Port Vale enter the match after a 1-1 draw with Tranmere, a result that keeps their recent form balanced, while Crewe arrive on a two-game winning streak that has lifted them to a 1-0 victory over Northampton. The model’s most likely outcome is a Draw, with a 36% chance, followed by a 34% home win and a 31% away win. The expected total goals hover at 1.8, and the most probable total of goals is 2, a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with an 18.1% chance, reflecting the tight defensive match-ups.
Port Vale’s home form against similar opposition shows 0.92 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, whereas Crewe’s away form yields 1.36 scored and 1.29 conceded. The model’s suggested picks lean heavily toward low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.8% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (99.0% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8% with a 7% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.6% with a 10% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 4% edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Port Vale and Crewe settled for a 0-0 draw, matching the favoured outcome. With a 36% chance of a draw, the model’s pick was correct, while the 34% home-win and 31% away-win probabilities were not realised. The match was a low-scoring affair, yet every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Under 5.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6%). Port Vale’s recent form of DDLLL and Crewe’s DLWWW both ended with a stalemate, extending their respective run of draws. The model’s selections dominated the outcome, confirming its accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Port Vale win✗ Miss
33.7%
Avg Implied 42.0% · @ 2.21
Edge
-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Dafabet
2.24
1xBet
2.23
Draw✓ Hit
35.7%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.37
Edge
+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.57
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.42
Crewe win✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.06
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.20
10Bet
3.15
Superbet
3.15
Betfair
3.10
Betano
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Port Vale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.43
0.62
0.81
0.79
2.14
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.67
0.75
0.25
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (21)
0.71
1.33
0.58
1.00
0.89
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
1.33
0.93
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
-
-
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.21
1.10
1.33
0.93
1.07
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
54.7%
@ 1.27-18.6%
Under 1.5
45.3%
@ 3.49+18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.71
Superbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.6%
@ 1.88-23.3%
Under 2.5
73.4%
@ 1.87+23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.90
SBO
1.90
Betfair
1.90
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.7%
@ 3.17-18.7%
Under 3.5
89.3%
@ 1.32+18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.31
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Unibet
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Under
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
36.2%
@ 1.69-18.6%
No
63.8%
@ 2.05+18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.71
William Hil
1.70
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
No
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Betano
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 ✓
18.1%@ 9.83+13.5%
1-1
14.7%@ 6.09+7.4%
1-0
14.1%@ 7.53+8.2%
0-1
13.1%@ 9.21+8.3%
2-0
7.1%@ 10.26+2.8%
0-2
6.3%@ 14.74+3.3%
2-1
6.2%@ 8.30+0.8%
1-2
5.8%@ 10.04+1.4%
Port Vale goals ↓
Crewe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
13%
6.3%
1.8%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
5.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
7.1%
6.2%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
3
2.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Port Vale goals (down), columns = Crewe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Port Vale is 0.17 points better than Crewe in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Port Vale is 0.13 goals better than Crewe in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Port Vale is 0.17 goals better than Crewe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Port Vale
For 5.2 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crewe
For 5.4 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.2 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Port Vale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.7
10.1
3.4
3.6
3.3
21.7
22.5
20.8
vs Stronger (15)
11.1
10.4
12.0
2.9
3.2
2.4
20.1
22.6
17.3
vs Similar (35)
10.1
10.8
9.3
3.7
3.7
3.6
22.4
22.4
22.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
58%
65%
48%
56%
39%
49%
54%
43%
% under line
39%
42%
35%
52%
44%
61%
51%
46%
57%
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.0
10.2
3.8
3.5
4.0
25.1
27.4
22.8
vs Stronger (2)
17.0
-
17.0
2.0
-
2.0
20.0
-
20.0
vs Similar (48)
9.3
9.0
9.6
3.8
3.5
4.2
25.3
27.4
23.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
50%
64%
48%
44%
52%
73%
88%
60%
% under line
43%
50%
36%
52%
56%
48%
27%
12%
40%
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.0
York
12.0
Swindon
11.2
Grimsby
10.6
Walsall
10.5
Rochdale
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Chesterfield
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Barnet
10.2
Northampton
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.2
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Rotherham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.4
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Newport County
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Salford
3.7
Grimsby
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Barnet
3.6
Cheltenham
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.3
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Salford
24.8
Rochdale
24.0
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Barnet
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.1
Tranmere
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Walsall
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.7
Accrington
22.2
Cheltenham
22.1
Chesterfield
22.0
Northampton
22.0
Exeter
22.0
Port Vale
21.7
Swindon
20.4
York
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.0%
@ 1.84+12.8%
Under 9.5
37.0%
@ 1.86-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.86
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.3%
Under 3.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
59.5%
Under 21.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Port Vale or Draw✓ Hit
69.4%
Avg Implied 69.5% · @ 1.34
Edge
-0.1%
34%
36%
31%
covers Port Vale + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
William Hil
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Port Vale or Crewe✗ Miss
64.3%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.28
Edge
-8.4%
34%
36%
31%
covers Port Vale + Crewe
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Crewe✓ Hit
66.3%
Avg Implied 57.8% · @ 1.61
Edge
+8.5%
34%
36%
31%
covers Draw + Crewe
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
William Hil
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.62
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Port Vale over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.2%
@ 1.23-15.5%
Under
39.8%
@ 3.82+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.96
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.84
Port Vale over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
23.6%
@ 2.14-19.9%
Under
76.4%
@ 1.65+19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
BetVictor
2.15
Under
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Port Vale over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 4.67-13.2%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.16+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
BetVictor
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Port Vale over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 10.92-7.2%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.04+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Crewe over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
57.9%
@ 1.34-11.4%
Under
42.1%
@ 3.03+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.14
1xBet
3.04
Marathonbet
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Crewe over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
21.5%
@ 2.69-13.0%
Under
78.5%
@ 1.42+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.76
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
Under
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Crewe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 6.54-8.4%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.08+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.50
Superbet
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Crewe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 16.25-4.7%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.02+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Port Vale, so a minus line means Port Vale give that many goals of a start and Crewe receive them. At -1, Port Vale must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Port Vale win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Port Vale)Actual: Crewe
Port Vale -2
3.4%
@ 9.13-6.4%
Draw -2
9.2%
@ 6.25-5.1%
Crewe +2
87.4%
@ 1.18+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Handicap -1 (Port Vale)Actual: Crewe
Port Vale -1
12.6%
@ 4.19-8.7%
Draw -1
21.1%
@ 3.80-2.4%
Crewe +1
66.3%
@ 1.62+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Away
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Handicap +1 (Port Vale)Actual: Port Vale
Port Vale +1
69.4%
@ 1.34+2.8%
Draw +1
19.8%
@ 4.61+0.3%
Crewe -1
10.9%
@ 6.38-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Superbet
6.10
Handicap +2 (Port Vale)Actual: Port Vale
Port Vale +2
89.1%
@ 1.09+4.8%
Draw +2
8.1%
@ 9.20-1.8%
Crewe -2
2.8%
@ 16.00-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.10
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Port Vale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.50
0.38
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
0.75
0.25
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.48
0.42
0.42
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
0.52
0.55
0.67
0.60
0.36
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
65.3%
@ 1.36-2.9%
Under 0.5
34.7%
@ 2.92+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.07
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.1%
@ 2.71-5.1%
Under 1.5
70.9%
@ 1.41+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
Betano
2.82
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.0%
@ 6.72-3.8%
Under 2.5
90.0%
@ 1.08+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Superbet
6.60
1xBet
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.3%
@ 1.91-2.1%
Under
53.7%
@ 1.80+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
Unibet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Under
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Port Vale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 5.68-4.6%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.11+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Betano
5.60
Superbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Port Vale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 15.50-3.8%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Crewe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.9%
@ 2.20-5.2%
Under
63.1%
@ 1.60+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.22
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.16
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Crewe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 7.34-4.2%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.06+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.80
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Crewe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 27.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Port Vale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.13
0.83
0.12
0.44
0.14
1.29
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.19
0.86
0.17
0.58
0.22
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.67
0.33
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.69
0.55
0.67
0.33
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.22-1.0%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 3.85+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.95
Superbet
3.85
1xBet
3.78
Marathonbet
3.78
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.2%
@ 2.07-7.8%
Under 1.5
62.8%
@ 1.69+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
William Hil
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.68
William Hil
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 4.39-5.8%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.18+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Superbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.1%
@ 1.67-2.4%
Under
46.9%
@ 2.08+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.71
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Under
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
1.99
Port Vale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.6%
@ 4.27-5.2%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.19+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Port Vale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 10.67-5.1%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.03+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Crewe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.6%
@ 1.87-7.8%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.83+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Under
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Crewe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 5.43-5.9%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.12+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.65
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Crewe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 15.58-3.9%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
99.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
96.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
+11.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.3%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.3%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Superbet
1.09
BetVictor
1.07
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
89.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.34
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
+18.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.11
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.5%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
+13.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
76.4%
1.65
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
+19.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
-1.0%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.3%
1.50
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.46
+12.9%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.41
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
+5.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Port Vale
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Garrity33%
C. Humphreys25%
Kyle Dempsey25%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Crewe
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Lankester33%
Josh March33%
Adrien Thibaut25%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mickey Demetriou33%
Josh March33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Charlie McNeill0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lewis Billington50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Jordan Gibson0%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Calum Agius0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jordan Gibson50%
Charlie McNeill33%
Calum Agius25%
Luke Offord0%
Jack Lankester0%
Reece Hutchinson0%
Mickey Demetriou0%
Josh March0%
Joel Tabiner0%
Matúš Holíček0%
Lewis Billington0%
Tom Booth0%
Adrien Thibaut0%
Joshua Stephenson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Port Vale's squad is €3m more valuable than Crewe's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Port Vale and Crewe have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Port Vale and Crewe have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Port Vale's defence is €2m more valuable than Crewe's (€3m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington