This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
União de Leiria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.97
1.33
1.13
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.17
0.85
0.85
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.80
2.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.8%
Under 1.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.9%
Under 2.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
11.0%
1-0 ✓
9.6%
1-2
8.0%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.8%
Penafiel goals ↓
União de Leiria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.5%
3.0%
0.9%
1
9.6%
15%
8.0%
3.2%
1.0%
2
5.8%
7.1%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.1%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penafiel goals (down), columns = União de Leiria goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tondela
1.88
Alverca
1.85
Vizela
1.82
Benfica B
1.62
Torreense
1.59
União de Leiria
1.53
Chaves
1.50
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Feirense
1.44
Felgueiras 1932
1.35
Academico Viseu
1.32
Penafiel
1.32
Maritimo
1.26
Leixoes
1.21
FC Porto B
1.03
Portimonense
1.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.00
Oliveirense
0.85
Mafra
0.79
Penafiel is 0.21 points worse than União de Leiria in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Alverca
1.71
Tondela
1.71
Benfica B
1.56
Vizela
1.47
Torreense
1.44
União de Leiria
1.44
Penafiel
1.32
Academico Viseu
1.26
Felgueiras 1932
1.26
Maritimo
1.24
Chaves
1.18
Portimonense
1.12
Leixoes
1.09
FC Porto B
1.06
Feirense
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Oliveirense
0.88
Mafra
0.85
Penafiel is 0.12 goals worse than União de Leiria in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vizela
0.88
Chaves
1.00
Alverca
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
União de Leiria
1.09
Benfica B
1.12
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.21
Torreense
1.24
Leixoes
1.24
Penafiel
1.38
FC Porto B
1.38
Maritimo
1.41
Pacos Ferreira
1.44
CF Os Belenenses
1.50
Portimonense
1.59
Mafra
1.59
Oliveirense
1.88
Penafiel is 0.29 goals worse than União de Leiria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Vizela
62%
Felgueiras 1932
57%
Chaves
56%
União de Leiria
55%
Benfica B
53%
Oliveirense
51%
Maritimo
51%
FC Porto B
51%
Leixoes
51%
Mafra
50%
Torreense
50%
Feirense
50%
Academico Viseu
48%
Alverca
48%
Penafiel
47%
Tondela
47%
Portimonense
40%
Pacos Ferreira
39%
Penafiel is 7.9 percentage points worse than União de Leiria in terms of average possession (47% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Penafiel
For 3.9 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 8.9 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
União de Leiria
For 5.2 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.0 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.9
10.0
4.6
4.6
4.6
27.3
26.7
28.0
vs Stronger (12)
9.2
10.6
7.8
4.8
3.9
6.2
27.1
24.8
29.8
vs Similar (37)
10.9
11.0
10.8
4.7
4.9
4.5
27.3
27.3
27.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
54%
62%
44%
72%
72%
72%
83%
78%
89%
% under line
46%
38%
56%
28%
28%
28%
17%
22%
11%
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
União de Leiria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (41)
10.3
10.0
10.7
3.5
3.9
3.1
25.0
25.3
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
10.3
10.0
10.6
3.6
3.7
3.5
24.9
26.0
23.8
vs Weaker (7)
10.2
10.0
11.0
2.7
4.7
1.2
25.2
23.3
31.0
% over line
57%
58%
56%
54%
60%
48%
73%
67%
80%
% under line
43%
42%
44%
46%
40%
52%
27%
33%
20%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alverca
12.0
Feirense
11.4
Oliveirense
11.1
Tondela
10.9
Portimonense
10.7
Chaves
10.6
Benfica B
10.3
Penafiel
10.3
FC Porto B
10.3
União de Leiria
10.3
Torreense
10.2
Mafra
10.2
Academico Viseu
9.9
Pacos Ferreira
9.9
Vizela
9.9
Maritimo
9.8
Leixoes
9.7
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Felgueiras 1932
6.2
Chaves
6.0
Maritimo
5.9
Leixoes
5.5
Oliveirense
5.5
Portimonense
5.5
Benfica B
5.4
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
Vizela
5.2
Penafiel
5.2
FC Porto B
5.1
Tondela
5.1
Feirense
5.0
Torreense
4.9
União de Leiria
4.9
Academico Viseu
4.8
Mafra
4.5
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
30.2
Leixoes
29.4
Chaves
28.8
Maritimo
28.7
Oliveirense
28.1
Vizela
27.5
Penafiel
27.4
Portimonense
27.1
Tondela
27.1
Benfica B
26.1
Torreense
25.6
Feirense
25.1
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
União de Leiria
25.0
Academico Viseu
24.3
Mafra
24.2
FC Porto B
24.2
Felgueiras 1932
18.0
Alverca
13.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.7%
Under 9.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.5%
Under 3.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
58.7%
Under 21.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.60
0.67
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.43
0.73
0.64
0.67
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
União de Leiria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.40
0.75
0.50
0.31
0.31
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.57
0.73
0.55
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (União de Leiria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
União de Leiria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.60
0.25
0.67
0.54
0.54
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
2.00
0.67
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
União de Leiria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Penafiel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zé Leite40%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Robinho25%
Maga17%
Diogo Batista17%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rúben Pereira60%
Tiago Rodrigues57%
Maga33%
Gabriel Barbosa33%
Edu Pinheiro33%
Reko29%
Robinho25%
Sodiq Fatai25%
Manuel Baldé25%
João Silva17%
Andre Silva17%
Ewerton0%
João Miguel0%
Zé Leite0%
Diogo Batista0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sodiq Fatai25%
Zé Leite20%
João Silva17%
Helder Suker14%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Zé Leite20%
Tiago Rodrigues0%
Ewerton0%
Robinho0%
Sodiq Fatai0%
Reko0%
Maga0%
Gabriel Barbosa0%
Edu Pinheiro0%
João Miguel0%
Rúben Pereira0%
João Silva0%
Diogo Batista0%
Manuel Baldé0%
Pedro Vieira0%
Andre Silva0%
Gustavo Fernandes0%
Helder Suker0%
União de Leiria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sarpreet Singh33%
Juan Muñoz33%
Alisson Santos33%
Crystopher17%
João Resende17%
Jordan van der Gaag0%
Daniel dos Anjos0%
Bura0%
Diogo Amado0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Paweł Kieszek0%
Kaka0%
Marc Baró0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
Ryan0%
Victor Rofino0%
Zé Vitor0%
Dje Tah D'Avilla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bura50%
Marc Baró40%
Diogo Amado33%
João Resende33%
Dje Tah D'Avilla33%
Daniel dos Anjos25%
Ryan25%
Zé Vitor25%
Juan Muñoz17%
Victor Rofino17%
Sarpreet Singh0%
Jordan van der Gaag0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Paweł Kieszek0%
Crystopher0%
Kaka0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
Alisson Santos0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan van der Gaag33%
Daniel dos Anjos25%
Zé Vitor25%
Marc Baró20%
Crystopher17%
João Resende17%
Sarpreet Singh0%
Bura0%
Diogo Amado0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Paweł Kieszek0%
Juan Muñoz0%
Kaka0%
Habib Sylla0%
Jair da Silva0%
Ryan0%
Alisson Santos0%
Victor Rofino0%
Dje Tah D'Avilla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jair da Silva50%
Alisson Santos33%
Ryan25%
Juan Muñoz17%
Sarpreet Singh0%
Jordan van der Gaag0%
Daniel dos Anjos0%
Bura0%
Diogo Amado0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Paweł Kieszek0%
Crystopher0%
Kaka0%
Marc Baró0%
Habib Sylla0%
João Resende0%
Victor Rofino0%
Zé Vitor0%
Dje Tah D'Avilla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (30)
€39m
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
Penafiel's squad is €4m less valuable than União de Leiria's (€5m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (8)
€15m
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Penafiel's attack is €2m less valuable than União de Leiria's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
ALV (8)
€6m
MAR (6)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Penafiel's midfield is €1m less valuable than União de Leiria's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALV (14)
€18m
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
Penafiel and União de Leiria have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Tondela
Alverca
Vizela
Benfica B
Torreense
Chaves
Feirense
Felgueiras 1932
Academico Viseu
Maritimo
Leixoes
Pacos Ferreira
FC Porto B
Portimonense
Oliveirense
Mafra
CF Os Belenenses