Pisa's recent form has been concerning, with 5 consecutive defeats, most recently a 1-2 loss to Lazio. However, they face Padova, who have been inconsistent on the road, conceding an average of 2.17 goals per game against stronger opponents.
Padova's away form is marked by a 1.5 average goal tally, but they have struggled to contain their opponents, allowing an average of 2.17 goals conceded.
The model predicts a 42% chance of a Pisa win, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of a Padova win, favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total goals are 2.2, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability.
Pisa's home scoring and conceding statistics are not provided.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls at 92.2%, Under 3.5 at 81.1%, and Pisa win at 42%, Padova win at 27%, and draw at 31%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Padova snatched a 1-0 win, ending Pisa’s five-match losing streak and extending Padova’s three-game winning run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 40 % probability and the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8 %), Under 5.5 (97.3 %), Over 19.5 fouls (96.5 %) and Home under 3.5 goals (96.2 %). The final score of 0-1 matched the actual result, confirming the accuracy of those predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pisa win✗ Miss
40.2%
Avg Implied 54.1% · @ 1.73
Edge
-13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.79
10Bet
1.76
Betano
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.47
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.61
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.56
Superbet
3.55
Padova win✓ Hit
28.6%
Avg Implied 19.0% · @ 4.91
Edge
+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.30
Bet365
5.25
Pinnacle
5.24
Marathonbet
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pisa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.97
0.60
1.60
0.80
2.33
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
2.62
0.29
1.86
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.47
0.88
1.38
1.00
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Padova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.33
1.06
1.12
1.00
1.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.70
0.83
1.67
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.15
1.20
0.80
1.20
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pisa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.8%
@ 1.34-2.9%
Under 1.5
33.2%
@ 3.08+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.37
Betano
1.37
888Sport
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.20
Pinnacle
3.19
Superbet
3.15
Betfair
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.7%
@ 2.08-6.5%
Under 2.5
61.3%
@ 1.72+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.16
888Sport
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
@ 3.73-6.3%
Under 3.5
81.2%
@ 1.25+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
888Sport
4.00
Pinnacle
3.89
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.2%
@ 1.95-1.5%
No
53.8%
@ 1.77+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.05
888Sport
2.00
Superbet
2.00
BetVictor
1.95
William Hil
1.95
No
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.80
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 6.20+7.4%
0-0
12.0%@ 8.16+6.6%
1-0
11.9%@ 5.67+4.0%
0-1 ✓
9.4%@ 11.04+5.4%
2-1
8.2%@ 7.81+2.5%
2-0
8.1%@ 7.20+2.0%
1-2
6.6%@ 14.46+3.6%
0-2
5.4%@ 25.29+3.6%
Pisa goals ↓
Padova goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.4%
5.4%
1.8%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.1%
8.2%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.3%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pisa goals (down), columns = Padova goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Pisa is 0.51 points better than Padova in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Pisa is 0.60 goals better than Padova in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Pisa is 0.29 goals better than Padova in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pisa
For 2.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 7.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 11.0 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Padova
For 3.9 · Against 6.3 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 14.2 · Total 29.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pisa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
7.9
8.7
3.9
4.0
3.9
25.2
26.1
24.2
vs Stronger (18)
8.1
7.8
8.3
3.5
3.6
3.4
22.7
24.6
20.8
vs Similar (28)
8.5
7.9
9.2
4.0
4.1
3.8
26.9
27.5
26.1
vs Weaker (4)
8.2
9.0
8.0
5.8
5.0
6.0
24.8
19.0
26.7
% over line
36%
36%
36%
56%
64%
48%
76%
84%
68%
% under line
64%
64%
64%
44%
36%
52%
24%
16%
32%
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Padova
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.6
10.6
4.8
4.7
4.9
29.2
29.8
28.5
vs Stronger (17)
10.8
10.9
10.8
4.8
4.5
5.0
28.8
30.1
27.6
vs Similar (33)
9.7
9.0
10.5
4.8
4.8
4.9
29.4
29.7
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
54%
67%
72%
65%
79%
96%
92%
100%
% under line
40%
46%
33%
28%
35%
21%
4%
8%
0%
This opponent (Pisa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Vicenza Virtus
10.5
Carrarese
10.3
Padova
10.1
Virtus Entella
10.0
Empoli
9.4
Mantova
9.4
Palermo
9.4
Cesena
9.4
Ascoli
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Juve Stabia
9.0
Modena
9.0
Avellino
9.0
Cremonese
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Hellas Verona
8.7
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.3
Arezzo
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.1
Mantova
5.1
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Palermo
4.9
Avellino
4.8
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.8
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Sudtirol
4.4
Virtus Entella
4.3
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.1
Hellas Verona
4.1
Pisa
4.0
Arezzo
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.8
Ascoli
32.6
Avellino
31.0
Sudtirol
30.8
Catanzaro
30.8
Juve Stabia
30.2
Vicenza Virtus
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Empoli
29.6
Padova
29.2
Modena
28.7
Carrarese
28.4
Benevento
28.4
Palermo
28.3
Cremonese
28.0
Cesena
26.2
Hellas Verona
25.8
Pisa
25.2
Arezzo
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.0%
@ 2.10-1.0%
Under 9.5
57.0%
@ 1.65+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.6%
@ 1.38+3.5%
Under 3.5
31.4%
@ 2.57-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.57
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
91.9%
Under 21.5
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pisa or Draw✗ Miss
71.4%
Avg Implied 80.7% · @ 1.16
Edge
-9.3%
40%
31%
29%
covers Pisa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Pisa or Padova✓ Hit
68.9%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.27
Edge
-4.9%
40%
31%
29%
covers Pisa + Padova
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Betfair
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Draw or Padova✓ Hit
59.7%
Avg Implied 45.5% · @ 2.06
Edge
+14.2%
40%
31%
29%
covers Draw + Padova
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.15
SBO
2.14
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.09
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pisa over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.1%
@ 1.18-7.6%
Under
28.9%
@ 4.37+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Under
Betfair
5.00
Pinnacle
4.52
BetVictor
4.50
Betano
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Pisa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.3%
@ 1.94-13.0%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.80+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Pisa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 3.96-10.5%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.21+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
888Sport
4.33
Pinnacle
4.13
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Pisa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 8.81-6.9%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.05+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.70
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Padova over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.4%
@ 1.62+6.1%
Under
36.6%
@ 2.17-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.64
888Sport
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Under
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.23
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.17
Padova over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.7%
@ 4.08+3.9%
Under
73.3%
@ 1.21-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.52
BetVictor
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Under
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Padova over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 11.83+0.1%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.03-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
15.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
11.00
Marathonbet
11.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Padova over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 40.50-98.1%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pisa, so a minus line means Pisa give that many goals of a start and Padova receive them. At -1, Pisa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pisa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pisa)Actual: Padova
Pisa -2
6.3%
@ 6.54-7.4%
Draw -2
12.1%
@ 4.97-5.9%
Padova +2
81.6%
@ 1.31+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.40
Superbet
5.90
Draw
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Superbet
4.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Handicap -1 (Pisa)Actual: Padova
Pisa -1
18.4%
@ 3.09-10.5%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 3.32-5.0%
Padova +1
59.7%
@ 2.02+15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Superbet
3.00
Draw
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.25
Away
Marathonbet
2.09
Superbet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Handicap +1 (Pisa)Actual: Draw
Pisa +1
71.4%
@ 1.16-5.3%
Draw +1
17.5%
@ 5.81+2.2%
Padova -1
11.1%
@ 11.15+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
5.60
Marathonbet
4.35
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Handicap +2 (Pisa)Actual: Pisa
Pisa +2
88.9%
@ 1.02-3.6%
Draw +2
7.9%
@ 17.00+2.4%
Padova -2
3.1%
@ 50.50+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Betfair
19.00
Bet365
15.00
Away
Betfair
67.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pisa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.13
0.47
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
1.00
0.00
0.43
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.65
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Padova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.38
0.56
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.90
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pisa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
71.0%
@ 1.42+5.7%
Under 0.5
29.0%
@ 2.68-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
William Hil
2.75
Superbet
2.72
10Bet
2.65
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.0%
@ 3.02+3.1%
Under 1.5
66.0%
@ 1.35-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.14
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Under
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 7.69+0.9%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.06-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pisa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.2%
@ 1.80+3.7%
Under
44.8%
@ 1.91-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Pisa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.8%
@ 4.91+3.0%
Under
78.2%
@ 1.14-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Superbet
4.75
Under
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Pisa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 13.58-2.6%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Padova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.5%
@ 2.84+2.9%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.38-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.84
Marathonbet
2.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Padova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 10.74-1.3%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.03+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Padova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 50.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pisa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.17
0.47
1.13
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.62
0.29
1.43
0.00
1.83
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.82
0.62
0.88
0.33
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Padova) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Padova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.69
0.56
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.55
0.80
0.30
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pisa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.27+7.5%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 3.50-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
47.9%
@ 2.24+6.4%
Under 1.5
52.1%
@ 1.60-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.1%
@ 4.92+1.2%
Under 2.5
79.9%
@ 1.15-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.20
William Hil
5.00
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pisa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
63.8%
@ 1.56+4.4%
Under
36.2%
@ 2.29-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Pisa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.1%
@ 3.61+1.5%
Under
72.9%
@ 1.25-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.75
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Under
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Pisa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 9.00-1.0%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.04+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
Padova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.7%
@ 2.36+2.5%
Under
58.3%
@ 1.52-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
Under
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Padova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 8.03-0.2%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.05+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
Marathonbet
8.20
Superbet
8.00
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Padova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 33.00-97.8%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.6%
1.31
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+13.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.2%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.23
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.9%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.0%
1.22
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.2%
1.14
Superbet
1.15
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.3%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.9%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
-
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
71.4%
1.16
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
-9.3%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
71.4%
1.16
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
-5.3%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
71.1%
1.18
888Sport
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
-7.6%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.0%
1.42
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
+5.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pisa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giuseppe Leone33%
Simone Canestrelli33%
Matteo Tramoni0%
Mehdi Léris0%
Antonio Caracciolo0%
Simone Zanon0%
Isak Vural0%
Emanuele Rao0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isak Vural67%
Simone Zanon33%
Matteo Tramoni0%
Mehdi Léris0%
Antonio Caracciolo0%
Giuseppe Leone0%
Simone Canestrelli0%
Emanuele Rao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matteo Tramoni33%
Mehdi Léris33%
Antonio Caracciolo0%
Giuseppe Leone0%
Simone Zanon0%
Simone Canestrelli0%
Isak Vural0%
Emanuele Rao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Matteo Tramoni100%
Mehdi Léris33%
Antonio Caracciolo0%
Giuseppe Leone0%
Simone Zanon0%
Simone Canestrelli0%
Isak Vural0%
Emanuele Rao0%
Padova
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pietro Fusi33%
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Christian Pastina0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Alessandro Dellavalle0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christian Pastina33%
Pietro Fusi33%
Alessandro Dellavalle33%
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Christian Pastina0%
Pietro Fusi0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Alessandro Dellavalle0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gianluca Caprari0%
Kevin Lasagna0%
Lorenzo Carissoni0%
Mattia Bortolussi0%
Christian Pastina0%
Pietro Fusi0%
Alessandro Sorrentino0%
Marco Pompetti0%
Emanuele Zuelli0%
Alessandro Dellavalle0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Pisa's squad is €46m more valuable than Padova's (€71m vs €25m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Pisa's attack is €17m more valuable than Padova's (€24m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Pisa's midfield is €19m more valuable than Padova's (€26m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Pisa's defence is €10m more valuable than Padova's (€22m vs €12m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Mantova
Palermo
Cesena
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Avellino
Arezzo
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Carrarese
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
Cremonese