodez
10.5
Lorient
10.0
Caen
9.9
Red Star
9.9
Clermont Foot
9.8
Laval
9.7
Bastia
9.7
Guingamp
9.6
Annecy
9.5
Dunkerque
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Estac Troyes
9.4
Metz
9.3
PAU
9.3
Grenoble
9.2
Amiens
9.1
Ajaccio
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bastia
4.9
Clermont Foot
4.4
Lorient
4.3
Martigues
4.3
PAU
4.2
Estac Troyes
4.1
Annecy
4.0
Laval
4.0
Amiens
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Red Star
3.8
Metz
3.8
Ajaccio
3.8
Caen
3.7
Rodez
3.6
Guingamp
3.6
Paris FC
3.6
RED Star FC 93
3.5
Grenoble
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Caen
28.2
Laval
28.0
Ajaccio
27.8
Amiens
27.7
Annecy
26.9
Guingamp
26.8
Bastia
26.7
Estac Troyes
26.4
Red Star
26.4
PAU
26.0
Dunkerque
25.3
Paris FC
24.9
Metz
24.9
Martigues
24.6
Lorient
24.6
Clermont Foot
24.2
Rodez
24.0
RED Star FC 93
23.3
Grenoble
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.7%
Under 9.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 3.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.9%
Under 21.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
PAU
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.71
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.72
0.80
0.70
0.40
0.73
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.53
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.50
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (20)
0.35
0.75
0.40
0.50
0.30
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
PAU over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAU over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAU over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
PAU
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
1.00
0.43
0.94
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.96
0.88
1.00
0.60
0.93
1.07
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ajaccio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.67
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.10
0.40
0.40
0.00
1.80
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.50
0.80
0.40
0.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
PAU over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAU over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAU over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
PAU
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pathé Mboup26%
Khalid Boutaïb25%
Antoine Mille16%
Mehdi Chahiri14%
Kandet Diawara14%
Antonin Bobichon13%
Mamady Bangré11%
Kouadio Ange Ahoussou11%
Oumar Ngom8%
Tairyk Arconte7%
Thérence Koudou7%
Steeve Beusnard4%
Jean Ruiz4%
Johann Obiang0%
Ousmane Kanté0%
Joseph Lopy0%
Mehdi Jeannin0%
Kenji Van Boto0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Xavier Kouassi0%
Jordy Gaspar0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Kylian Gasnier0%
Iyad Mohamed0%
Yonis Njoh0%
Tom Gomes0%
Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ousmane Kanté33%
Pathé Mboup29%
Jean Ruiz29%
Iyad Mohamed26%
Kouadio Ange Ahoussou26%
Antoine Mille25%
Jordy Gaspar19%
Bingourou Kamara18%
Thérence Koudou17%
Daylam Meddah14%
Steeve Beusnard12%
Khalid Boutaïb11%
Tairyk Arconte11%
Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa9%
Oumar Ngom8%
Kandet Diawara7%
Antonin Bobichon7%
Xavier Kouassi5%
Johann Obiang0%
Joseph Lopy0%
Mehdi Jeannin0%
Kenji Van Boto0%
Mehdi Chahiri0%
Kylian Gasnier0%
Mamady Bangré0%
Yonis Njoh0%
Tom Gomes0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Antonin Bobichon27%
Thérence Koudou17%
Antoine Mille12%
Pathé Mboup10%
Jean Ruiz7%
Steeve Beusnard4%
Khalid Boutaïb4%
Tairyk Arconte4%
Johann Obiang0%
Ousmane Kanté0%
Joseph Lopy0%
Mehdi Jeannin0%
Kenji Van Boto0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Mehdi Chahiri0%
Xavier Kouassi0%
Jordy Gaspar0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Kandet Diawara0%
Kylian Gasnier0%
Iyad Mohamed0%
Mamady Bangré0%
Kouadio Ange Ahoussou0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Yonis Njoh0%
Tom Gomes0%
Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pathé Mboup35%
Khalid Boutaïb25%
Antoine Mille22%
Antonin Bobichon13%
Oumar Ngom12%
Mamady Bangré11%
Johann Obiang0%
Ousmane Kanté0%
Joseph Lopy0%
Mehdi Jeannin0%
Kenji Van Boto0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Steeve Beusnard0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Mehdi Chahiri0%
Xavier Kouassi0%
Jordy Gaspar0%
Daylam Meddah0%
Kandet Diawara0%
Kylian Gasnier0%
Iyad Mohamed0%
Kouadio Ange Ahoussou0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Thérence Koudou0%
Yonis Njoh0%
Tom Gomes0%
Joseph Kalulu Kyatengwa0%
Ajaccio
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aboubakary Kanté25%
Ben Touré15%
Moussa Soumano15%
Yoann Touzghar11%
Christopher Ibayi11%
Axel Bamba10%
Everson Junior10%
Julien Anziani9%
Mickaël Barreto8%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli7%
Benjamin Santelli4%
Tony Strata4%
Valentin Jacob0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Thomas Mangani0%
Clement Vidal0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stephen Quemper40%
Everson Junior29%
Thomas Mangani26%
Mickaël Barreto25%
Clement Vidal22%
Benjamin Santelli22%
Christopher Ibayi21%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli20%
Jesah Ayessa20%
Matthieu Huard18%
Ivane Chegra16%
Mohamed Youssouf15%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro14%
Axel Bamba13%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi13%
Julien Anziani12%
Ben Touré10%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz9%
Moussa Soumano7%
Tony Strata7%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Valentin Jacob0%
Aboubakary Kanté0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mickaël Barreto17%
Valentin Jacob14%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi9%
Moussa Soumano7%
Tony Strata7%
Thomas Mangani5%
Christopher Ibayi5%
Matthieu Huard5%
Benjamin Santelli4%
Aboubakary Kanté4%
Julien Anziani3%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Axel Bamba0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Clement Vidal0%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Everson Junior0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julien Anziani26%
Christopher Ibayi16%
Moussa Soumano11%
Aboubakary Kanté8%
Ben Touré5%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Axel Bamba0%
Valentin Jacob0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Thomas Mangani0%
Benjamin Santelli0%
Clement Vidal0%
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli0%
Stephen Quemper0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Ghjuvanni Quilichini0%
Jesah Ayessa0%
Everson Junior0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Tony Strata0%
Kan Guy Arsène Kouassi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
France: Ligue 2 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
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Lorient
Paris FC
Metz
Dunkerque
Annecy
Guingamp
Laval
Bastia
Estac Troyes
Grenoble
Amiens
Rodez
RED Star FC 93
Clermont Foot
Martigues
Caen
Boulogne