PythiaFootballBETA
Pisa's recent form has been abysmal, suffering five consecutive defeats after a 1-2 loss to Lazio. However, their defensive numbers at home are concerning, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per match against stronger opponents. Napoli, on the other hand, have been in decent form away from home, scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 0.8 against weaker opponents.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2.1 goals and a most likely score of 0-1, occurring 17.6% of the time. Napoli are the favourites to win, with a 57% chance of victory, and the model's pick is an away win.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Pisa average 0.33 goals at home against stronger opponents, while Napoli average 1.2 goals away against weaker opponents. Napoli's away form is slightly more promising, with a 71.1% chance of under 9.5 corners and a 84.6% chance of under 3.5 goals.
The model's selections include under 3.5 goals, under 9.5 corners, and over 21.5 fouls, with probabilities of 84.6%, 71.1%, and 73.2% respectively. The probabilities for each match outcome are 14% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 57% for an away win.
A convincing 0-3 away win for Napoli extends their winning run, but the model's call was correct as they were the favourites to win with a 57% probability. The model's selection, Away win, proved accurate. The model also correctly predicted Under 3.5 goals, hitting with an 84.6% probability, and Under 9.5 corners, hitting with a 71.1% probability. However, Over 21.5 fouls was the model's selection that missed, with a 73.2% probability. The actual result matched the model's pick, and the final score of 0-3 was in line with the most likely score of 0-1, which had a 17.6% probability.
Pisa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.87 | 0.60 | 1.40 | 0.87 | 2.33 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.50 | 2.58 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 0.67 | 3.50 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.89 | 1.39 | 0.78 | 1.22 | 1.00 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-13pp vs league) | |||||
Napoli| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.13 | 1.80 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.40 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.45 | 0.90 | 1.70 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Napoli goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 14% | 18% | 14% | 6.7% | 2.5% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 12% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
PisaNapoliPisa| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 25.4 | 26.2 | 24.6 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 8.2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 23.1 | 25.0 | 21.2 |
| vs Similar (28) | 8.2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 26.4 | 26.8 | 26.1 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 9.2 | 10.3 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 26.8 | 27.0 | 26.7 |
| % over line | 38% | 40% | 36% | 58% | 64% | 52% | 80% | 88% | 72% |
| % under line | 62% | 60% | 64% | 42% | 36% | 48% | 20% | 12% | 28% |
Napoli| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 23.7 | 24.0 | 23.5 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 11.0 | - | 11.0 | 2.0 | - | 2.0 | 7.0 | - | 7.0 |
| vs Similar (14) | 6.9 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 23.7 | 23.6 | 23.9 |
| vs Weaker (35) | 9.1 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 24.2 | 24.1 | 24.4 |
| % over line | 32% | 32% | 32% | 36% | 24% | 48% | 66% | 68% | 64% |
| % under line | 68% | 68% | 68% | 64% | 76% | 52% | 34% | 32% | 36% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 84.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 73.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 9.5 corners | 71.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/25 | A | 3-2 |
Pisa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 02/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
Napoli| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Inter | 38 | 87 | 71% | 2.3 | 89 | 35 | +54 | 3.3 | 84% | 55% | 37% | 9.2 | 55% | 3.5 | 38% | 24.2 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 60% |
| 2 | Napoli | 38 | 76 | 61% | 2.0 | 58 | 36 | +22 | 2.5 | 68% | 53% | 26% | 8.2 | 26% | 3.5 | 42% | 23.4 | 61% | 458 | 214 | 90 | 153 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 38 | 73 | 61% | 1.9 | 59 | 31 | +28 | 2.4 | 66% | 37% | 18% | 8.6 | 34% | 4.1 | 66% | 27.8 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 56% |
| 4 |  Como | 38 | 71 | 53% | 1.9 | 65 | 29 | +36 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 24% | 7.7 | 24% | 4.6 | 68% | 25.9 | 79% | 397 | 236 | 79 | 81 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 62% |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 38 | 70 | 53% | 1.8 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 2.3 | 66% | 45% | 18% | 8.6 | 42% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.9 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 6 |  Juventus | 38 | 69 | 50% | 1.8 | 61 | 34 | +27 | 2.5 | 74% | 39% | 24% | 9.2 | 37% | 3.7 | 59% | 22.3 | 61% | 480 | 210 | 124 | 146 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 58% |
| 7 |  Atalanta | 38 | 59 | 39% | 1.6 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 2.3 | 74% | 37% | 18% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.4 | 47% | 22.1 | 53% | 452 | 163 | 141 | 148 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 55% |
| 8 |  Bologna | 38 | 56 | 42% | 1.5 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 26% | 8.7 | 34% | 4.1 | 51% | 27.8 | 89% | 279 | 136 | 40 | 103 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 9 |  Lazio | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 2.1 | 66% | 32% | 16% | 7.9 | 29% | 4.9 | 76% | 25.1 | 68% | 236 | 78 | 69 | 88 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 10 |  Udinese | 38 | 50 | 37% | 1.3 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 2.4 | 68% | 45% | 21% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.7 | 53% | 25.1 | 79% | 180 | 41 | 64 | 76 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 38 | 49 | 37% | 1.3 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 2.5 | 74% | 55% | 21% | 8.7 | 50% | 4.5 | 65% | 24.9 | 68% | 212 | 78 | 57 | 77 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 12 |  Parma | 38 | 45 | 29% | 1.2 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 1.9 | 58% | 29% | 16% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.9 | 61% | 24.3 | 79% | 149 | 36 | 47 | 66 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 13 |  Torino | 38 | 45 | 32% | 1.2 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 2.8 | 74% | 63% | 29% | 8.5 | 42% | 3.5 | 44% | 24.5 | 68% | 124 | 40 | 54 | 31 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 44% |
| 14 |  Cagliari | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 2.4 | 76% | 50% | 18% | 8.9 | 37% | 4.1 | 58% | 28.6 | 89% | 196 | 62 | 37 | 97 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 38 | 42 | 24% | 1.1 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 2.4 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 9.0 | 47% | 4.8 | 78% | 28.1 | 92% | 203 | 55 | 64 | 84 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 16 |  Genoa | 38 | 41 | 26% | 1.1 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 2.4 | 76% | 53% | 16% | 8.6 | 37% | 4.5 | 76% | 27.4 | 87% | 174 | 70 | 30 | 74 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 17 |  Lecce | 38 | 38 | 26% | 1.0 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 2.1 | 61% | 37% | 13% | 9.6 | 58% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.7 | 74% | 118 | 66 | 16 | 36 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 38 | 34 | 21% | 0.9 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 2.3 | 68% | 45% | 24% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 46% | 26.4 | 84% | 76 | 21 | 25 | 30 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 19 |  Hellas Verona | 38 | 21 | 8% | 0.6 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 2.3 | 68% | 50% | 21% | 9.0 | 42% | 4.1 | 54% | 25.3 | 74% | 65 | 18 | 18 | 29 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 40% |
| 20 | Pisa | 38 | 18 | 5% | 0.5 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 2.6 | 66% | 53% | 32% | 8.4 | 37% | 3.8 | 53% | 24.7 | 79% | 104 | 40 | 42 | 22 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 40% |